118
ACUS03 KWNS 281850
SWODY3
SPC AC 281849

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms are possible across the southern High Plains on
Saturday.

...Central/Southern High Plains...

An upper level northwest flow regime will persist on Saturday, with
a large-scale upper trough remaining over the eastern U.S. while
ridging builds over the West. South/southeasterly low-level flow
will maintain 60s F dewpoints across eastern CO/western KS southward
into eastern NM and western TX. Steep midlevel lapse rates will
foster MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range across the High Plains.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop over the higher terrain by
mid-afternoon and spread east/southeast into better boundary layer
moisture and more favorable instability. Vertical shear will remain
modest, but vertically veering profiles will support 20-30 kt
effective shear. Elongated forecast hodographs suggest small hail
will be possible within this environment, while steep low-level
lapse rates support stronger downdrafts and locally gusty winds.
Severe probabilities could be need for parts of the region in
subsequent outlooks if confidence increases in a more concentrated
corridor of marginal severe potential.

..Leitman.. 08/28/2025

$$