580
ACUS01 KWNS 251916
SWODY1
SPC AC 251915

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
EVENING FROM EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible from east central/southeast
Mississippi across central Alabama into northwest Georgia through
late evening.  A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage and
isolated large hail will all be possible.

...20z Update..
Only minor adjustments were made to extend the Slight Risk further
southeast across southern Alabama with this update in alignment with
recent trends. Occasional rotating cells are noted on radar across
central/southern Alabama over the last couple of hours. Daytime
heating will continue across this region with occasional stronger
cell development expected through the afternoon. VAD profiles from
BMX, MXX continue to show favorable low-level curvature of
hodographs, indicative of SRH rich environments supporting rotating
cells. A couple of tornadoes, isolated wind damage, and isolated
large hail remain possible. See previous discussion below for more
information.

..Thornton.. 11/25/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025/

...MS/AL/GA through late evening...
A weakening midlevel trough will continue to eject
east-northeastward from the TN Valley to the Appalachians, in
advance of an amplifying trough from the northern Plains to the
upper MS Valley.  An associated/weak surface cold front will move
southeastward across LA/MS/AL, though the majority of the convective
threat today will be focused along a residual outflow boundary from
east central MS into central AL.  Low-level recovery into northeast
AL/northwest GA will depend on some clearing of clouds/rain, which
is uncertain.  Along and south of this boundary, that is being
loosely reinforced by ongoing convection, warming surface
temperatures into the 70s with mid-upper 60s dewpoints will
contribute to MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg.  Forcing for ascent will
linger into the afternoon and support additional thunderstorm
development, and there will be sufficient deep-layer vertical shear
for a couple of supercells.  Low-level shear/hodograph curvature
will be greatest along the residual outflow (per the BMX VWP)
through the afternoon, and then low-level flow will weaken by this
evening.  A couple of tornadoes and isolated wind damage/large hail
will be possible this afternoon into this evening.

$$