982
ACUS03 KWNS 281839
SWODY3
SPC AC 281838

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Thu May 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms, some possibly severe with wind and hail potential,
are expected over parts of the Plains states on Saturday. The most
concentrated area is forecast to be over western Nebraska and South
Dakota.

...Synopsis...
As a mid-level shortwave trough rotates from the Rockies into the
central Plains a lee surface cylcone will develop across western
Kansas. A dryline will mix eastward across southwest Kansas into the
Texas Panhandle.

...Northern High Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop from northern
Oklahoma and central Kansas back into western Nebraska and southwest
North Dakota where low to potentially mid 70s dewpoints are expected
to develop northeast of a surface dryline. While most of this
dryline should remain capped due to minimal forcing, storm
development is expected across northeast Colorado and northwest
Kansas into western Nebraska during the afternoon as the mid-level
trough advects across the region and mid-level temperatures cool.
Mid-level flow is initially forecast to remain relatively weak, but
strengthen to ~40 knots by late afternoon to early evening when
storm organization may improve. Steep lapse rates will support large
hail and severe wind gusts with these storms which may eventually
grow upscale into a cluster during the evening.

...Kansas into northwest Texas...
Farther south along the dryline, forcing will remain somewhat
nebulous amid rising heights aloft and weak convergence. However,
forecast soundings show an uncapped airmass with strong heating (mid
to upper 90s). This may support a few severe storms and if they
develop, some storm organization is possible given 50 to 70 knots of
flow forecast around 300mb. Damaging winds and perhaps some large
hail would be the primary threats with this activity.

..Bentley.. 05/28/2026

$$