782
FXUS63 KDLH 072015
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
215 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Arrowhead
  Monday morning through Monday night for 2 to 5 inches of snow.
  Around 1 to 3 inches of snow are expected elsewhere.

- More snow is expected Tuesday afternoon through early
  Wednesday with potential for widespread accumulating snow and
  difficult travel possible for the Tuesday afternoon and early
  Wednesday morning commute.

- Additional light snow episodes are possible late-week into
  next weekend along with cold air and below-zero temperatures
  likely at night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Pretty quiet weather out there this afternoon. There are some
lake-effect clouds in northwest wind affecting parts of NW
Wisconsin. Little impacts are expected from that with drier air
moving in from the west/northwest into tonightjust a bit of
light snow possible with minor accumulations. A very quick
clipper passes by to our south tonight as well. Some flurries
could graze north-central Minnesota.

Clipper #1:
Attention turns to the first clipper that moves in late Monday
afternoon and drops some light to perhaps occasionally moderate
snow Monday night, quickly moving out early Tuesday morning.
This is still looking like largely a 1-3 event, but some places
(especially in northeast Minnesota, particularly the Arrowhead)
could see some 4 to maybe 5 totals by Tuesday morning as a
lake-effect snow band moves onshore during Monday morning. This
will likely be mainly a shore-parallel lake-effect band, so
areas right along the shore from roughly Grand Marais to Grand
Portage will have the best chance of seeing some of those
locally higher totals. We did decide to issue Winter Weather
Advisories for the Arrowhead for the possibility for some of
these higher amounts. Its possible that some localized amounts
to 4 could happen for parts of Koochiching, North St. Louis,
and Central St. Louis counties as well, but confidence is not
high enough that advisory-level snows will fall at this time, so
headlines were not issued there. All-in-all, a quick-hitting
clipper.

Clipper #2:
The next clipper arrives Tuesday afternoon with some more snow
that should affect the evening commute. Still dealing with some
storm track differences among ensemble members with this one,
but generally it does continue to look more intense and more
capable of producing more widespread advisory snowfall amounts
for a good portion of the Northland. Some strong ascent
associated with warm air advection and frontogenesis ahead of
the low will likely produce a narrow band of higher snowfall
totals/rates Tuesday evening that could lead to some localized
~6 snowfall amounts. Where that happens could be anywhere
between Duluth and Hinckley and points roughly west-northwest
and east-southeast of that general line. Confidence is only
30-50% that such high totals (6 or more) could happen there,
and wherever they do happen will probably be in a narrow swath.
With such uncertainty still remaining, and also considering the
fact that we have the first clipper to deal with first, we
decided not to issue any Winter Storm Watches with this update.
If we were to do so, we would have to issue for too broad of an
area. Most likely, widespread Winter Weather Advisories will be
needed. Other factors influencing the decision not to issue a
Winter Storm Watch are that winds are not expected to be very
strong (a bit breezy, but it shouldnt cause widespread blowing
snow), and extreme cold is not expected to be a factor either.
If models do come into better agreement on a location for this
potentially locally heavier snow band, and if snowfall amounts
around or slightly in excess of 6 remain possible, then
additional headlines may be considered in later updates. The
best vertical ascent will be for several hours Tuesday evening,
and snowfall rates could reach around 1/hr for a few hours,
yielding the ~3-6 totals for many areas. Travel will likely
become difficult for the Tuesday evening commute and possibly
lingering into Wednesday morning. This second clipper will move
out Wednesday morning. Some lake-effect will probably persist
along the South Shore as winds turn north to northwesterly. Some
additional light accumulations will be possible there into
Wednesday night.

More Clippers?
Following the departure of the second system on Wednesday, we
are monitoring the potential for a third, weaker clipper late in
the week, though the track of that system remains uncertain.
Regardless, as these systems pass through, models suggest
dominant northwest flow, ushering arctic air into the region for
the weekend with lows potentially dropping well below zero
overnight again. Lake-effect will likely become a bit more
persistent along the South Shore as well later this week into
the weekend with all these clippers and cold air passing through
to keep the lake machine agitated.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

VFR conditions expected for this afternoon with clear skies.
After sunset, there is some signal in short-range models that
some fog could develop, especially so at HYR. Some MVFR
visibilities will be likely, and while IFR is not currently
expected, it can`t be completely ruled out briefly (~10%
chance). Expect increasing cloud coverage and lowering ceilings
later tonight as a clipper system passes by to the south. A
little light snow could graze BRD late tonight. Not currently
expecting visibility reductions, but a brief MVFR visibility
reduction due to snow can`t be completely ruled out. During
Monday morning, expect ceilings to lower to MVFR.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 215 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Southwest winds will ramp up on Monday ahead of the first
clipper system. Small Craft Advisories have been issued as gusts
are expected to approach 25 to 30 knots and waves build to 3 to
5 feet, particularly along the North Shore and Outer Apostle
Islands. Winds briefly lessen going into Tuesday morning. Then,
as another clipper system moves in Tuesday afternoon, expect
gusty northeast winds to develop, which will likely cause
hazardous conditions for small craft. There is a a 20 to 60
percent chance of gales (gusts over 34 knots) on Wednesday
morning as winds shift northerly behind the departing low.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 6 AM CST Tuesday
     for MNZ012-020-021.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 3 AM CST Tuesday for
     LSZ121-140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS