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FNUS73 KDMX 041321
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Chichaqua Prescribed Fire - Hardtongue NE...Polk County Conservation
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
821 AM CDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on September 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Calm to light winds from the west will increase and become more
south southwesterly through the day, with gusts around 20 to 25
mph possible this afternoon. Otherwise, cool and dry conditions
are expected today with relative humidities bottoming out around
40 to 50 percent. May also see some Canadian wildfire smoke drift
through today. Later this evening, a few scattered showers and
isolated storms will be possible. This precipitation will develop
along another cold front, which will keep winds breezy and flip
them to the northwest overnight.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent). Areas of smoke.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 6 to 13 mph late
                    in the morning.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 15 mph increasing to 17 to 21
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (11500 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (90200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
GFDI................0.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27  20  22  21  23  30  34  37
Weather cov.....ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS
Weather type....SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
Temp............58  60  63  65  67  68  69  71
RH..............67  58  54  52  49  49  49  46
20 FT wind dir..W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   6   8   8   9   12  13  13
20 FT wind gust.8   12  13  14  16  18  21  22
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 3.1 4.1 4.7 5.4 5.6 5.5 5.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   9   12  13  15  17  18  21
GFDI............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Smoke Dispersal.12  23  39  52  71  82  81  90
Smoke Cat.......PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  GD  GD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    mostly clear (20-30 percent). Areas of smoke in
                    the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    late in the evening. Chance of rain showers
                    late in the evening.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........73 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 13 mph shifting to the
                    west 13 to 15 mph late in the evening. Gusts up
                    to 30 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms late in the evening.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 16 to 21 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 20 to 23 mph late in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (35400 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (8700 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
GFDI................0.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........50     43     62     41     15     10
Weather cov.....AREAS  AREAS  CHANCE AREAS
Weather type....SMOKE  SMOKE  RNSHWR SMOKE  NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............72     69     65     64     60     55
RH..............46     55     70     73     72     72
20 ft wind......SW 13  SW 13  SW 13  W 14   NW 14  NW 15
20 ft wind gust.23     22     25     25     24     26
Mix hgt (ft)....2300   600    600    600    600    600
Transport wind..SW 17  SW 17  SW 20  NW 20  NW 20  NW 23
GFDI............0      0      0      0      0      0
Smoke Dispersal.35     9      10     10     10     11
Smoke Cat.......POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 10 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 30
                    mph.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 17 to 24 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (9400 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (107000 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon increasing to excellent (69200
                    knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
GFDI................0.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........5         2         15        29
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............52        54        62        66
RH..............74        69        52        47
20 FT wind......NW 13G30  NW 14G22  NW 14G22  NW 14G21
Mix hgt (ft)....600       3000      5000      6300
Transport wind..NW 20     NW 23     NW 23     W 22
GFDI............0         0         0         0
Smoke Dispersal.10        53        96        114
Smoke Cat.......POOR      FAIR      GOOD      VYGD

$$
Forecaster...Dodson
Requested by...Douglas Todey
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2521311.0/DMX
.DELDT 09/04/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL douglas.todey@polkcountyiowa.gov