791
FXUS63 KDVN 281854
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
154 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to slightly below normal temperatures are expected to return
  Friday and continue through the remainder of the period.

- A significant push of cool air and wind is growing in
  confidence towards the end of the week ahead.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A backdoor cold front is making slow progress southwest through the
area this afternoon. As of early afternoon, it is positioned from
Marshalltown IA, to near Muscatine, to near Peoria IL. For now,
there is a narrow line of cumulus along this front, and some weak
moisture convergence, represented by low 60s dew points. An isolated
shower is possible along this front this afternoon, but lacking much
forcing beyond the focusing mechanism, pops appear below 20 percent
today near that boundary, and dry elsewhere.

Tonight, this front will separate a comfortable night in the upper
50s with light winds, from those just east of the front, where lows
in the low 50s are forecast, largely due to the shallow moisture
east of the front, allowing dew formation to drop temperatures
lower.  In the end, a pleasant, "windows open" night in either case.

Friday, this front will generally remain in place, similarly to
today, with a typical build up of diurnal cumulus expected. An
isolated shower is possible, but with extremely low pops in the
afternoon, mainly northwest of our CWA.  The models that do suggest
rainfall more widespread along the front, hold dew points up in the
mid to upper 60s, and that`s just too moist compared to reality.
Highs Friday, range from the mid 70s northeast to lower 80s
southwest.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 153 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Pleasant temperatures are expected to continue through early next
week, with mainly dry weather.  The focus for rainfall remains west
of our area, until a strong cold front arrives towards mid week.
This front would then transition to upper Midwest back into a below
pattern for Wednesday and beyond into week 2.

The weather ahead of this system Wednesday will remain
consistently pleasant, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s,
and lows in the lower to upper 50s.

The system Wednesday does have some indications of strong meridional
flow from northern Canada into the Midwest, i.e., a potent cool high
pressure available. Some runs of the GFS and EC both indicate a
seasonally strong low pressure over the upper Great Lakes. If this
combination does occur, our first unpleasantly cold, cloudy, windy
day of the Fall season is in store. This would potentially bring
highs in the 50s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s for
Thursday!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

A weak front will slowly sink southwest the rest of this
afternoon, with a narrow band of cumulus, and a few isolated
showers ((<20% coverage) from central Iowa to southeast Iowa.
This is mainly going to be near BRL the rest of this afternoon,
and could result in a broken coverage sky, around 5000 ft this
afternoon. Otherwise, a VFR/mostly clear period is expected
with light and variable winds through Friday morning.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...Ervin