065
FXUS63 KDTX 291042
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
642 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures and dry conditions over the next couple
days.

- Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

Ongoing low level dry air advection associated with high pressure
expanding into the area from the west will limit diurnal cu to a few
high based clouds today. Diurnal boundary layer growth combined with
the northern flow associated with the inbound sfc high will support
north winds of 8 to 12 knots this afternoon with a few gusts nearing
20 knots.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms today and tonight.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

DISCUSSION...

High pressure currently over Wisconsin will govern local conditions
over the next several days, ensuring a dry and seasonable period for
SE Michigan. Northerly flow maintains H8 temperatures in the low
teens atop lake temperatures of 20+ C, which will be enough to keep
lake moisture flux active over Lake Huron and generate pockets of
diurnal cumulus this afternoon. Outside of this, mostly sunny skies
are expected. Lingering cyclonic influence from the New England low
keeps an elevated wind field aloft that the boundary layer will tap
into this afternoon. Breezy conditions with gusts up to 25 mph are
possible. A very similar day is in store for Thursday as the surface
high makes little eastward progress, although less breezy as the
more relaxed high pressure gradient gains influence.

Next wave to impact the Great Lakes will be en route today and
Thursday as it rounds the crest of the 595 dam ridge over central
CONUS. This will accelerate eastern progress of the ridge while also
attempting to dislodge the thermal trough. The warm tongue will
gradually lose strength though as it encounters deep troughing over
eastern CONUS, meaning a less aggressive warm up than what we saw
earlier this month--into the upper 80s for Friday.

The wave then brings the next opportunity for showers and thunder to
SE Michigan Friday night. Model consistency then breaks down for the
weekend, differing in if the wave stays progressive or cuts off over
the Ohio Valley. Either way, SE Michigan looks to spend time under
the deformation axis to keep cloud cover and rain chances in the
forecast for at least part of the weekend. Only a handful of dry
members exist for Saturday in the 00z ensemble suite, although that
number increases Sunday. Ensemble members also largely favor
temperatures to hold aob normal (mid-80s) for the weekend before a
warm up is expected early next week.

MARINE...

Northerly flow persists today as we sit within the pressure gradient
between high pressure over the western Great Lakes and low pressure
stalled over New England. Wind speed of 15 to 20 kt will be common
with gusts to 25 kt possible at times across southern Lake Huron.
The long fetch keeps wave heights elevated and Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect for the Lake Huron nearshore waters. Dry
conditions persist today into Thursday with wind and waves gradually
subsiding on Thursday as the high pressure builds overhead. A chance
of scattered showers and storms then arrives late Friday and
Saturday ahead of the next cold front.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for MIZ049-055-063.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......TF


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