Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 171121

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
621 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

Very warm temperatures are expected today with a few showers or
thunderstorms in far northern Minnesota. Low humidity is again
expected today before values rise through the week with increasing
rain chances. Above normal temperatures are expected through the

A very warm day is expected across most of the Northland with
highs from the upper seventies to mid eighties. Winds will be
south to southwest but not be very strong. We expect cooler
temperatures along the North Shore. The high-res guidance
suggests a lake breeze will be limited to the North Shore, but
given how warm it will get and how cool the lake is, it`s possible
a weak lake breeze could develop elsewhere late this afternoon.
Good mixing is expected which will lead to low humidities. Winds
will be a limiting factor in producing critical fire weather
conditions. However, we do expect some gusts of 15 to 20 mph given
the deep mixing. Most areas will be dry today but weak low level
convergence, weak instability, and steep low level lapse rates
will lead to a few showers and thunderstorms over far northern
Minnesota, especially the Arrowhead where the RAP forecasts the
strongest low level convergence.

The showers/storms will dissipate this evening with clear
conditions developing overnight. Increasing low level moisture and
a shortwave aloft will bring chances for showers to southern
portions of the Northland Tuesday afternoon. We delayed their
arrival as the models are trending slower. It will again be warm
Tuesday with highs in the mid seventies to lower eighties. Winds
will be south to southeast for most areas but east to northeast
over and close to Lake Superior which will keep lakeside areas
cooler. Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to be
possible Tuesday night, highest over our eastern areas.

An upper trough will continue to move east from the western
CONUS/Canada through the week causing winds to become increasingly
southerly aloft over our region. We have rain and thunderstorm
chances continuing Wednesday but coverage should be limited until
late in the day and especially Wednesday night when a stronger
shortwave arrives. Rain chances will be highest Wednesday night
into Thursday night. An unsettled period will continue Friday into
the weekend with rain chances continuing as additional shortwaves
affect the region along with a higher moisture airmass in place.
PWAT values will rise over an inch and be as high as 1.75 inches
mid week into next weekend. Rainfall over the next week should be
from a half inch to an inch and a half. Any areas affected by
stronger thunderstorms could see higher amounts. Temperatures will
remain above normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

VFR conditions expected through the period with a high pressure
ridge overhead keeping winds below 10 knots and skies mostly
clear. Patchy fog possible for the next hour or so, but any
visibility restrictions should be short lived.


Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021

Winds for most areas will be south to southwest today from 5 to 15
knots with some higher gusts along the North Shore. Some local
lake breezes may set up later this afternoon due to the very warm
temperatures expected. The wind will become more easterly early
this evening and especially overnight with speeds less than 15
knots. Winds will continue east to northeast Tuesday at or below
15 knots.

Some fog and stratus will occur this morning, mostly along the
North Shore. Much of the fog will lift through the morning. A few
showers or thunderstorms will develop along the North Shore this


DLH  80  51  73  53 /  10  10  10  30
INL  84  52  81  54 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  82  52  77  56 /   0  10  20  10
HYR  80  48  77  55 /   0  10  30  40
ASX  82  49  79  54 /  10  10  10  40




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