Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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521
FNUS22 KWNS 160652
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...Synopsis...
The upper ridge over the central and western US is forecast to
continue weakening as the upper trough deepens over the northern US
and another moves onshore over the West Coast. The increase in
westerly flow aloft will bolster surface winds over parts of
northern CA and the Great Basin with dry and breezy conditions
possible. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are expected over
much of the Rockies, though likely with wetting rainfall.

...Northern Great Basin and northeast CA...
As the shortwave moves onshore over the West, dry and breezy
conditions are expected over parts of the northern Great Basin into
northeastern CA on Day 2/Monday. Largely devoid of recent rainfall
over the last several days, fuels remain quite dry. Warm afternoon
temperatures and dry westerly flow of 15-20 mph are expected ahead
of the upper trough. Afternoon RH minimums of 12-20% are also
likely. This will support several hours of elevated fire-weather
conditions from northeastern CA into parts of NV and southern OR.

...Northern Rockies...
Ascent from the approaching upper trough will support another round
of showers and thunderstorms over parts of ID, MT and northern WY.
Despite more limited monsoon moisture (PWATS 0.6-0.9 inches) several
days of wetting rainfall have tempered fuels such that dry storms
and lightning ignitions are expected to be sporadic.

..Lyons.. 08/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$