102
FXUS63 KDMX 231115
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
615 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm, dry, and breezy today with highs in the mid to upper
  70s and winds gusting 25-30 mph across northern and western
  Iowa.

- Warmer weather continues on Saturday. A slow moving cold
  front will bring cooler temperatures in the upper 50s to low
  60s across northern Iowa on Sunday while the rest of the state
  continues to see mid 70s.

- Rain chances and relatively cooler temperatures return early
  next week, around Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Clear skies are in place across eastern and central Iowa early this
morning while an area of cloud cover is across western Iowa.
This cloud cover is associated with an area of convergence and
weak moisture plume on the eastern edge of the western US trough
that will continue to deepen as it slowly pushes into the
plains today. Meanwhile in the clearer areas to the east patchy
fog is developing in valleys and is notable on satellite, mainly
in far NE Iowa into southern Minnesota and Wisconsin. As the
western US trough deepens today the pressure gradient across
western Iowa increases with a 40+ kt 850mb jet setting up across
the plains. Dry low levels will allow for modest mixing, and
while we won`t tap the strongest winds, gusts of 25-30 mph will
be possible across northern and western Iowa through this
afternoon. With warm temperatures this afternoon in the mid to
upper 70s and relative humidity falling to around 35-45%, the
breezy conditions in northern and western Iowa will result in
heightened fire weather concerns for those areas. This is
primarily an agricultural concern with cured crops, whereas
grasses remain fairly green thanks in part to the wet September.

By Saturday the western US trough is expected to deepen into a
cutoff low across the southwest US, helping to ease the pressure
gradient across the plains and resulting in less breezy conditions.
The cold front gets hung up across South Dakota and Nebraska,
keeping Iowa dry with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s once
again.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

By Sunday the cold front begins to slip in far northern Iowa
with highs there in the upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday.
Meanwhile most of Iowa will be in the mid 70s once again on
Sunday. A few isolated showers are possible in northern Iowa on
Sunday, however dry air will mitigate most development. As the
cutoff low across the southwest US finally lifts into the
midwest Monday into Tuesday moisture increases and will allow
for spotty showers across the area. The cool front finally sinks
across the area bringing temperatures down into the 60s. There
will be a brief respite with weak mid-level ridging before the
stronger trough from the Pacific Northwest swings through our
region in the middle to end of next week. That system will push
a stronger surface trough through and sweep out most remaining
moisture from the earlier systems, bringing quieter autumn
weather for at least a couple of days afterward in the extended
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Breezy south-southeast
wind increases today sustained at 10-15 kts with gusts of
20-25+ kts expected across northern and central Iowa sites. Wind
tapers off after 00z. Scattered high clouds will pass across
Iowa through the period.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hagenhoff
LONG TERM...Hagenhoff/Lee
AVIATION...Hagenhoff