652
FNUS73 KDLH 312244
FWSDLH

Spot Forecast for BWCA SAR...St. Louis County EM
National Weather Service Duluth MN
544 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 CDT on May 31.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.

.DISCUSSION...

Search site and General Ely Forecast -

Mostly cloudy skies are expected tonight and there could be some
showers tonight as well though chances are somewhat low (up to
30% chance). Ely will have the best chance for seeing some
showers, and less likely (~10-15% chance) at the SAR location. A
stray lightning strike can`t be completely ruled out, but chances
are very low (~10% chance at Ely and <5% at the SAR location). Rainfall
amounts should be very light. Totals of a few hundredths of an
inch possible. Southwest winds persist tonight, with some
occasionally breezy conditions this evening tapering off in the
next few hours with gusts less than 10 mph tonight.

On Saturday, skies are expected to clear out for the most part in
the morning and early afternoon. Then, there`s a ~30% chance for
some showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the mid-afternoon. If
any storms develop, severe weather is not expected. There`s some
uncertainty about timing, but most likely around 2-4 PM. Rain
chances drop off going into Saturday night. Winds are expected to
become blustery, gusting around 20-25 mph from the west in the
afternoon before becoming light (<10 mph) after sunset. Skies are
expected to clear out Saturday night.

Ely Visibility and Ceilings -

Visibility is expected to be VFR (6 miles or greater) through the
period. The only possible exception to this would be very brief
chances for MVFR visibilities in passing showers, which could
occur tonight starting around midnight through sunrise, then again
Saturday afternoon. Despite plenty of cloud cover tonight,
ceilings are expected to remain VFR through the period.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the evening and overnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Chance of thunder...7 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Ceiling (kft).......25 decreasing to 7.3.
Visibility (sm).....10.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   10  20  20  20  20  30  30  30  30  20  10
Chc of thdr (%).0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  0   0
Temp............70  68  66  63  61  60  59  57  55  53  51  51
RH..............28  32  40  46  51  54  58  62  70  71  79  78
Surface wnd dir.SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   S   S
Surface wnd spd.7   6   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
Surface wnd gst.17  15  12  9   8   8   8   7   7   7   7   7
Ceiling (kft)...25  11  11  9.5 9.5 8.5 8.5 8.5 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3
Visibility (sm).10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Chance of thunder...20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........33 percent.
Surface winds (mph).Light winds becoming west 6 to 10 mph with
                    gusts to around 22 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Ceiling (kft).......8.5 increasing to 9.5 early in the morning,
                    then increasing to 12 early in the morning
                    increasing to 25 in the late morning and early
                    afternoon decreasing to 11 increasing to 25
                    late in the afternoon.
Visibility (sm).....10.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY  MCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....                            S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     30     20
Chc of thdr (%).0      10     10     10     20     20
Temp............51     57     66     70     72     72
RH..............81     72     51     40     35     33
Surface wind....S 2    SW 3   SW 7   SW 10  W 10   W 10
Surface wnd gst.7      8      13     18     21     21
Ceiling (kft)...8.5    12     25     25     11     25
Visibility (sm).10     10     10     10     10     10

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Chance of thunder...10 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........81 percent.
Surface winds (mph).West winds 6 to 9 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light.
Ceiling (kft).......25.
Visibility (sm).....10.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY     MCLEAR    MCLEAR    MCLEAR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10        0         0         0
Chc of thdr (%).10        0         0         0
Temp............71        62        54        48
RH..............33        50        65        78
Surface wind....W 9G18    W 4G9     SW 2G6    SW 2G6
Ceiling (kft)...25        25        25        25
Visibility (sm).10        10        10        10

$$
Forecaster...Josh
Requested by...Alex Rice
Type of request...SAR
.TAG 2414880.10/DLH
.DELDT 05/31/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL 7337@slcrs.org,kelvin.mccuskey@state.mn.us,BrinkmanJ@stlouiscountymn.gov,7296@slcrs.org,JohnsonD@stlouiscountymn.gov,7310@slcrs.org,Emergency@slcrs.org,7101@slcrs.org,7111@slcrs.org