435
ACUS02 KWNS 200625
SWODY2
SPC AC 200624

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected from the Texas coast into the
Tennessee Valley and central/southern Appalachians on Friday. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper shortwave trough will migrate east from the central
Plains to the Ohio Valley on Friday. Meanwhile, an upper low will
develop southward across southern CA/northwest Mexico. Cold
temperatures beneath the upper low will support isolated lightning
flashes across far southern CA into the Lower CO Valley. Further
east, a broad area of warm advection will transport Gulf moisture
northward across the south-central states toward the TN Valley. As
the upper trough develops east, a weak surface low will move along a
warm front draped across the OH Valley, while a cold front shifts
east across the Ozarks into eastern TX.

Stronger deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the warm
sector, but is expected to weaken some with time while also becoming
increasingly displaced to the north of the warm sector (in tandem
with stronger large-scale ascent) into the afternoon/evening.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within a
modestly unstable airmass ahead of the cold front, but sub-optimal
thermodynamic profiles and weakening vertical shear will limit
severe potential.

..Leitman.. 11/20/2025

$$