275
FXUS63 KDLH 141135
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
635 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will be well above normal through much of the
  next week, at times 10-15F above normal.

- There will be a chance, 20-50%/15-30%, for
  showers/thunderstorms today into tonight.

- Periodic chances for more showers/thunderstorms will continue
  into next week but no widespread significant rainfall is
  expected into late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

A pattern featuring temperatures above normal, well above at
times, will continue through much of the next week. The upper
pattern will feature ridging over the northeast CONUS with an
upper trough developing and moving into the West Coast through
the weekend. The Northland will be under southwest flow aloft
through much of the next week but no strong systems are
expected into late week.

A cold front will move toward the Northland today but stall and
weaken before it gets too far east into the Northland. Area
radar showed a line of showers and a few thunderstorms extending
north to south through western Minnesota. Most of the guidance
has this line moving slowly east and lifting north with most of
the rainfall remaining west of our CWA. Radar trends however
suggest western counties will get clipped by the rain and we
have some low POPS there this morning. Chances for more showers
will develop further east into the Northland including northwest
Wisconsin. PWAT values will rise to 1.2-1.6" from eastern
Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Chances for showers and a
few thunderstorms will increase today and range from 20-50%.
Significant rainfall is unlikely as the coverage of the
showers/storms will be low. Most of the showers/storms will end
this evening. Fog early this morning, especially around Lake
Superior, will lift by mid to late morning then return tonight.

There will be periodic chances for more showers and
thunderstorms into next week with the above normal temperatures
and moisture continuing. Despite the chances for rain,
significant rainfall is not expected as most of the systems
affecting the region will not be particularly strong. A look at
the ECMWF ensemble members through late next week reveals most
members forecasting weekly rainfall amounts less than a half
inch. However, there may be an opportunity for a stronger
system sometime in the Friday-Sunday period of next week as the
western trough moves into the region and develops a stronger
surface low.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Patchy fog will lift for most by 15Z leaving behind VFR
conditions. A very narrow band of showers extended from just
east of KBDE to KAQP was moving very slowly east and lifting
north. We think the showers will miss KBRD but may affect KINL.
This band of showers is expected to dissipate by mid to late
morning. More showers and a few thunderstorms will develop
further east over northern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
today. We have a mention in KDLH/KHYR/KHIB. The showers/storms
will dissipate this evening. However, isolated to scattered
showers may redevelop overnight over portions of northwest
Wisconsin.

More fog will also form later in the period, possibly leading to
IFR or lower conditions.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Easterly winds will occur today and be from 5 to 15 knots for
most. The Twin Ports area has the best chance at seeing the
stronger wind. Fog will occur this morning but is expected to
lift through the morning. We will continue a Dense Fog Advisory
for the far southwest arm of the lake through 10 AM CDT. A few
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening.
Severe weather is not expected. The wind will decrease tonight
then be about 5 to 15 knots again on Sunday. More fog will be
possible tonight as above normal moisture remains over the
region.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for LSZ143>146.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Melde
AVIATION...Melde
MARINE...Melde