927
ACUS01 KWNS 081957
SWODY1
SPC AC 081956

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Sat Nov 08 2025

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated risk for severe thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon
and evening across parts of northern Georgia and the Carolinas.
Localized severe storms may also develop tonight across parts of the
lower Ohio Valley.

...20z Update...
Only minor adjustments were made to account for latest convective
trends. Recent observations show a gradual uptick in initially weak
convection across northern GA within a zone of modest low-level
convergence on the western fringe of diffuse frontal zone. Latest
ACARS soundings out of Atlanta, GA sampled strong mid and
upper-level flow supporting elongated hodographs as well as an
uncapped thermodynamic profile. Although mid-level lapse rates
remain modest, buoyancy appears adequate for robust convection,
which should organize into multicell clusters and perhaps a
supercell or two later this afternoon/evening. Uncertainty remains
high in overall storm coverage and mode given weak forcing for
ascent and mean flow oriented along the axis of convective
development (which should favor mixed storm modes). However, some
potential for large to perhaps very large hail is noted, but will be
conditional on the development of discrete supercells. See the
previous discussion and forthcoming MCD #2200 for additional
details.

..Moore.. 11/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Nov 08 2025/

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level vorticity maximum over
SD this morning, and this feature will move to western OH by early
Sunday morning.  A large-scale trough with an associated belt of
strong cyclonic mid-level flow will envelope the area east of the
Rockies.  In the low levels, a cold front extends from the
Mid-Atlantic states southwestward into the southern Appalachians and
becoming more diffuse with south extent.  As a cyclone develops
eastward from MO this afternoon to the upper OH Valley late tonight,
the diffuse portion of the front will advance northward as a warm
frontal zone across the Carolinas.

...Northern GA and the Carolinas...
Previous forecast thinking of weak surface reflection appears
plausible near/immediately east of the southern Appalachians
tonight.  The proximity to a moisture-rich airmass (surface
dewpoints 65-70 deg F) over southern-central GA and southern SC
lends some concern for stronger thunderstorm development late today
through this evening.  Although forcing for ascent will be weak,
persistent warm-air advection will seemingly be the primary
mechanism for isolated to widely scattered storm chances.  Mid-level
lapse rates will likely remain tempered and overall buoyancy being
weak, but forecast hodographs are quite favorable for storm
organization (i.e., supercell wind profile).  Will maintain a
level-1 (Marginal) categorical risk for all hazards this outlook
update.

...OH Valley...
The aforementioned mid-level impulse and associated DCVA will
overspread scant low-level moisture across the OH Valley.  Intense
forcing for ascent and cold-air advection in the mid levels will
support a linear cluster of weak, primarily elevated convection.
However, a few strong to locally severe gusts may accompany this
activity as it tracks eastward in tandem with the
eastward-developing cyclone overnight.

$$