Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 231136

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
636 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

.DISCUSSION...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 431 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Summary: frost/freeze conditions will continue this morning before
improving around 8 AM CDT. Generally dry conditions, but partly to
mostly cloudy skies, will continue today and Tuesday. Widespread
chances of rain showers will return Wednesday, lasting into
Thursday. Another opportunity for showers and thunderstorms move in
for next weekend.

Frost/freeze conditions will continue this morning as an area of
high pressure remains just to the south of the Northland, leading to
light winds and some clear skies in places. Latest GOES-East
satellite imagery shows a stratus cloud deck expanding in coverage
due to increasing moisture around the 700 mb level. Where the
cloud cover is thickest, temperatures have warmed into the upper
30s into the 40s for temperatures, likely bringing the threat of
frost to an end there. However, temperatures at or below freezing
continue to be observed where skies remain clear. In any case, we
will continue the Freeze Warning/Frost Advisory through 8 AM CDT
this morning. Today will be a nearly carbon-copy of Sunday, albeit
slightly warmer. Mostly dry conditions are expected today, with
the exception of over the Arrowhead region and west across the
Borderland as another layer of stratocumulus is expected to
develop, which could lead to some very light rain showers in those
areas. I did increase the sky cover today, as most of the
deterministic models are progging surface temperatures warm enough
to reach the convective temperature values. Additionally, there
remains a pretty strong signal in the high-resolution ensembles
(HREF) for this stratocumulus deck to form. High temperatures
today will range from the middle 50s along the North Shore to the
lower to middle 60s farther inland. A mid-level shortwave impulse
does appear to form out of North Dakota, translating across far
north-central Minnesota tonight, so there will be some chances of
light rain showers across Koochiching county and northern St.
Louis counties.

Dry conditions are expected to continue on Tuesday, although it is
expected to be warmer still, with highs in the middle to upper
60s for most locations. Then, attention turns to our most likely
chances for widespread rain showers on Wednesday. A longwave
upper-level trough will amplify across the Intermountain West
states, resulting in cyclogenesis over the southern Plains states.
The resulting surface low will eventually make its way northward
towards the western Great Lakes. Since the Northland is expected
to be in the inverted surface trough area of the low, instability
will be very limited, so we`re only expecting some rain showers
out of this system. Broad large-scale forcing, as shown by
increased omega in the Thaler QG fields, should lead to widespread
chances of rain showers. It appears the best moisture transport
will be over northwest Wisconsin, so we`re expecting the bulk of
the rainfall to occur there. As of this forecast update, total QPF
amounts of 0.75" or more are expected over northwest Wisconsin,
gradually tapering off to the northwest, away from the surface
low. Some areas of far north-central Minnesota might see little,
if any, rainfall from this system, which is good news, considering
the ongoing flooding issues over the Rainy River basin.

Another chance of showers, and even some thunderstorms, are expected
to return sometime next weekend, but there remains much uncertainty
regarding the timing and spatial coverage of the showers/storms.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

Very similar forecast from yesterday, with VFR conditions expected
throughout the TAF period. We will continue to see mostly cloudy
skies today, thanks to a stratus deck in place across the region.
Where we have some clearing spots will likely develop some diurnal
cumulus clouds, remaining VFR. A weak trough of low pressure will
pass over INL late tonight, bringing chances of light rain
showers. Southwest winds today, generally around 5 to 10 knots for
most locations.


Issued at 431 AM CDT Mon May 23 2022

No hazardous marine conditions are anticipated over the next 48
hours. An area of high pressure will remain over the western Great
Lakes through the day Tuesday, leading to generally light and
southerly winds through Tuesday night. Wind speeds will range
between 5 to 10 knots for most locations. Winds are expected to turn
more northeasterly Wednesday morning, lasting through Wednesday
night, as an area of low pressure makes its way towards Lake
Superior. These winds will strengthen Wednesday afternoon and
evening, leading to building waves along the South Shore. Expect
hazardous conditions for small craft beginning Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday morning.


DLH  62  44  67  45 /  10   0   0  10
INL  63  45  69  43 /  20  40  10   0
BRD  64  44  68  48 /  10  10  10  20
HYR  64  42  69  43 /  10   0  10  30
ASX  63  42  68  43 /  10   0  10  20


WI...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ003-004-008-

     Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001-002-006-

MN...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ011-012-019.

     Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ010-018-020-



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