774
ACUS02 KWNS 291712
SWODY2
SPC AC 291711

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1211 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the southern and central
Plains tomorrow (Saturday).

...Central/Southern High Plains/Great Plains vicinity...

An upper ridge will be centered over the southern/central Rockies on
Saturday. A weak shortwave impulse is forecast to top the ridge and
move across the High Plains into the southern Plains during the
afternoon and evening. This will result in modestly increasing
mid/upper level west/northwesterly flow atop weak low-level winds,
resulting in around 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes.

Latest forecast guidance indicates a weak surface low over NE and
another weak low over the TX/OK Panhandles by late afternoon. A cold
front will extend from central NE into western KS and then northeast
NM. Ahead of the front and surface lows, south/southeasterly
low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints beneath modestly steep
midlevel lapse rates. Where stronger heating occurs, 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE values will be possible. Scattered thunderstorms are expected
to develop during the afternoon from central NE/KS southwestward
into western OK/TX and eastern NM. Given the overall marginal
thermodynamic and kinematic space, transient supercells and
multi-cell clusters will be possible, with gusty winds and
sub-severe hail most probable in stronger convection. Strong storms
may be most likely across parts of eastern NM into western TX where
stronger heating is expected. With time, clustering may result in
some upscale growth into a forward propagating MCS during the
evening/nighttime hours. However, severe potential still appears
limited/uncertain, precluding probabilities.

..Leitman.. 08/29/2025

$$