437
ACUS01 KWNS 071941
SWODY1
SPC AC 071940

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0240 PM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe wind gusts
will be possible this afternoon and evening across parts of central
New Mexico.

...20z Update...
No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See discussion
below for more information.

..Thornton.. 10/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 07 2025/

...NM...
A broad upper trough is present today over much of the CONUS, with
the subtropical jet extending across northern Mexico into the
southern Plains.  Model guidance and water vapor loop suggest a weak
shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed max over AZ.  This
feature will provide weak-but-sufficient lift for scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon over the higher terrain of
central NM.  Forecast soundings suggest steep low/mid-level lapse
rates and pockets of MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg.  This will support a
risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours from the strongest
cells.

...Elsewhere...
Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms will be possible through the
period across much of the US to the east of the MS River.
Widespread cloudiness, weak lapse rates, and weak forcing mechanisms
should limit the risk of severe storms.

$$