823
FXUS63 KDTX 160931
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
531 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues today into tomorrow.

- Increasingly muggy conditions will support thunderstorm chances
  tomorrow and Wednesday.

- There is a Slight Chance for severe weather late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night along with a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall for Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.AVIATION...

Higher pressure to bring another round of VFR conditions under
sct-bkn upper-level cirrus. There will be some subtle low-level
convergence maximized across KPTK-FNT this afternoon and coupled with
steep low-level lapse rates, brings the potential to see sct-bkn cu
that hold aoa 5kft. Otherwise, winds remain light from the southeast
for most locations. A quick flip to east-southeast flow will be
possible for KMBS this evening once a weak lake breeze comes off the
Saginaw Bay.

For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms expected through this TAF
period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 407 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

DISCUSSION...

Relatively quiet weather to start the work week as a surface high
pressure maintains influence across Michigan resulting in another
dry day. Winds become more south to southeasterly today as the high
pressure eases further east and influence of upstream troughing
begins. A warmer airmass begins to creep into Michigan with 850mb
temperatures rising a couple degrees helping support daytime highs
this afternoon into the lower 80s for much of the area. Warmer
airmass and increasing dewpoints will also hold overnight lows
tonight holding in the low/mid 60s.

Tomorrow will be even warmer with deeper southwest flow taking hold
and drawing in an the airmass from the plains. Temperatures as 850mb
climb into the mid/upper teens supporting highs in the mid to upper
80s. Muggy conditions will also be felt as dewpoints climb at least
into the mid 60s. Tuesday will also see a shortwave and associated
surface low tracking across the northern Great Lakes/Ontario and
drawing a cold front into Michigan during the afternoon. Weak
forcing along the front will support chances for showers and
thunderstorms during the day as instability builds. However, the
lack of a strong low level jet will offer limited shear for organized
convection. DCAPEs approaching 1000 J/kg will at least bring
potential for isolated strong downburst winds if convection can gain
enough strength. The frontal boundary will stall out and bisect
lower Michigan tomorrow night. Precipitation chances look limited
for much of the night over southeast Michigan, but the presence of
the front and weak forcing warrants at least low end PoPs. Another
warm night is in store Tuesday night with overnight lows holding in
the mid/upper 60s for much of the area.

Wednesday will continue to be the focus for upcoming forecasts given
the potential threat of severe weather. The stalled out frontal
boundary will become the focus for an organizing low pressure system
as a potent wave moves into the region. A warm front will lift
through southeast Michigan during the early part of the day.
Dewpoints into the upper 60s within the warm sector will have ties to
the Gulf supported by solid southwest moisture transport. The
arrival of the front will also come with a chance of rain and
increased cloud cover early in the day, which adds the typical
uncertainty to the potential severe threat that may evolve ahead of
the inbound cold front later in the afternoon and evening. That being
said, the overall dynamics of this system will support the severe
weather potential. Models bringing in a 50-60 knots low level jet in
the evening as consensus is beginning to focus the main surface low
moving across central/northern lower Michigan in the 00-09Z time
frame with some differences in timing and location remaining in the
deterministic and ensemble space within said time frame. Any
convection early on in this time frame should be able to take
advantage of any instability that can hold into the evening. Shear
will be plentiful given the presence of the low level jet supporting
better organized updrafts. A Slight Risk for severe weather is in
place on Day 3. Heavy rainfall will also be possible as PWATS climb
to 1.75 inches or greater. A Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall
highlights this potential.

Thursday will see continued chances for showers and thunderstorms as
the main trough moves through the Great Lakes. Friday night into
Saturday morning will may see thunderstorm potential again as MCS
activity rounds a ridge into Michigan. The ridge then build over the
Great Lakes bringing hot and muggy conditions for the weekend.

MARINE...

Light wind organizes out of the southeast today as the center of
eastern Canadian high pressure drifts out over the Atlantic. A
surface ridge continues to extend westward into the Great Lakes
through the day which maintains dry and stable conditions. A warm
front then lifts into the Great Lakes on Tuesday which ushers in a
warmer and more unstable air mass on south wind reaching 10 to 20
kt. An unsettled pattern follows through the rest of the week as a
series of low pressure systems track through the region. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day with potential for strong
storms on Wednesday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....AM
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......TF


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