Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 152330
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
630 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Updated for the 00Z Aviation discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

A closed upper low was located over Minnesota this afternoon. Its
associated surface low was over southern Wisconsin. Rain covered a
majority of the forecast area as strong impulses were rotating
around the base of the upper low and across the region. Boundary
layer temps were warm all day, which resulted in no snow. As the
closed low reaches lower Michigan tonight, the impulses weaken and
become less organized. A northerly flow over Lake Superior is
forecast tonight, but cold air advection is not very deep and water
temps are warm. Some lake enhanced rain showers will occur downwind
of the lake. A rain/snow mix is possible in the evening in north
central Wisconsin with no accumulation expected. Channeled vorticity
follows behind the closed low late tonight and will generate a few
rain showers over northeast Minnesota. The thermal profile does not
promote snow overnight.

The northerly flow continues on Wednesday, albeit with neutral
temperature advection. The channeled vorticity will drift east of
the forecast area by Wednesday afternoon. Additional isolated rain
showers may occur, especially over Iron County in northwest
Wisconsin in the morning. Upper level and surface ridging move over
the area in the afternoon and remain nearby through Wednesday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Temperatures will trend warmer Thursday and Friday. Near to
slightly above normal readings are expected to continue through
the weekend. An area of low pressure will bring a chance of rain
and snow, and possibly a few thunderstorms, to the region early
next week.

Upper-level ridging is forecast over the central of the continent
Thursday and Friday which will usher in a period of warmer
temperatures for the end of this week. Strong 850 mb warm air
advection is forecast, especially on Thursday. Mixing to around
850 mb is forecast for Thursday and will be shallower on Friday
ahead of a surface cold front. Winds will be gusty from the south
both days. Highs on Thursday will reach middle 40s in the high
terrain of the North Shore to the middle 50s in central
Minnesota. Leaned on the 90th percentile of the guidance for
temps. Highs on Friday will be warmer again and we opted for the
GFS max temps, which yield readings in the upper 40s along the
north shore to the low 60s south. A shortwave trough will move
through the region Friday night, which may provide a few rain
showers late Friday night through Saturday. Temperatures will be
similar for Saturday with highs in the low 50s to low 60s.

Attention then shifts to a low pressure system slated to arrive
Sunday night and Monday morning. A longwave trough will move
across the Rockies and into the Plains Sunday. Lee cyclogenesis
is forecast over eastern Wyoming and eastern Colorado with the
surface low expected to lift toward the Upper Midwest by Monday
afternoon. Forecast details vary depending on your model of
choice, but the trend continues to point to a potential for rain
and snow showers late Sunday night through Monday night, possibly
continuing into Tuesday. There is a potential for a few rumbles
of thunder over northwest Wisconsin Monday ahead of the advancing
low. Temperatures will trend cooler Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 629 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Rain lingering over northwest Wisconsin and parts of northeast
Minnesota is associated with a strong low pressure system over far
northeast Wisconsin. MVFR ceilings linger over most of the
terminals as of issuance time. Showers should linger through 05z
tonight, gradually diminishing and moving out of the area by 08z
as the low pressure system moves off to the east of the area. I
expect the MVFR ceilings to linger through much of the TAF time
range, but lifting to VFR around 22z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Low pressure centered northeast Wisconsin this afternoon will
continue to intensify as it moves over northern Lake Michigan and
northern Lower Michigan tonight. Strong northeast winds will back
northerly and eventually northwesterly by late tonight. Wind
speeds of 10 to 25 knots will gradually relax tonight. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Twin Ports and the south
shore waters through tonight. By sunrise Wednesday winds will be
in the 5 to 15 knot range. Surface pressure rises are expected
for the remainder of the forecast period with winds remaining
below 20 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  45  35  50 /  20   0   0   0
INL  36  42  31  52 /  30  10   0   0
BRD  37  45  33  55 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  37  46  33  52 /  60  10   0   0
ASX  37  46  35  52 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     144>147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Wednesday for LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...LE
MARINE...Huyck


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