762
ACUS01 KWNS 290047
SWODY1
SPC AC 290046

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of a marginal severe threat will be possible
early this evening across parts of eastern Colorado and from
north-central Texas into northern Louisiana.

...Eastern Colorado...
At mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a ridge over the
central Rockies with a large plume of moisture extending from the
Desert Southwest into the central High Plains. At the surface, high
pressure, associated with a large post-frontal airmass, is located
over much of the central and eastern U.S. Along the western edge of
the airmass, an upslope flow regime is present over the central High
Plains. Relatively isolated thunderstorms are ongoing in eastern
Colorado near an axis of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in
the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. In addition, regional WSR-88D VWPs near
the instability axis have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots. This suggest
the environment could support a marginal severe threat early this
evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts would be the primary
threats.

...North-central/Northeast Texas/Northern Louisiana...
Northwesterly mid-level flow is evident on water vapor imagery from
the Great Plains into the Southeast. A mid-level shortwave trough
appears to be moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing just ahead of the shortwave over northern
Louisiana, extending westward along a front into northeast and
north-central Texas. To the south of the front, surface dewpoints in
the 70s F are contributing to moderate instability, with the RAP
analyzing MLCAPE in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range. Near the front, the
00Z soundings at Fort Worth and Shreveport have 0-6 km shear around
30 knots with steep low-level lapse rates. This could be enough for
isolated severe gusts early this evening. Hail will also be
possible.

..Broyles.. 08/29/2025

$$