111
FXUS63 KDLH 130722
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
222 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures are expected for
  early week. Exception could be inland northwest Wisconsin for
  light rain Tuesday night.

- Rain chances return Thursday and last into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Surface low pressure over far northern Ontario and a mid-level
supporting closed low over central Manitoba early this morning
is moving a cold front over the Upper Great Lakes presently. A
wind shift to westerly is occurring and these gusty winds will
last into the daylight hours today. Expect westerly winds to
gust 20 to 25 mph along and north of US Hwy 2 in northwest
Wisconsin and across most of northern Minnesota this morning.
Winds will then decrease from south to north this afternoon.
These westerly wind gusts to 20 mph last into the early
overnight hours for the Borderlands and especially Arrowhead.
Temperatures tonight are very likely to dip into the mid-20s
north of MN 200, but remain in the mid to upper-30s where those
overnight winds keep the airmass mixed in the Arrowhead and
further south of MN 210. Slightly warmer, but still just below
freezing temperatures are favored then over northwest Wisconsin
tonight outside of the Bayfield Peninsula.

High pressure sets up to create largely no rainfall chances
Today through Wednesday. The exception may be a band of light
rainfall in central Minnesota to west- central Wisconsin
Tuesday night that may create a few scattered rain showers along
and south of WI/MN Hwy 70 over inland northwest Wisconsin.

Seasonable temperatures through Wednesday yields to the next
warming period Thursday and Friday. This late work week period
will be accompanied by a moisture surge as a deep western US
trough moves eastward and a surface low pressure system forms
and deepens over the northern US Plains. As a result, rainfall
chances build back into the Northland from southwest to
northeast Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The first band
of rainfall moves through Thursday, with additional off-and-on
rain bands possible lasting into the weekend as the progged then
stacked surface to mid-level low pressure sits over the
ND/MN/MB border region Friday and Saturday. This setup may even
last into Sunday with wrap-around widely scattered rain showers
being more so favored at that point and temperatures being near
normal for mid-October.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

A band of rainfall in the Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin exit
northeast of the region over the next few hours, with trailing
IFR and MVFR ceilings at terminals. Expect these ceilings to
also scour out after a few hours at each terminal, outside of
the Borderlands where they will linger into Mid-day today;
expect ceilings to lift last at INL from 17-19Z today. There is
another round of gusty westerly winds behind the rain-producing
cold front that will be most noticeable along and north of US
Hwy 2 in the Northland through mid-afternoon Monday and then
taper into the late afternoon hours.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 159 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Southwest winds will gust to 25 knots over much of the western
waters early this morning before slowly decreasing in speed for
most areas into mid-day. Segmented Small Craft Advisories will
slowly drop off in two different sets today as a result. After
the residual wave heights come down last offshore of Grand
Marais to Grand Portage this evening, light winds and calm seas
are forecast for Tuesday under high pressure...these conditions
even look favorable for Wednesday too.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     141>145-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140-
     146-147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NLy
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy