034
FXUS63 KDMX 140449
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1049 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low chance (~25% or less) for light rain across far southern
  Iowa Saturday.

- Mild temperatures in the 50s to near 60 this weekend. Warming
  further early next week, though uncertainty with warming
  extent in northern Iowa.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Tranquil conditions across Iowa this afternoon as weak surface high
pressure keeps the area sunny and dry. Mid and upper level
clouds stream into the area tonight as a larger upper level
trough swings across the central and southern plains. There is
the potential for patchy light fog development on Saturday
morning in northern Iowa north of any clouds across the area,
however with clouds quickly expanding expect that the window for
fog development in Iowa will be narrow. The southern system
will swing across Missouri on Saturday with the track of this
system remaining south of Iowa and only the far northern fringe
reaching the southern few tiers of Iowa on Saturday. With the
consistent southerly track, have pulled precipitation chances
further south to the Iowa-Missouri border. Any rain that does
fall across southern Iowa on Saturday will remain quite light.

Temperatures warm further on Sunday as skies clear. Expect a sunny
afternoon with highs near 60 across Iowa. As the thermal ridge
continues to build early next week temperatures will continue to
warm through the 60s with parts of southwest Iowa making another run
at 70. It is important to note here that while there is a consistent
signal for much above normal temperatures (normal is around 35 this
time of year), the extent of warming next week is less certain due
to the potential for stratus. As we look ahead to Monday and Tuesday
model soundings indicate the potential for mid and high clouds
at times across Iowa, especially northern Iowa. This could put
a serious damper on expected highs. The 13z run of the NBM
indicated a 6-8 degree temperatures spread from the 25th to 75th
percentile on Monday in northern Iowa (2-4 degrees in southern
Iowa). That spread on Tuesday increases to 10-15+ degrees across
all of Iowa. As an example, in Des Moines the forecast high
Tuesday is 61, however the NBM spread ranges from the 25th
percentile at 52F and the 75th percentile at 69F. These
differences are owed to amount of warm air into the state and
mixing, influences of cloud cover extent, and timing of an
incoming Wednesday system. Even 52 is well above average for Des
Moines this time of year, but would certainly feel much cooler
than the higher end of that range. While there is not confidence
at this time to adjust temperatures in either direction, it is
important to note the wide range of possibilities for
temperatures coming up.

As we reach mid week the western US trough will continue to dig,
ejecting a robust surface low into the midwest. This will be
the next chance for precipitation across Iowa, though changes
in the track could still result in notable differences to local
impacts. This is just the start of what may be an active
upcoming period late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Fog and low
stratus chances will increase after 06Z Saturday night into
Sunday morning, but this will be addressed in later TAF updates.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff
AVIATION...Lee