


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA
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921 FXUS63 KDMX 052349 AFDDMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 649 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...Updated for the 00z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, dry, and windy conditions resulting in elevated fire weather concerns will taper off this afternoon. - Spotty showers this afternoon in northwest Iowa, moving across the area and becoming more widespread on Monday. Rain will taper off southeast by Tuesday morning. - Cooler highs in the 60s and 70s this week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Winds remain breezy out of the southwest today ahead of the cool front that has reached northwest Iowa early this afternoon. Wind have generally gusted 25-35 mph so far today with a few isolated gusts near 40 mph. At the same time the surface boundary has reached northwest Iowa with spotty reflectivity returns on radar. Much of this is not reaching the ground with significant dry air to battle initially. Cloud cover has helped keep afternoon temperatures a few degrees cooler than Saturday and winds are marginally reduced as well, helping to reduce potential cropland fire concerns. Even so, caution should be used with fires or anything that may produce sparks the rest of today. As upper level support arrives later this afternoon and evening expect to increasing saturation thorugh the column and more widespread precipitation along the front. Instability is limited with <500 J/kg MLCAPE and best 0-6km shear lag behind the instability axis. This will help to limit severe potential, however with dry profiles initially any early convection may produce gusty winds. The front slowly sinks southeast overnight and through the day on Monday. CAMs today have come into much better agreement today with the timing and placement of precipitation passing across Iowa, becoming more widespread on Monday before exiting southeast on Tuesday morning. Northwest Iowa will miss out on much of the QPF as the boundary passes before saturating, but much of central to east/southeast Iowa will see 1+ inches of rain with a band of 2-3+ inches likely from southwest to central Iowa. This rain is falling across areas (most of Iowa) that have not seen much in the way of precipitation for several weeks, so despite amounts of 2-3+" possible this will fall over a prolonged period over very dry soils with very little chance for any hydrologic concerns. High pressure build across the area on Tuesday, pushing the boundary southeast of the area. Temperatures come down 20+ degrees the the frontal passage with highs in the 60s to start the week, warming back through the 70s by late week. A couple shortwave may move across the area mid to late week, however model continue to struggle with timing so confidence is lower at this time. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 644 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Line of showers and storms will impact all terminals at some point this period with the thunderstorm potential highest in the next 6 hours. Added in a TEMPO group to KDSM as thunderstorms arrive from the west. Small hail and gusty winds possible with storms, along with vsby reductions due to downpours. MVFR/IFR stratus fills in from behind along with northwest winds with guidance pointing to categorical ceiling restrictions enduring at KDSM and KALO post rain. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Hagenhoff AVIATION...Jimenez