560
FXUS63 KDLH 201746
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1246 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Persistent northeasterly winds will keep the threat for rip
  currents in place at Twin Port beaches this afternoon and
  Monday and may linger into mid-week as well.

- Chances for frost tonight before widespread frost and perhaps
  some areas of freeze for Monday night into Tuesday morning.

- Low chances for rainfall through the forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Strong low pressure was located over northwestern Ontario early this
afternoon with low pressure across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.
Between these features was a tight pressure gradient across the
Northland leading to breezy northeasterly winds, especially across
western Lake Superior. A weak cold front also stretched across lower
Michigan into Wisconsin with lingering low stratus behind the front.
Another area of low stratus was observed in areas along and north of
the Iron Range with a swath of clear skies from northern Cass County
into northern Aitkin County. The area of high pressure to our north
will drift southeast this afternoon into tonight and become centered
just to the north of Lake Superior. This will lead to diminishing
winds into tonight, but areas of low stratus are expected to linger.
Lows tonight will still be able to cool into the middle 30s to lower
40s and may lead to some patchy frost for areas along and north of
the Iron Range.

High pressure will remain in place for Monday with skies becoming
mostly sunny. Clear skies and light winds Monday night will allow
lows to cool into the 30s away from Lake Superior with 40s near the
lake. Some areas along and north of the Iron Range may cool to
around freezing, or perhaps just at bit below. A Frost Advisory will
likely be needed for most of the Northland for Monday night into
Tuesday morning with the potential for a Freeze Warning for
Koochiching and northern St. Louis counties.

Heading into Tuesday, the area of high pressure north of Lake
Superior will start to move to the east with southeasterly to
southerly flow setting up across the Northland. This will signal the
start of a slow warming trend across the region through the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. Highs Tuesday will be in
the 60s with some upper 50s along the North Shore with some onshore
flow expected. Lows Tuesday night will again be in the 30s away from
Lake Superior and another round of Frost Advisories may be possible.

Upper ridging will build in for the remainder of the week before
shifting to the east on Saturday. A shortwave will bring some shower
chances to the area on Thursday, but it will be running into high
pressure to the east and possibly dry air at the low levels.
Additional rainfall chances, albeit low, will be seen over the
weekend. Temperatures will reach into the 60s and lower 70s for
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

MVFR stratus continues to be slow to lift or scatter out across
much of the region. DLH is right on the edge of developing lake
effect stratus with onshore winds and may waffle between MVFR
and VFR through the remainder of the afternoon. Clearing is
expected to reach INL in the next few hours. Overall, a general
trend to VFR is expected by this evening with VFR conditions
then prevailing for the remainder of the period. Gusty easterly
to northeasterly winds this afternoon will diminish by late
afternoon and early evening and become light at 10 knots or less
overnight and into Monday. Before then, gusts to 20 to 25 knots
will be possible.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Northeast winds will diminish this evening to around 5 to 15
knots with gusts to 20 knots lingering at the head of the lake.
Waves of 2 to 4 feet may linger through the night, however. Small
Craft Advisories remain in effect into this evening. Easterly to
northeasterly winds persist for tomorrow, but will not be as strong.
Winds will be sustained at 5 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 to 25
knots, highest in the western arm. Additional Small Craft Advisories
may be need for Monday afternoon into early Monday evening. Tuesday
will be nearly a repeat of Monday with northeasterly winds at 5 to
15 knots, gusting to 20 to 25 knots, highest in the western arm.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Winds will remain the main concern this afternoon, especially
near Lake Superior. Gusts to 25 mph will be possible early this
afternoon before diminishing late this afternoon and evening.
Minimum RH values are expected to remain above 50%. Afternoon RH
values of 40-50% are expected for Monday and Tuesday. Values may
fall into the 30-40% range Tuesday afternoon across the Wisconsin
Pine Barrens. The next chance for rainfall will be Wednesday night
into Thursday.

See the Fire Weather Forecast product for a more thorough
breakdown of fire weather conditions.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ037.
WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM CDT this evening for
     WIZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ121-
     143>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...BJH
MARINE...BJH
FIRE WEATHER...BJH