613
FXUS63 KEAX 031102
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
602 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

...12Z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable conditions this weekend.

- Above normal temperatures mid to late next week.

- Dry weather conditions are expected the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A broad area of high pressure is centered over the eastern Great
Lakes early this morning, resulting in a light easterly wind and dry
conditions for the region. In the upper-levels, broad upper
ridging is noted with a 500mb ridge over the Southwest. This
will help keep the next shortwave, moving southeast out Alberta
and into the Northern Plains, to stay north of the area. It
will however, push another weak front south through the area
Sunday, reinforcing the drier airmass over the region.
Regarding temperatures this weekend, highs today will be similar
to slightly warmer than Friday, with highs in the low to mid
70s expected, which is very close to normal for this time of
year. Similar near-normal to slightly above-normal conditions
are expected Sunday. For next week, low-level flow turns
southerly by Tuesday, as the surface high shifts into the
eastern US. This southerly flow will help temperatures climb
back above normal by Tuesday with highs climbing to 10-15
degrees above normal values for the later half of next week.

While several weak shortwaves will move across the middle of the
country, there is a lack of moisture available for any precipitation
to occur. As a result, the entire forecast looks dry with a
greater than 95% of dry conditions. The only day when there is
more than a 0-5% chance is Thursday night. A shortwave moves
east, mainly north of the area, with some minor ascent noted
along the northern edge of the low-level jet. For now, the
atmosphere looks too dry to carry anything more than around a 5%
chance of precipitation across northern Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 601 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast with light
winds prevailing through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB