568
FNUS21 KWNS 031633
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025

Valid 031700Z - 041200Z

No changes to the ongoing forecast. See the previous discussion for
additional information.

..Wendt.. 10/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025/

...Synopsis...
A strong upper low is forecast to transit from the West Coast into
the Great Basin and Intermountain West today. Accompanying the
trough, strong south/southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the
central and northern High Plains deepening a lee low and surface
trough over eastern MT and the western Dakotas. This will support
strong west/southwesterly downslope winds across portions of WY, the
Dakotas and southern MT through this afternoon. Peak winds of 15-25
mph are likely. Accompanying the dry downslope winds, record warm
temperatures and deep mixing will favor low afternoon humidity
around 15-20%. The warm temperatures, low humidity and dry surface
conditions will overlap with areas of dry fuels with ERCs above the
90th percentile. This will likely support several hours of Elevated
fire-weather conditions, along with some locally critical conditions
possible.

...Southern Plains...
Farther south, broad southerly flow is likely along the lee trough
over parts of eastern CO, western KS and the OK/TX Panhandles as the
surface low strengthens. While fuels here are not as receptive, some
drying and periods of moderately low RH will overlap with areas of
gusty winds around 15-20 mph. This could support some localized
fire-weather concerns as fuels continue to dry.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$