409
ACUS01 KWNS 031619
SWODY1
SPC AC 031617

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1017 AM CST Mon Nov 03 2025

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe storms are not expected today.

...Northeast States...
Recent satellite imagery shows shortwave trough over the
Mid-Atlantic, with another lower-amplitude shortwave trough over
Lower MI. Both of these waves are forecast to move eastward today,
with the Mid-Atlantic wave moving offshore and the Lower MI wave
progressing quickly across the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast.
Showers are anticipated along and ahead of the frontal band
associated with the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast shortwave, which is
expected to move quickly eastward across the region throughout the
day. Convection along and ahead of this frontal band will likely
remain too shallow for lightning production. However, mid-level
temperatures will continue to cool in the wake of the initial
frontal band, with moderate large-scale forcing for ascent
persisting as well. This combination should result in deeper
convective cores with a more cellular structure. Given the strong
low- to mid-level flow in place, a few stronger convectively
enhanced wind gusts are possible, particularly around 00-04Z from
the Mohawk Valley into the western Adirondacks.

..Mosier/Thornton.. 11/03/2025

$$