858
ACUS03 KWNS 220727
SWODY3
SPC AC 220726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
MN...NORTHWEST WI...WESTERN UPPER MI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday across parts of the
northern Great Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley and Great
Lakes.

...Northern Great Plains into the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes...
Uncertainty remains rather high regarding storm potential on Monday
from the northern Great Plains into the upper MS Valley and Great
Lakes. However, with some conditional significant-severe potential
within a favorable environment, a Slight Risk has been added for
parts of MN into northwest WI and western upper MI, where confidence
is currently highest in isolated to widely scattered storm coverage.

A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and related surface low are
forecast to move eastward across parts of SK/MB on Monday. A
secondary surface low is forecast to develop along a trailing
surface trough/weak cold front across the Dakotas. A surface
boundary initially draped roughly from the Ohio Valley northwestward
through parts of IA and southeast SD is forecast to move northward
as a warm front, potentially reaching parts of central MN and
eastern ND by Monday evening.

Storm development/evolution across the region remains unclear, with
the stronger large-scale ascent expected to remain north of the
international border. However, strong to locally extreme instability
is expected to develop along/east of the surface trough across the
Dakotas, and along and to the south/west of the northward moving
warm front. While the warm sector may remain capped for much of the
day, at least isolated storm development will be possible near the
warm front, and also potentially near the surface trough/cold front.
Elevated convection may also develop to the cool side of the warm
front, especially during the evening when some intensification of a
southwesterly low-level jet is expected.

Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. Any
surface-based supercell development could pose a conditional risk of
all severe hazards, including some potential for significant hail
and/or wind given the very favorable thermodynamic environment.
Depending on the evolution of initial storm development, an MCS
could develop and move southeastward along the instability gradient,
though this scenario remains rather uncertain at this time.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Some guidance suggests a southeastward-moving cold front will slow
down or stall across eastern NC/SC, resulting in the potential for
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon, within a
moderately unstable environment. Should this occur, modest
northwesterly flow aloft could support sufficient storm organization
for an isolated damaging wind and hail threat. This scenario remains
uncertain, but severe probabilities may eventually be needed if
confidence increases.

..Dean.. 06/22/2024

$$