515
FXUS63 KDVN 120655
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
155 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy and mild conditions today will bring an enhanced risk
  for fires spreading out of control, primarily in eastern Iowa
  in unharvested fields.

- While rain chances are found in the early week periods,
  rainfall appears spotty and light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Mostly clear skies are gradually giving way to high cloud cover from
west to east early today, as temperatures have cooled to the mid to
upper 40s over northern Illinois, and the lower to mid 50s over the
rest of the CWA. Southeast winds have already increased to the 10-15
mph range in many areas, signaling that this will indeed be a
breezy day as advertised while low pressure deepens along the
Canadian border this morning.

Winds will be the main change in the weather today, as
temperatures top out in the mid 70s north to upper 70s central
and south. As temperatures rise today, moisture will slowly
increase as the surface, with dewpoint values reaching the 50s
in most locations this afternoon. That will keep RH values in
the 40-50% range today, and with that, fire danger continues to
be mainly highlighted in fields. Our calculated Ag GFDI values
reach the lower end of the "very high" range in our western CWA
during the afternoon, indicating an Enhanced Risk for field
fires spreading out of control as winds increase to sustained
12-18mph, gusting to 25-30 mph out of the southeast. The high
cloud cover may be opaque at times today, but many mostly sunny
hours are forecast in this warm breezy day.

Tonight and into early Monday, an approaching cold front will bring
a low chance (20-35%) for rain showers.  Any qpf appears very low,
probably under 0.05" tonight. Much like what is happening early this
morning in Nebraska, radar may show a decent area of rain showers,
but the dry layer under the cloud base should limit the surface
impacts. (Nebraska observations are mainly showing dry reports
under the shower activity i.e. mainly virga).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 153 AM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Monday will once again warm, but with much lighter wind flow with
the front near the area.  The 00z NBM came in with highs in the 80s,
but looking at cloud cover it seems we will be dealing with partly
to mostly cloudy skies through the day. A look a the model spread
shows the mean much closer centered near the 25% NBM, or in the mid
70s.  I feel that`s enough support to undercut the NBM a few
degrees, but it`ll still be a warm day with dew point values near
60 through the day.

Early monday evening, a cold front will will makes it way farther
south through the area, with a dry low level air spreading in, and
gradually strengthening CAA from the north to northeast into
Tuesday. Models are less supportive of saturation north of this
front Monday and Tuesday than were indicated in past runs, but
we`re continuing with low pops of 15-30% through Tuesday night,
mainly in the western counties. Any rainfall would be very
light.

This boundary remains in play through Thursday, with cloud cover
north of the front resulting in cool highs Tuesday and
Wednesday. By Thursday a deep upper trof is expected to spread
into the western Plains, with strengthening southerly flow and
another warm up for Thursday-Friday. Models are still showing
that this deep trof may bring a more widespread rainfall chance
into the weekend, followed by cooler air again into early next
week. At time, there remains low confidence on this potential
storm system`s impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Oct 11 2025

A VFR TAF cycle is expected, with increasing southeast winds
through the period, peaking in eastern Iowa this afternoon, in
the 15 to 26kt range. Otherwise, dry conditions are anticipated,
with no visibility or ceiling restrictions as dry air is in
place in eastern Iowa and Illinois. Any overnight fog will
remain southwest of Burlington this morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin