253
FXUS63 KDVN 040540
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1140 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer than normal temperatures for the work week before a
  significant cool down late this weekend and early next week.

- Two rain chances late this week; one Thursday night and the
  other Saturday/Saturday night. Rainfall amounts look to be
  under 0.1 inch Thursday night and only marginally better on
  Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Breezy conditions will persist through the afternoon hours. Winds
will quickly diminish with sunset as the lower atmosphere decouples.

Late tonight into Tuesday morning a moisture starved system will
move through the area with only an increase in clouds marking its
passage.

As skies clear from west to east on Tuesday, strong southerly flow
will boost temperatures in the afternoon. Most areas will be in the
60s but there is a 30% probability of temperatures getting to 70
degrees south of a Keosauqua, IA to Macomb, IL line.

Given the warm and windy conditions Tuesday in combination with the
drought conditions, a conditional elevated fire risk exists from
late Tuesday morning through the afternoon hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 131 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

Tuesday night through Thursday
Assessment...very high (>90%) confidence of temperatures at or
above normal.

Canadian high pressure will keep the area dry through the middle of
the week. A thermal ridge aloft will help keep temperatures at or
above normal. Breezy conditions should be seen on Wednesday as high
pressure builds in behind the departing Tuesday system. Attention
then turns to the next system.

Thursday night/Friday
Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on another system. Low (<25%)
confidence on rainfall amounts.

The next storm system moves through Thursday night and exits the
area Friday morning. The system has not much moisture associated
with it and the relatively `better` forcing is associated with the
cold front. The model consensus has 40-60% chances for rain Thursday
night. For some areas that may be appropriate. For other areas a 20-
30% rain chance may be more realistic.

Trends on forecasted QPF have, unfortunately, been downward.
Rainfall now looks to be 0.05 or less for much of the area.

On Friday any lingering rain east of the Mississippi should exit the
area by mid-morning followed by clearing skies. Temperatures should
continue to average above normal.

Friday night
Assessment...high (>80%) confidence on dry conditions

The fast near zonal flow aloft will bring a quick moving high
pressure through the area resulting in dry conditions. Attention
then turns to the weekend system.

Saturday/Saturday night
Assessment...medium to high (60-80%) confidence on another system.
Low (<25%) confidence on precipitation amounts.

The next storm system arrives during the day Saturday and will be
exiting after midnight Saturday night.

There are still questions regarding the evolution of the system. The
model consensus has 20-40% chances for rain with the relatively
better chances north of highway 30. The best chances for
precipitation are along the IA/MN border into Wisconsin.

Based on thermal profiles of the atmosphere, rain will be the
primary precipitation type for much of the day. The question is what
happens late Saturday afternoon and into the evening. For much of
the area, precipitation type will continue to be rain. However, some
flakes of snow may be seen with the rain for areas north of highway
30. The scenario for late Saturday afternoon and evening is based on
the premise that the cold air arrives in time to create a mix.
However, if the precipitation outruns the cold air (which does occur
often), then precipitation type may end up being all rain.

This far out it is very difficult to assign probabilities of which
scenario is correct. The deterministic GFS is an outlier from the
other runs in that it is much colder than the other solutions. Thus
the deterministic GFS and the mean of the GEFS solutions generate
some snow for the area. Even if the GFS/GEFS are correct (which is
an estimated 20% probability), the very warm ground will cause any
snow to melt on contact given the expected low snowfall rates.

Sunday into Monday
Assessment...very high (>90%) confidence on much colder
temperatures.

As the Saturday system exits the area, the fast zonal flow across
the CONUS will briefly amplify and allow a surge of Canadian/polar
air into the Midwest and points east. This surge of cold air will
result in below normal temperatures across the area with daytime
highs in the 40s and lows generally in the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1130 PM CST Mon Nov 3 2025

High pressure is sitting over the area early this morning with
light and variable winds across eastern Iowa and northwest
Illinois. As high pressure exit to the east, winds will turn to
the southeast up to 10 knots with winds turning to the south by
18 UTC and increasing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20
knots. VFR conditions are forecast through the period as mid and
high clouds drift across the area this morning associated with a
weak storm system moving across the region.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Cousins