498
ACUS01 KWNS 160040
SWODY1
SPC AC 160038

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION AND THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds and large hail
remain possible this evening across the Mid-Missouri Valley, and
also from eastern Montana to the western/central Dakotas. A few
tornadoes could occur in eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, with
isolated significant severe hail and wind possible across parts of
the northern Plains.

...01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined mid-level
vort over north-central KS lifting northeast toward the Mid-MO
Valley. Two clusters of severe thunderstorms have evolved ahead of
this feature: 1) northeast Nebraska, 2) southeast Nebraska into
northeast Kansas. The northeast NE cluster is comprised of several
supercells that have generated tornadoes at times. The southern-most
complex has evolved into a linear MCS that is tracking toward
northwest MO/southwest IA, and is producing severe wind gusts. Both
of these clusters are supported by the aforementioned short wave
which will encourage an increase in the LLJ across central IA into
western WI later this evening. This should allow strong/severe
thunderstorms to spread into the Mid/Upper MS Valley after sunset.

Upstream across the northern High Plains, strongly diffluent
high-level flow is noted across eastern MT into the western Dakotas
ahead of a pronounced northern-Rockies short-wave trough. This short
wave will shift into eastern MT later tonight as 500mb speed max
rotates across northeast MT into southeast SK. Strong/severe
thunderstorms will be noted ahead of the surging cold front which
should advance across the western Dakotas by 06z.

..Darrow.. 06/16/2024

$$