933
FXUS63 KDVN 100105
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
705 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered flurries this evening within a much colder than
  normal pattern continuing through Monday.

- A warming trend will push temperatures above normal the second
  half of the week, which may be accompanied by windy periods,
  including a potential deep weather system next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

The depth of moisture is a bit more limited based on our evening
upper air sounding, as well as radar trends. While there have
been a few isolated snow showers that are quickly moving from
near Mt Vernon IA through Louisa county, to west central
Illinois, the remainder of the area has seen cloudy skies or
only flurries. Looking upstream, this is also the main
condition seen through Iowa/MN/western WI as the vorticity
maxima drops south. There is clearing behind that wave, as
expected. Later tonight, that should aid in dropping
temperatures to the lower to mid 20s as currently forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

A chilly day by early November standards with lower 30s
temperatures which are a bit more than 20 degrees below normal.
The air mass supporting this is characterized by 850 mb
temperatures of -13C as observed on our 18Z sounding, and
that`s near record for this time of year. The thermal trough
will actually be dragged further over the area tonight by a
strong short wave over western Wisconsin embedded in the broader
long wave trough. That short wave in tandem with the cold
profiles will support flurries with high confidence given the
stratocumulus layer to be a couple thousand feet thick and
within the dendritic growth zone (DGZ). Upstream trends on
radar have shown an uptick in echoes the past couple hours and
would expect that to continue as the vort max moves from
Wisconsin into northern Illinois. This path would especially
favor far eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois for snow shower
coverage. With northerly winds gusting to 25 to 30 mph, the
potential is there to have that temporary snow globe in any
location that experiences snow showers. Because any individual
snow shower will be propagating quickly, any quick dusting
should be just that, and likely not on most roads (pavement
temps running upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon). Snow showers
should end from north to south mid evening into early
overnight.

The north winds combined with temperatures gradually falling
through the 20s will result in wind chills dropping into the
mid teens this evening and to the single digits by early Monday
morning. That`s noteworthy for early November -- bundle up!

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Monday will see more sun with mid-level height rises building
in and helping to somewhat offset stratocumulus development.
Northwest winds at the surface will still keep temperatures
chilly, being only a few degrees above today`s.

The turnaround in temperatures will be quite pronounced with a
fast-paced pattern in the wake of the long wave trough`s
departure. Warm air advection aloft will spread over the area
already late Monday night into Tuesday, though at this time
saturation depths for any precipitation look to be marginal in
our area. Surface pressure falls and 850-925 mb flow of 40-50
kt could support some wind gusts over 30 mph Tuesday morning and
early afternoon. The temperature climb will then be on through
the 50s during midweek.

Long range models and their ensembles over the last 48 hours
have trended toward a deep system in the middle of the country
next weekend. Such a system this time of year makes us
immediately think of winds, so certainly could be a gusty
period somewhere in that Friday-Sunday period. Also with that
comes strong advection, so there is an increasing signal for
very mild conditions Friday-Saturday. In fact, today`s NBM has
half of its membership showing values over 70F on Saturday,
which is a pretty marked signal for 6-7 days out. Finally, such
a signal of a deep system to our west (at this time) during the
transition season makes us also think thunder chances, and just
the potential overall for anomalous weather. Not surprisingly,
a huge spread in location on that low among the ensemble
members, so just something to watch during this week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 515 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Cold air at the surface and aloft will bring gusty northwest
winds and occasional flurries through the early morning hours
Monday. It appears upstream moisture is not as deep as earlier
forecast, thus, snow showers should be very limited and flurries
are the preferred mode tonight. Thus, I have gone with generally
VFR conditions overnight, as there have been no visibility
reports under 6 miles upstream in MN/WI in the past few hours.
CIGs are expected to remain in the 4-6K through the early
morning hours, followed by dry conditions and scattering our of
cloud cover around 8-12Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Friedlein
LONG TERM...Friedlein
AVIATION...Ervin