669
ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
NM/SOUTHERN CO AND THE EASTERN MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from late afternoon
Wednesday through early morning Thursday in southern Colorado to
eastern New Mexico. Isolated damaging winds may occur across the
eastern Midwest to Lower Great Lakes from mid-afternoon to evening.

...CO/NM...
The next in a series of lower-amplitude southern-stream shortwave
troughs should accelerate across the Desert Southwest and reach the
southern Rockies vicinity by 12Z Thursday. Initial surface ridging
on Wednesday morning across the southern High Plains, in the wake of
a preceding shortwave impulse, suggests the diurnal severe-storm
threat will be limited in both coverage and intensity as richer
moisture remains largely confined to southwest TX. An isolated,
marginally severe hail/wind threat may develop over the Sangre de
Cristo Mountains across southern CO/northern NM during the late
afternoon to evening.

Strengthening large-scale ascent/wind profiles on Wednesday night
will aid in low-level moisture return across the High Plains of
eastern NM and far western TX. While capping should limit storm
development until early morning Thursday, there are signals in some
guidance that convection will develop in this time frame. This setup
could foster isolated large hail during the 06-12Z period over
eastern NM.

...Eastern IL to southeast MI/northwest OH...
Enhanced mid-level southwesterlies initially present over the
central Great Lakes at 12Z Wednesday should become confined to ON/QC
as a lower-amplitude shortwave trough dampens. Trailing to the south
of this, a residual belt of moderate 700-500 mb winds will persist
into Wednesday afternoon, along and ahead of a slowing/weakening
cold front. Mid-level lapse rates will remain weak and limit
buoyancy, but sufficient boundary-layer heating should exist for
scattered thunderstorms. Sporadic strong gusts capable of isolated
damaging winds are possible.

..Grams.. 06/02/2025

$$