044
FXUS63 KDVN 030850
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
250 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Falling temperatures today, with a very low chance (<20%) of
  light snow/flurries with cold front passage.

- Near record cold tonight, with sub zero lows and wind chills
  in the -10 to -25 degree range. Cold weather headlines may be
  needed for a portion of the area.

- Series of clippers this weekend and early next week to keep
  pattern active, with sporadic chances for precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 124 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Morning satellite imagery shows a deck of mid/high level clouds
streaming east over Iowa. Return flow evident by 10kt SSW winds
on surface observations, combined with the clouds have kept
temperatures up overnight mainly in the mid to upper 20s. A
cold front was also seen stretching from near Eau Claire, WI to
Storm Lake, IA. Light radar returns were evident ahead of the
front over WI and northern KS where deeper moisture was located
based on RAP 700-500mb layer RH fields.

The aforementioned cold front will make its way through the CWA
this morning, with calendar day highs occurring before Noon.
Forcing along this front is weaker than it was 24-hrs ago and
CAMs suggest risk for any accums would be further south and
east. As a result, have lowered PoPs under 20% for light
snow/flurries today with no accums. However, I did want to point
out that some forecast soundings (RAP+HRRR) were showing loss
of ice introduction for a brief period before 21z today owing
for a low potential of fzdz. However, no lift within the
saturated low levels on forecast soundings should preclude any
developing. If it does however, pavement temps on treated roads
would suggest this would only affect elevated surfaces.
Something for the day shift to monitor upstream trends today.

Attention then turns to the well advertised cold tonight. Large
1034mb surface high to drift over the Midwest tonight, with its
ridge axis centered over central IA northward towards Duluth, MN
at 12z Thu. Current upstream temperatures near this surface high
in Saskatchewan and Manitoba are already in the single digits
below zero! NBM probabilities of sub-zero lows have remained in
the 60-95% range and see no reason not to go on the lower end
of guidance for lows tonight. Some air temps below -10 degrees
will even be possible, especially closer to the ridge axis
along and west of Hwy 218/I-380. These readings will be at or
below record lows for December 4th and it is quite impressive
to see temperatures this cold this early in the season. See
climate section below for more details on this. To make matters
worse for those that are not big fans of the cold, northwest
winds will make it feel even colder with wind chills in the -10
to -25 degree range. The 00z LREF (100 member ensemble) only
shows 30-40% probabilities of -20 degree or lower wind chills
for a few hours Thursday morning west of a Dubuque to Pella
line. Will pass this information to the day shift for any
decision on cold weather headlines.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 124 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Thursday...very cold conditions expected as 1034mb surface high
slides east over the area. Despite plentiful sunshine and some
modest WAA aloft, temperatures will struggle to get out of the
single digits for much of the day. Negative feedback from the deeper
snowpack may keep highs in the single digits. While not the
earliest single digit highs in our area, you need to go back to
2005 in Cedar Rapids since we last had an early December single
digit high! The last time we had highs this cold last year was
on Feb 19th. Another cold night will be seen Thursday night as
well although not as cold as tonight. Surface ridge axis will
be just east of the CWA, with return flow and cloud cover
limiting full temp drop potential. Coldest lows below zero are
forecast in northwest IL, with wind chills in the -5 to -18
degree range.

Friday-Sunday...northwest flow to bring a series of clippers through
the Midwest keeping the pattern active. The first one looks to be
track through Friday night and should remain to our north, with the
next one right on its heels moving through the central Plains
Saturday night-Sunday. This wave will be the one to watch for any
measurable precip/snow for our area, albeit light amounts (NBM
ensemble only has 22% of members with 24-hr QPF ending 12z Sun
with amounts greater than 0.1" at MLI). Thermal profiles still
suggest all snow with this system, but still looks like a weak
system. Temperatures to remain below normal, but warmer than
previous days with highs in the upper 20s/low 30s and lows in
the teens.

Early Next Week...another cold airmass to keep below normal
temps through Monday across the region, with dry conditions as
another surface high moves overhead. Another fast moving clipper
will track over the Canadian Rockies and drop southeast into
the Midwest Monday night bringing more chances of precipitation.
Behind this system, models are hinting at a warm-up taking
place with above freezing highs possible Tuesday and Wednesday.
Continue to monitor our forecast for any updates and trends with
these passing systems.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

VFR conditions to start the period, with SSW winds ahead of an
approaching cold front. Fropa to occur after 12z this morning,
with winds veering to the NW and gusting occasionally over
20kts. Some flurries may occur along and just behind the front
today, with MVFR cigs moving in and lasting until mid-late
afternoon before returning to VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 124 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Putting the incoming cold tonight and Wednesday night into
perspective. Sub zero lows are not that common this early in the
season and has only happened 4 times or less since 2000 at CID
and DBQ. It has not happened for 34 years at MLI. If CID were
to hit -10 degrees, it would be the earliest negative double
digit lows since 1891.

Earliest sub-zero temps since:
CID: 11/12/2019
DBQ: 11/12/2019
MLI: 12/4/1991

Record Cold High Temperatures:

December 4:
KMLI: 14 in 1991

Record Low Temperatures:

December 4:
KBRL: -3 in 1991
KCID: -5 in 2005
KDBQ: -6 in 1991
KMLI: -2 in 1991

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gross
LONG TERM...Gross
AVIATION...Gross
CLIMATE...Gross