388
FXUS63 KDTX 110754
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
354 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated light showers are possible across the Thumb today,
otherwise dry weather prevails through the weekend into early next
week.

- Seasonable temperatures today with a warming trend into the early
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Compact stacked low pressure is clearly evident in WV and IR imagery
over Bruce Peninsula, trekking toward Lake Ontario where it will
stall and continue to fill in through the day. NVA and subsidence on
its back side are responsible for a punch of dry air over SE MI and
mostly clear skies early this morning. Additional moisture is
arriving from the north within steady post-frontal cold advection
and will offer variable coverage of stratus through the daylight
hours. Wind veering from NW to NNE ushers weak lake induced
instability into the Thumb which brings the potential for spotty
light showers at times. All in all, a typical October day with highs
in the lower to mid 60s.

Gradual height rises commence today and persist into Sunday offering
an increasingly stable column along with a modest warming trend.
Surface high pressure over the lower St. Lawrence Valley becomes the
dominant feature with southeast flow advecting in additional shallow
moisture to provide intervals of clouds but minimal chances for
precip. A few hi-res runs do hint at some possible lake effect
sprinkles downwind of western Lake Erie on Sunday but opted to keep
the going forecast dry for now. Mid-level ridging continues to
strengthen across the southern Plains Monday into early Tuesday,
building northeast into the Great Lakes to support continued benign
weather.

A low lifting from the Canadian Prairie into Hudson Bay sends a cold
front through the region on Tuesday. This is likely to be a dry
fropa as moisture transport vectors preceding the front are weak and
lift will be minimal as the low passes well to the north. The slight
chance PoP in the NBM is driven primarily by solutions that offer
stronger troughing emerging over Ontario, with highest
representation among Euro ensemble members. However, those solutions
that do produce measurable precip only advertise a few hundredths at
best. Dry and seasonable weather follows as high pressure fills in
behind the front. The next window for precip looks to hold off until
next weekend as the ridge shows signs of breaking down.

&&

.MARINE...

Weakening low pressure gradually slides into the eastern Great Lakes
today before being absorbed into the larger mid-Atlantic system late
this evening. This slow departure maintains scattered shower chances
for much of the day as well as chances to see a few waterspouts
given the cooler airmass. Winds slowly veer from northwesterly to
easterly over the course of the day though gusts hold below 25kts.
Weak ridging induced between Atlantic and northern Plains lows then
expands over the central Great Lakes Saturday night into Monday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1145 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

AVIATION...

Band of VFR cloud accompanying a cold frontal passage will clear the
area early this morning, with a post-frontal wind shift to
northwesterly areawide. This will leave a window of clear sky for
the overnight period, before ensuing deep layer cold air advection
supports an expanding coverage of lower stratus late tonight and
early Saturday. Forecast will highlight a period of MVFR or low VFR
during this time, with daytime mixing working to lift cloud bases
definitively into VFR Saturday afternoon. Clearing potential
improves mid afternoon into the evening as drier air arrives with
emerging northeast low level flow. There is model signal for fog or
very low stratus development late Saturday night.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected through the
forecast period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Moderate for ceilings at or below 5000 feet overnight tonight and
  again Saturday afternoon. Low Saturday morning.


&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......KDK
AVIATION.....MR


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