332
ACUS01 KWNS 171619
SWODY1
SPC AC 171618

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1118 AM CDT Tue Jun 17 2025

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms producing numerous to widespread damaging
winds, scattered large hail (isolated 2+ inches), and a few
tornadoes are expected this afternoon and evening across parts of
the central/southern Plains. The greatest threat for destructive
gusts up to 70-100 mph is forecast across portions of southern
Kansas and northern Oklahoma.

...KS/OK...
Overnight and morning thunderstorm activity has significantly
changed the overall forecast for severe storms across the central
Plains for today.  A severe MCS overspread parts of southeast KS and
northeast OK a few hours ago, pushing an outflow boundary southward
into central OK.  Strong heating is occurring to the north of this
boundary, where rapid destabilization is expected this afternoon
across northern OK/southern KS.  A consensus of 12z model guidance
shows this to be the corridor of rapid and intense thunderstorm
development.  Forecast soundings show substantial low-level shear,
steep lapse rates, and sufficient winds aloft for supercells capable
of very large hail and a few tornadoes.  Relatively warm
temperatures in the 850-700mb layer are a negative factor for a
greater tornado concern.  Through the evening, congealing outflows
will likely result in a larger MCS posing a risk of widespread
damaging wind gusts into northeast OK and perhaps parts of northwest
AR/southwest MO.

...Eastern CO/Southeast WY...
Overnight storms also impacted the forecast for this region today.
Easterly low-level winds (enhanced by outflow) have transported
moisture westward into the foothills, where rapid thunderstorm
development is expected by early afternoon.  Steep mid-level lapse
rates and seasonably cool mid-level temperatures, coupled with
sufficiently strong westerly flow aloft, will promote a risk of very
large hail in the strongest storms.  A tornado or two is also
possible.  It is unclear how far east this activity can make it into
the adjacent Plains, where persistent low-clouds and more stable
conditions will likely prevail.  Refer to MCD #1330 for further
details.

..Hart/Wendt.. 06/17/2025

$$