Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
521 FNUS22 KWNS 160652 FWDDY2 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... The upper ridge over the central and western US is forecast to continue weakening as the upper trough deepens over the northern US and another moves onshore over the West Coast. The increase in westerly flow aloft will bolster surface winds over parts of northern CA and the Great Basin with dry and breezy conditions possible. Additionally, scattered thunderstorms are expected over much of the Rockies, though likely with wetting rainfall. ...Northern Great Basin and northeast CA... As the shortwave moves onshore over the West, dry and breezy conditions are expected over parts of the northern Great Basin into northeastern CA on Day 2/Monday. Largely devoid of recent rainfall over the last several days, fuels remain quite dry. Warm afternoon temperatures and dry westerly flow of 15-20 mph are expected ahead of the upper trough. Afternoon RH minimums of 12-20% are also likely. This will support several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions from northeastern CA into parts of NV and southern OR. ...Northern Rockies... Ascent from the approaching upper trough will support another round of showers and thunderstorms over parts of ID, MT and northern WY. Despite more limited monsoon moisture (PWATS 0.6-0.9 inches) several days of wetting rainfall have tempered fuels such that dry storms and lightning ignitions are expected to be sporadic. ..Lyons.. 08/16/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$