Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL

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FXUS63 KDVN 020847

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
247 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

Issued at 246 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

It`s quiet again this morning, but nowhere near as cold as from 24
hrs ago thanks to SW winds and attendant warm advection ahead of
an arctic front. At 2 AM the arctic front extends from roughly
near Duluth MN to Aberdeen SD. The front is hauling with 3 hr post
frontal pressure rises of near 8 mb over portions of ND.
This front will sweep through today and send us back down in the
deep freeze tonight and Friday before a notable warm-up ensues
this weekend.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

Key Message:
- Turning much colder by this afternoon and tonight, with hazardous
  wind chills tonight into Friday morning north of I-80.


An arctic front will sweep across the area late this morning and
afternoon. Ahead of the front with a notable warmer start (24 hr
temp change 10-20 degrees over yesterday AM) as a launch pad, and
abundant sunshine this morning and SW winds we should see a boost in
temps well into the 30s to lower 40s in the light to no snow covered
areas along/s of I-80, with 20s in the deeper snow cover north.

After the front passes late this morning and afternoon, temps will
then begin a downward slide with the onset of strong cold advection,
eventually bottoming out around -10 to -15 far northwest to single
digits above zero far south by Friday AM. These temps along with
brisk NW winds will create bitter cold to hazardous wind chills
dropping into the range of around 10 below far south to around 25
below north. The coldest wind chills of 20 below or colder are
likely along and especially north of I-80, where we`ve collaborated
a Wind Chill Advisory for tonight into Friday AM.

Expecting a transitory band of lower clouds to accompany the frontal
passage. Can`t rule out a few flurries in the strong CAA, but low
confidence due to the shallow nature of moisture in soundings and
the signal for strong notable drying/subsidence sweeping in quickly
thus have left out any mention.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 246 AM CST Thu Feb 2 2023

Key Messages:
- Warming trend this weekend, with minimal precipitation chances
- No real signs of much cold air next week, thus generally above
  normal but potentially a bit active.


Arctic air hangs around Friday with much below normal temperatures.
The high will shift east Friday night and ensuing southerly winds
and attendant warm advection will lead to a marked warming trend
Saturday into the 30s and 40s. Winds will turn westerly Sunday, but
deeper mixing and a warmer profile aided by downslope from Plains
will continue to support highs well into the 30s and 40s, and
wouldn`t rule out some 50s in the south. Winds will be gusty both
weekend days, as typical with any notable warming this time of year.
Can`t also totally rule out some trace light wintry mix Saturday
night and very early Sunday on the nose of the 925 hPa thermal
ridge, but too far out to mention at this time.

Monday through Wednesday

Seeing an increased signal for a quick bout of precipitation late
Monday and Monday night, with a frontal boundary. Thermal parameters
would support predominantly rain with this and amounts would be
fairly light due to the progressive nature. Beyond, there`s quite
the disagreement with the ensemble and deterministic guidance on
another system potentially mid-week. Some signal exists for a
potentially stronger system, but beyond that very low confidence on


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1019 PM CST Wed Feb 1 2023

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the remainder of
the period. A cold front will move from across eastern Iowa TAF
sites from north to south on Thursday afternoon. Models are
showing some clouds between 6 to 10 kft with the front. However
the frontal passage will be dry. Winds will shift from the west
ahead of the front to the northwest behind it. Wind speeds will
increase to 10 to 15 knots behind the front with gusts up to 25
knots into Thursday night.


IA...Wind Chill Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
     for Benton-Buchanan-Cedar-Delaware-Dubuque-Iowa-Johnson-

     Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
     for Clinton-Jackson-Muscatine-Scott.

IL...Wind Chill Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM CST Friday
     for Carroll-Jo Daviess-Rock Island-Stephenson-Whiteside.



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