423
ACUS03 KWNS 140824
SWODY3
SPC AC 140824

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CA COASTAL AREAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms may impact southern California coastal areas
south of Vandenberg AFB into the Los Angeles Basin Monday,
accompanied by at least some risk for damaging wind gusts and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes.

...Discussion...
To the northeast of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over the
southern mid-latitude Pacific (between 150-160W longitude), models
indicate that a vigorous short wave perturbation will undergo
further amplification while digging offshore of the British Columbia
and Pacific Northwest coast during this period.  It appears that
this will be accompanied by lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis, and
force an initially significant downstream trough inland across
California and much of the Great Basin, into the northern Rockies
Monday night.  As this occurs, deep surface troughing is also
forecast to develop inland, centered near the northern Rockies
through the central and southern Great Plains by 12Z Tuesday.

Guidance indicates that the lead perturbation will be accompanied by
an intense mid/upper jet (including a 100-110+ kt maximum around 500
mb) nosing inland across southern California through the Four
Corners.  Forcing associated with this feature may be supporting
modest cyclogenesis offshore of the California coast by the
beginning of the period.  The low may deepen a bit further while
occluding and migrating inland south of the San Francisco Bay
vicinity during the day Monday.

...Southern California coast...
It appears that a corridor of low-level moistening, along and ahead
of the front trailing the occluding surface low, will gradually
contribute to sufficient destabilization to support deepening
convective development while spreading inland across coastal areas
south of Vandenberg AFB through the Los Angeles Basin, perhaps
beginning as early as late Monday morning.  Aided by mid/upper
forcing for ascent and strong mid-level cooling, NAM forecast
soundings suggest thermodynamic profiles may become supportive of
thunderstorm development, in the presence of strong deep-layer
shear.  Wind profiles may include 40-50 kt southerly flow around the
850 mb level, with sizable low-level hodographs developing, aided by
orography, south of the western Transverse Ranges into the Los
Angeles Basin, potentially contributing to an environment conducive
to supercells capable of producing tornadoes, in addition to
potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

$$