708
FXUS63 KDTX 270952
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
552 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and pleasant weather conditions will persist into Tuesday.

- Localized fog is possible this morning and again Monday morning.

- Rain chances increase during the latter half of next week with
cooler temperatures expected.

&&

.AVIATION...

Morning satellite imagery shows a couple of narrow corridors of low
stratus/fog moving southward. Short-lived LIFR reductions remain
possible at FNT and PTK prior to sunrise. High pressure extending
from southern Lake Michigan to northern Quebec then ensures VFR
conditions across the terminal airspace for the daylight hours
amidst light northerly winds (AOB 10 knots). Mainly clear skies
again tonight with weak gradient winds trending toward calm. Only
foregoing aviation forecast concern relates to the prevalence of fog
again late tonight into Monday morning.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms forecast through the TAF
period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 337 AM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

DISCUSSION...

A tranquil fall pattern continues for the next few days as high
pressure remains in control over SE Michigan. The origin of the
surface high however transitions away from Quebec and toward the
emerging high pressure center over the Upper Midwest today. This
will reinforce the northeasterly winds that we have seen for the
past couple of days to maintain moisture flux off of Lake Huron. A
slight increase in wind speed and upstream moisture content over
Ontario suggests slightly more aggressive moisture flux than
previous mornings. That said, synoptic scale moisture is still quite
minimal with the 27.00z KDTX sounding sampling PWAT of 0.38" (10th
percentile per SPC climatology). This has ultimately kept
fog/stratus localized to the Thumb/Saginaw Valley. Similar fog/low
stratus concerns will persist each morning until winds flip to the
south Tuesday with the departure of the high.

Otherwise, seasonable temperatures hold in the low 70s over the next
several days as the pattern remains at a standstill due to the
stalled Nor`Easter. No signs of any meaningful thickness advection
until Tuesday when flow flips southwest as the east coast system
fills in and absorbs into the mean flow. By Tuesday night, mid level
flow becomes zonal which opens the Great Lakes to a low amplitude
shortwave by early Wednesday morning. Majority of guidance brings
this Pacific wave and its accompanying upper level moisture across
the state well ahead of low level Gulf moisture. This keeps rain
chances low (<30%) for most of Wednesday in favor of just increasing
cloud cover and possibly some virga. There remains disagreement in
model guidance regarding timing of the gulf moisture surge, which
will dictate when rain chances start to ramp up. This looks to be
sometime Wednesday evening with rain chances then continuing through
Thursday. Return flow will eventually be cut off as a cold front is
dragged across northern CONUS by a northern stream low, which also
ushers in an even cooler airmass to start off October as highs will
only be in the mid-60s.

MARINE...

High pressure now situated over the Great Lakes will hold through
Tuesday. Some periodic wind gust potential around 20 knots will be
possible across southern Lake Huron this afternoon and evening, but
otherwise, wind gust potential to or below 15 knots is expected for
most locations. Wind direction will mainly hold from the north to
northeast with high pressure in place.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....KGK
DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......AM


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