331
FXUS63 KDMX 291125
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
625 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

 ...Updated for the 12z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Calm and dry through Thursday night as high pressure sets in
  over the region.

- Rain chances return on Friday and continue into Saturday
  (50-60%) with the best chances along and south of Highway 30.

- Temperatures look to remain above normal for the next week
  with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 158 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

The cold front promised in yesterday`s forecast is currently making
its way across Iowa as noted with a windshift across much of the
state - winds out ahead of the front are from the southwest while
winds behind it are from the northeast. As expected, temperatures
are also a fair bit lower to the north where the front has already
passed. Even with temperatures in the 40s, much of northern and
western Iowa still looks to see above normal lows. As an aside,
while both the daily highs and lows are forecast to be above normal,
the European Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) shows that the magnitude
at which overnight lows will be above normal is higher than that of
the daily highs through much of the short and long term forecast
periods.

On the topic of temperatures, highs for the next few days were poked
down a degree or two. For today, the biggest uncertainty lies in the
forecast highs across southern Iowa. While skies behind the cold
front should generally be clear, cloud cover across southern Iowa
may linger for long enough that the highs near 70 won`t be realized.
Otherwise, today looks to be dry with light winds as high pressure
sets up camp just to our north in Minnesota/Wisconsin. The high
pressure will help bring flow from the north and east, leading to
cooler temperatures. The lows for tonight look to be normal-ish,
though still a bit warmer than normal for this time of year.

Friday brings the next potential for showers and thunderstorms as a
low will attempt to lift into the area from the southwest. Flow at
850mb looks to be out of the south providing moisture, although
uncertainty lies with how far north the low makes it, especially
given the potential influence of the high sitting to our northeast.
In other words, the northern extent of PoPs depends on how quickly
the high can be ushered out of the region. The severe potential for
tomorrow looks abysmal at best, with  <500 J/kg of MUCAPE, though a
few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out, especially across
southern Iowa.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

A complex, amplified upper air pattern will dictate the extended
forecast. Rain chances will loom for much of the period, including
through the weekend to start. Timing differences still remain for
Saturday on when precipitation will pause, but for now, it appears a
warm front will lift northward towards Minnesota through the day,
but there is enough uncertainty in remaining moisture to warrant
keep a ~30% chance of rain in the area for Halloween night. Lee
cyclogenesis will temporarily pull away moisture from the area
Sunday, but it will return with a large closed system to start next
week. Location of the warm sector is still uncertain as the
formation of the closed low involves the combination of a couple
component waves merging together. What can be said is the resultant
feature will become wound up in the central US and will result in an
extended period of rain chances, cloud cover, and cooler
temperatures for the first week of November. It`s possible that
highs next week don`t reach 70 degrees for the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A small patch of fog has developed in northern Iowa and will
result in a brief period of reduced visibility at KMCW. This
should lift in the next 2 hours or less. In southeast iowa
stratus from the frontal passage is just exiting the state,
with MVFR ceilings lingering at KOTM for another 2 hours.
Thereafter, VFR conditions are anticipated across all sites.
North wind this morning will shift through the period to out of
the east after 00z. High cloud cover increases overnight ahead
of approaching precipitation that will expand across the area on
Friday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Jimenez
AVIATION...Hagenhoff