833
FXUS63 KDTX 141759
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
159 PM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming temperatures and dry weather into early next week.

- Showers and strong thunderstorms return for the mid week period.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR through the forecast as high pressure takes a stronger
hold over the region with the low pressure system over Ohio pulling
off to the east. A SCT/BKN lower VFR cumulus field will carry
through a few more hours over the three Detroit area sites before
skies clear out for the rest of the period. Winds will hold out of
the east to northeast to around 10 knots or less through this
evening before dropping off after sunset.

For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms expected through this TAF
period.

THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium for ceilings at or below 5,000 feet into the afternoon.
  Low this evening and tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM EDT Sat Jun 14 2025

DISCUSSION...

A mid-level wave now exiting Missouri will progress east into the
southern Ohio Valley this morning which will enhance southerly flow
north through the Michigan border, contesting with the broader
anticylonic flow from the broad Canadian high pressure over Ontario
and Quebec. This will enhance an area of low level convergence from
900mb to 750mb focused along and south of I-94 which will be the
focal point for continued rain showers through the morning hours,
further aided from weak to modest pva aloft. Shallow forcing within
a stable environment will hamper any thunderstorm chances. All
precipitation chances wane through the late morning hours as the
wave continues to progress east which will quickly dissolve low
level convergence while the Canadian high begins to subtly pivot
south into the Great Lakes. This will support dry conditions with
temperatures topping in the 70s. The slightly cooler temperatures
(outside of the vicinity of the lakeshore) will likely be found
closer to the MI/OH border given the later departure of cloud cover
as deep column moisture needs to be advected and scoured out.

High pressure will provide a dry day tomorrow where despite limited
thermal advection, temperatures peak into the upper 70s under modest
air mass modification. High pressure will wash out across the
continental northeast into the Atlantic on Monday which will allow
for some weaker moisture advection to expand across the Great Lakes,
but overall synoptic flow is too weak to allow for a meaningful
expansion of moisture. A well capped environment with weak gradient
flow will likely extend dry weather into Monday as temperatures
trends continue to increase, highs peaking in the low to mid 80s.

More active conditions will then return Tuesday and through the
midweek period, first as zonal flow ushers in a couple of shortwaves
which will bring in some better moisture and will act as a mechanism
for shower and storm potential. Otherwise, medium range models are
starting to converge on a wave that arrives across around Baja
California early next week which will induce lee cyclogensis over
the Rockies, producing a low pressure system that has potential to
impact the Great Lakes region through the middle of the week. This
signal is observed in both the GEFS and EPS ensemble systems, but any
specifics to low track/strength will be reserved for when the wave
arrives onshore early next week.

MARINE...

A frontal boundary remains stalled over the Ohio Valley while broad
high pressure over northern Ontario gradually shifts into Quebec
this weekend. This pattern sustains light northeast wind, generally
15 kt or less, across the central Great Lakes. Enhanced wind
funneling down the axis of Saginaw Bay will reach near 20 knots this
afternoon. Showers gradually depart the southern Great Lakes through
the day as the high pressure spreads southward - this brings dry
weather through Sunday. Generally weak flow persists into early next
week with warmer and more unstable conditions arriving on south wind
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......TF


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