049
FXUS63 KDTX 120003
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
703 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light snow/rain showers are possible this evening and
  overnight with no accumulation.

- Lingering rain showers continue over The Thumb on Wednesday with
  renewed afternoon gustiness across the rest of Southeast Michigan.

- A drier and warmer trend builds through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

The Midwest warm front has temperatures steady or slowly rising
tonight but not quite warm enough to deactivate Lake Michigan.
Borderline VFR/MVFR clouds in WI get a boost while crossing the lake
to better enable coverage to expand across SE Mi during the night.
The current plan is to monitor observations for signs of patchy
drizzle within the "warm sector" and as more persistent MVFR ceiling
develops toward sunrise along and behind the cold front. This front
exits into Ontario and Ohio before noon leaving afternoon peak
heating to help build ceiling into lower VFR as NW wind increases to
gusts near 30 knots. Both the wind and clouds start a diminishing
trend late afternoon into Wednesday evening.

 DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less late tonight and Wednesday
  morning.

* Low for exceeding crosswind threshold Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

DISCUSSION...

A warm front lifts into the Great Lakes region this evening and
overnight offering potential for light precipitation generated
within the elevated portion of the frontal slope. This isentropic
ascent activates a quasi-saturated lower column environment,
sufficient for some rain/sprinkles, and perhaps even a few
additional melting flakes. However, ice nuclei will be sparse as
evidenced in forecast thermal/moisture profiles. The surface
boundary passes through between 03Z and 09Z (Wednesday) with an
uptick in gradient winds, holding south-southwesterly. Speeds of 15-
20 mph are possible into Wednesday morning, although the nocturnal
inversion should limit gustiness.

The core arctic airmass gets shoved into the maritime Canadian
provinces by Wednesday while a trailing cold front, tied to low
pressure over Ontario, works through Lower Michigan. Weak
precipitation response activated within the frontal zone given
ThetaE advection, and lake modification. Can`t rule out a few
morning flurries and/or sprinkles before zonal flow sets up beneath
an elongated jet streak, digging through the Upper Midwest and Ohio
Valley. Longwave ridging over western CONUS amplifies, nudging the
jet northward into southern Lower Wednesday afternoon. Latest data
suggests renewed gust response Wednesday afternoon as mixing depths
rise to around 3 kft, tapping into 35+ knot flow. A bit warmer with
highs breaking the 40F mark, but wind chills lend temperatures that
feel sub-freezing. Lingering precipitation chances (mainly liquid)
over portions of The Thumb before sundown.

Height rises build into the region on Thursday as upstream ridging
amplifies. This causes the jet to exit while surface high pressure
builds across Lake Superior. Warm advection picks up, as the warming
trend carries into the end of the week. Anticyclonic flow aloft
ensures dry weather with a weakening wind field. Highs return to
seasonal normals on Friday, becoming warmer than climatological
averages over the weekend. Double digit 850 mb temperatures in place
Saturday with a tightening surface pressure gradient resulting in
confluent southerly winds. The pronounced warm sector may support a
period of showers, and perhaps a few thunderstorms, as dynamic
ascent arrives with a high degree of CVA as a triple wave merger
unfolds over central CONUS.

MARINE...

Surface ridge axis has passes east of the area today opening the
door for increased southwesterly flow today with gusts to around 25
knots. Small Craft Advisories are currently in effect for all
nearshore waters for these winds. A low pressure system over Ontario
has a cold front draped southward through WI at the moment. A strong
low level jet in advance of the front will force a warm front up
through the region this evening as the low level jet then noses into
the area, up to 50 knots over Lake Erie and 40 knots up to Saginaw
Bay, before pushing off to the east tonight. Unfavorable
southwesterly flow and nocturnal timing make widespread gales
unlikely with this jet but a couple gusts to gales remain possible.
The cold front then passes through early Wednesday bringing another
period of increased winds out of the northwest. As previously
mentioned, the background wind field aloft remain on the low side
peaking around 35 to 40 knots and the thermal trough is also not
very cold cutting into instability and mixing depths. So continues
to be a marginal setup for northwesterly gales during the daytime
Wednesday so will hold off on any gale headlines. Nearshore zones,
however, will see an extended period of Small Craft Advisory
conditions as several episodes of elevated wind/wave action are
expected through Thursday. Quieter conditions then prevail to start
the weekend.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LEZ444.

     Low Water Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......DRK


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