959
FXUS63 KDMX 182045
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
245 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloudy conditions with a light mist/fog persists today into
  tonight.

- Mostly cloudy skies on Wednesday, with temperatures warming
  through Thursday.

- Rain chances in far southern Iowa Thursday night into Friday,
  although guidance continues to trend drier for Iowa.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 243 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

The main wave that brought rain and thunderstorms to the area last
night has all but departed the area this afternoon, leaving stratus
and some drizzle/mist in it`s wake. Some areas in southern Iowa have
managed to remain clear through the morning, but the persistent
stratus deck continues to leak southward and will eventually span
much of the area. High pressure is filling in behind the wave
tonight, keeping winds light and temperatures cool. Additional fog
development will be possible with the light winds and moist
conditions, but the stout cloud deck will work to negate radiational
cooling. For this reason, not expecting significant fog development,
barring any unexpected breaks in the cloud deck.

Surface high pressure continues to dominate the pattern on Wednesday
morning, but return flow on the back side of the high will flip
winds to more southerly during the day. This will bring warmer
temperatures up into the area, and begin to push out the stratus
from the southwest. Unfortunately, this will be a slow process,
keeping conditions cloudy for most of the area through the day
Wednesday. Skies will clear out some on Thursday morning, with
temperatures warming into the 50s to near 60.

Flow will steadily flip to more northerly on Thursday as a weak
boundary is pulled through the area by the northern stream trough
passing through Canada. This wave will be well displaced from Iowa,
but will still manage to pull cooler, drier air into the state
through the end of the week. This will have implications on the
precipitation forecast late in the week, as guidance continues to
trend drier for Thursday night into Friday. Due to the presence of
the northern stream wave and associated high pressure, the southern
stream wave and precipitation is struggling to lift up into the
state, keeping most of the rain chances south of the area. NBM
continues to lag behind this trend, still bringing at least low end
rain chances up to highway 80 corridor. This is likely overdone,
with the greatest likelihood for rainfall being along the
Iowa/Missouri border and south.

Another northern stream wave will eventually pass through the area
over the weekend, boosting temperatures into the 50s through the
weekend and into early next week. More rain chances could return by
Monday but it`s still too far out to get attached to any one
solution.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Ceiling and visibility restrictions remain the main features
for this period, as stratus and fog/mist impacts much of the
area today. IFR ceilings around 500 to 800 ft are common under
the stratus, with a few pockets of LIFR ceilings at 400 ft in
northern Iowa. Farther south on the edge of the stratus near
KDSM and KOTM, ceilings are teetering between MVFR and IFR at
800 to 1200 ft. Stratus will continue southward and persist
through tomorrow, keeping at least MVFR to IFR conditions at all
sites through this TAF period. Periods of LIFR may develop at
all sites through tomorrow morning, but have left out of TAFs at
this time.

A fog/mist is also producing some visibility reductions around
4 to 5 miles in northern Iowa, with isolated pockets of 2 mile
visibilities. Expectation is for these visibilities to improve
this afternoon, before more fog potential moves in Wednesday
morning. However, with the stratus overhead, fog location and
intensity is difficult to pin down at this lead time. Therefore,
have included 6SM BR in TAFs during periods where fog will be
most likely to develop tonight and will refine as confidence
increases.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dodson
AVIATION...Dodson