052
ACUS02 KWNS 040630
SWODY2
SPC AC 040628

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 AM CST Tue Nov 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN WEST
OR/NORTHWEST CA AND THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday morning and
afternoon in western Oregon and far northwest California. Damaging
winds from showers and very isolated low-topped thunderstorms are
possible during the late afternoon to evening in the Northeast.

...Western OR and northwest CA...
A large-scale upper trough will advance inland across the Northwest
on Wednesday. Cool mid-level temperatures and ample large-scale
ascent associated with the upper trough will support weak buoyancy
sufficient for sporadic low-topped thunderstorms. Morning severe
potential should be confined to along the OR to far northern CA
coast, before expanding into the Willamette Valley by afternoon.
Strong deep-layer shear and enlarged hodographs early may yield a
few low-end supercells. These will be capable of producing a brief
tornado, localized severe gusts, and small to marginally severe
hail. Gradually subsiding hodograph curvature through the day and
lower surface dew points inland should yield diminishing convective
intensity towards sunset and along/east of the Cascades.

...Northeast...
Favorable peak heating timing of a vigorously amplifying shortwave
trough and attendant surface cyclogenesis may support a damaging
wind threat with mainly non-lightning producing showers from the
Lower Great Lakes to southern New England. Immediately along the
sharpening cold front, steepened lapse rates may foster downward
momentum transport of low-level westerlies, that should strengthen
to 50-60 kts. Surface-based buoyancy should be scant at most, likely
yielding only sporadic/very isolated thunderstorms amid predominant
showers. But given the degree of shear and intensifying large-scale
ascent, fast-moving low-topped convection could loosely organize
along the front from late afternoon into evening. Despite the
likelihood of substantial thermodynamic limitations, this setup
warrants a low-probability convective damaging wind highlight.

..Grams.. 11/04/2025

$$