450
FXUS63 KDLH 140640
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
140 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance of showers and storms returns Friday night through
  Saturday. Several additional rounds of precip are possible
  Monday night through Wednesday.

- Widespread rainfall amounts will be low, generally less than
  0.05"

- A few storms may become strong Saturday and Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

An expansive area of high pressure was located over the Canadian
Prairies early this morning and extended into the Upper Midwest.
Skies were mainly clear across the Northland with most locations
reporting calm winds. Areas of fog were developing as well,
mainly across northwest Wisconsin. The signal for fog elsewhere
has diminished, but with very small dewpoint depressions, would
not be surprised to see more form. With high pressure remaining
in control today, little change was made to the going forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Tonight and Friday:

Relatively quiet conditions persist. Rain chances dwindled
although there may be enough moisture convergence tonight near
MN/WI Highway 70 to support a few showers. Isolated patches of
dense fog are possible near the Iron Range, North Shore, and
portions of NW WI. Strong northeast winds are forecast over
western Lake Superior Friday which will increase the risk of rip
currents near the Twin Ports including the beaches of Duluth
and Superior. A Beach Hazards Statement will eventually be
needed. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal with
highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s away from Lake Superior. Onshore
flow and a lake breeze near the lake will keep temperatures
cooler in those locations.

Friday night through Saturday night:

A weak area of low pressure will propagate northeastward from
the northern Plains across the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
Two rounds of showers and perhaps a few isolated storms are
possible. Saturday afternoon and evening has a small potential
for a few strong storms. NAM and NAMNest guidance both produce a
narrow ribbon of MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg though the GFS has a
deeper moist adiabatic layer and virtually no instability. Long
roughly straight hodographs seem to support a modest potential
for large hail and perhaps a few strong wind gusts. Forcing
appears broad and unfocused and with limited instability
anything other than isolated storms would limit the potential
for severe weather. Highs will trend a little cooler thanks to
the loitering cloud cover from the overnight showers and storms
and will top out in the low 70s along the North Shore to the
upper 70s for portions of central Minnesota and northwest
Wisconsin.

Sunday through Monday:

High pressure will slowly drift through the region Sunday and
Monday which will provide quieter conditions. Highs remain near
normal in the low 70s to low or middle 80s.

Monday night through Thursday night:

Several rain and storm chances return for the extended period.
A cold front will sag southward across the region Tuesday.
Storms may develop in the eastern Dakotas Monday afternoon and
evening and could move into the Northland overnight which would
bring the first chance of showers and storms. The next chance of
precipitation would be along the cold front Tuesday. The front
will stall out on Wednesday and may lift northward again as a
warm front Wednesday night and Thursday, which would support
another chance of showers and storms. Temperatures during the
period trend toward the cooler portion of the normal range with
highs in the low to upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. There
will be some dense fog this morning in spots, but the overall
signal has decreased and may not impact any of the terminals.
With high pressure in place, easterly winds will be around 10
knots or less.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Easterly winds are expected to increase today with gusts to 20
to 30 knots in the western arm of the lake and along the South
Shore and Outer Apostle Islands. Small Craft Advisories remain
in effect into tonight. Winds will weaken overnight before
increasing again Saturday afternoon with gusts to 15 to 25 knots
in the western arm of the lake. Small Craft Advisories may be
needed.

Dry conditions will prevail for today and tonight with showers
and a few thunderstorms becoming possible on Saturday into
Saturday night. No strong or severe storms are expected, but
cloud-to-water lightning and locally gusty winds will be
possible.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 140 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

A mix of clouds and sun today with highs in the 70s to middle
80s. Afternoon RH values will fall into the 35 to 45% range with
generally light winds with high pressure in control. However, a
lake breeze is expected to push inland during the afternoon and
may feature gusts to 15 to 20 mph as it passes. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms will be possible starting Friday night
and remaining possible through Saturday evening. Rainfall totals
continue to trend downward with most areas seeing less than
0.05". Higher amounts are possible north of a Backus to Bigfork
to Crane Lake line. High pressure then returns for Sunday and
Monday with good mixing conditions expected. Monday has the best
potential to see afternoon RH values fall into the 35 to 40%
range across parts of northwest Wisconsin and the Minnesota
Arrowhead.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for LSZ121-147-148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 AM CDT
     Saturday for LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJH
DISCUSSION...Huyck
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH