013
ACUS02 KWNS 290600
SWODY2
SPC AC 290558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central
Plains tomorrow (Saturday).

...Synopsis...
Mid-level troughs will meander along the East and West Coasts while
an upper ridge builds over the Interior West and a small mid-level
trough traverses the Plains tomorrow (Saturday). While surface high
pressure and associated stable conditions will overspread the MS
Valley and much of the Interior West, surface lee troughing will
support low-level moisture over the Plains states, along with
thunderstorm chances.

...High Plains into the southern and central Plains...
Deep-layer ascent from a glancing low-amplitude mid-level
perturbation, along with afternoon peak heating, will encourage
scattered thunderstorm development across the central/southern
Plains states. Both non-convection-allowing and convection-allowing
guidance members show multiple thunderstorm clusters organizing from
eastern CO into western TX, OK and KS during the late afternoon to
early overnight hours. These storms will benefit from modest lapse
rates atop mid 60s F surface dewpoints, yielding 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE. Forecast soundings show gradual veering winds with height,
contributing to modestly curved/elongated hodographs. As such,
transient supercells and multicellular clusters will be the main
storm modes, with some clusters potentially organizing into one or
more MCSs overnight. The current thinking is that sub-severe
wind/hail will occur with the stronger storms. While a couple
instances of severe wind/hail are possible, low confidence in a more
precise location of severe hazards precludes the introduction of
probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 08/29/2025

$$