543
FNUS21 KWNS 171653
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1052 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Valid 171700Z - 181200Z

...Southern/Central High Plains...
A mid-level jet at the base of an upper trough will progress into
the central and southern Plains today while a lee trough/cyclone
slowly deepens across KS/NE. The resultant downslope drying (15-20%
by afternoon)and enhancement of westerly winds (up to 20 mph) in the
lee of the Rockies will support elevated fire weather concerns amid
dry fuels across portions of southeast CO/western KS and far
east-central NM/TX Panhandle and far western OK this afternoon. Only
minor adjustments were needed to Elevated highlights based on latest
observational trends and short term model guidance consensus.

...Mid-Atlantic...
An anomalously dry air mass under cool, deep-layer northwesterly
flow remains over the Mid-Atlantic and Piedmont regions,  supporting
current relative humidity in the 15-25% range. Sustained wind speeds
will largely stay at or below 10 mph through the afternoon with
occasional gusts around 20 mph across the Piedmont region. Localized
enhancement of winds along the Blue Ridge Mountains is expected
where sustained winds of 15 mph and higher gusts could occur, but
cooler temperatures in the 50s and limited spatial extent of higher
downslope winds should mitigate a more widespread fire weather
concern for the area today.

..Williams.. 11/17/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025/

...Synopsis...
Fire weather concerns are expected for portions of the southern and
central High Plains this afternoon. More localized concerns are
possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic where dry conditions will
persist after breezy/dry conditions yesterday.

...Southern/Central High Plains...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave traversing
the central Rockies as of 06 UTC. Ahead of this feature, surface
pressure falls are noted as a lee cyclone slowly intensifies. This
surface low is expected to shift eastward through the afternoon,
resulting in strengthening westerly downslope flow off the
central/southern Rockies. Ensemble consensus suggests sustained
winds of 15-20 mph (gusting to 25-30 mph) will be common for
portions of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle as well as across
south-central CO in proximity to terrain features. Downslope
warming/drying coupled with ample daytime heating will likely result
in RH minimums in the teens. While ERCs across much of the region
are only modestly high (around the 80th percentile), limited
rainfall in the past two weeks has likely allowed for adequate
drying of finer fuels to warrant Elevated risk highlights.

...Mid-Atlantic...
An unseasonably dry air mass is currently in place across the
Mid-Atlantic region with dewpoints in the upper teens to low 20s
(which are near the 10th percentile for mid-November). With
similarly dry air upstream, RH values will likely fall into the
15-25% range again today. However, unlike yesterday wind speeds will
be more benign as surface high pressure builds into the region. Most
guidance suggests wind speeds will remain near 10 mph, but
occasional gusts into the 15-20 mph range appear possible given
lingering strong flow aloft.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$