748
ACUS02 KWNS 231727
SWODY2
SPC AC 231725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging
wind are possible on Friday across portions of the Dakotas into
northern Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move across the Canadian Prairies D2/Friday,
with a belt of enhanced westerly flow aloft overspreading the High
Plains into the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a low will move
across central Manitoba with a trailing cold front extending into
the northern Plains.

...Dakotas/Northern Minnesota...
Westerly flow aloft from the trough across Canada will move across
the northern periphery of a strengthening mid-level ridge across the
central Plains. With warming in the 850-700 mb level, it appears
that capping will likely be in place across much of the corridor
over the central Dakotas ahead of the surface front. Steep low to
mid-level lapse rates should aid in at least moderate instability
developing through the afternoon. As the wave ejects, some
eroding/weakening of the cap is expected across the central Dakotas.
Strong deep layer shear profiles will support initial supercell
development along the front. Large hail and damaging wind will be
the primary threats. It remains somewhat uncertain if storms will be
able to root and become surface based, with increasing inhibition to
the east. If a supercell can remain surface based as it moves into
increasing inhibition to the east, tornado potential will increase
given favorable deep layer shear and enlarged hodographs.

Storms will continue to spread eastward through the
afternoon/evening into northern/central Minnesota. With increasing
inhibition, it is likely that storm mode will gradually shift to
elevated clusters, with potential for damaging wind.

...Carolinas...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected near a surface
boundary sagging across the Carolinas Friday afternoon. Vertically
veering flow, increasing to around 20-30 kt around 1-3 km will
provide around 25 kt effective shear. Given the moderately unstable
air mass and steep low-level lapse rates, a few isolated organized
storms/clusters may produce damaging winds.

..Thornton.. 07/23/2026

$$