546
ACUS03 KWNS 190711
SWODY3
SPC AC 190710

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across a broad region
from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Tuesday.
All severe hazards are possible, but swaths of damaging wind gusts
should be the primary severe risk Tuesday afternoon into the
nighttime hours.

...Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

A vigorous upper trough will spread across the region on Tuesday. A
broad area of strong deep-layer flow, especially by July standards,
will overlap a very moist airmass ahead of an eastward progressing
surface cold front. Widespread dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s
are expected. While some uncertainty exists regarding potential
morning convection in the form of a remnant MCS from the Day
2/Monday period across parts of MI/IN/OH, pockets of stronger
heating should occur, and given rich moisture/continuous warm
advection ahead of the surface front, strong destabilization is
forecast. While boundary layer moisture will begin the day somewhat
muted across parts of the Northeast, strong warm advection and
increasing southerly low-level flow across the Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast will also result in northward transport of richer boundary
layer moisture through evening. While instability may be somewhat
less further east into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, strong deep-layer
flow will envelop this region as well.

Supercell wind profiles are evident across the broad warm sector,
with 40+ kt westerly flow common above 850 mb. Where supercells can
develop and be maintained, all severe hazards will be possible.
However, given the strong flow field, and the progressive trough and
surface front, one or more bowing segments will quickly develop and
spread eastward. Swaths of damaging winds will be the primary
concern during the afternoon and into the nighttime hours.

..Leitman.. 07/19/2026

$$