411
FXUS63 KEAX 151058
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
558 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Well above normal temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s
  expected Wednesday through Friday
  - At this point in the season, up to around 15-20 deg above normal

* Next chance for thunderstorms arrives Friday into Friday night
  - A few strong to isolated severe storms are possible for
    eastern Kansas and western Missouri with gusty winds and
    small hail the main threats.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Today, a upper level trough will move from the western Rockies into
the central Rockies. In response to this feature, upstream upper
level ridging will become more amplified over the central CONUS with
the ridge axis directly over the forecast area. This will allow
highs to move 15 to 20 degrees above normal today with highs in the
upper 70s to mid 80s even with a surface ridge of high pressure in
control providing weak mixing. Tomorrow as the upper level trough
moves from the central Rockies into the northern Plains the upper
level ridge axis will shift just east of the area providing subtle
height falls over the forecast area. However, increased WAA, will
again aid in highs rising into the low to mid 80s.

The pattern becomes active in the Friday through Saturday timeframe
as the upper level trough extending from the northern Plains
southwestward into the southern Rockies looks to develop into a
split flow. As the northern stream of the upper trough moves across
the northern Plains on Friday it will sag a cold front towards the
area Friday afternoon into Friday night. This will allow showers and
thunderstorms to develop. With this new split flow solution, forcing
would not be as strong as on previous runs, however a more robust
NAM solution has 1000-1500J/Kg of MUCAPE and modest effective shear
of 20-30kts which may be enough for a few strong storms however,
organized severe weather would not be expected. By Saturday, the
cold front will bisect the forecast area as the southern stream of
the trough which is depicted as a closed upper low on the GFS
solution, but still an upper wave on the EC, will move into the area
this will bring another of showers and thunderstorms to the area
(particularly the southern and eastern CWA) Saturday morning.
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, broad upper level troughing
is expected to move through the central CONUS continuing shower
chances. Sunday the upper level system pushes east of the area and
surface high pressure building into the forecast area drying
conditions out. Highs Friday, out ahead of the cold front will rise
into the upper 70s to mid 80s. Behind the front Saturday, highs will
drop into the upper 60s to mid 70s before return to near seasonal
normal Sunday with highs in the 60s.

Early next week, looks to remain relative dry as Monday into Tuesday
a upper level trough quickly moves from the Pacific Northwest into
the Upper Midwest. This upper level trough will weaken as it does so
but it will force a cold front into the area Monday night into
Tuesday. The EC and GFS currently depict a dry frontal passage
however the NBM has introduce some spurious slight chance PoPs (15-
25%) in the Monday night into Tuesday period. Highs Monday will rise
into the 70s before falling back into the upper 60s to mid 70s on
Tuesday behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 556 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conds with bkn mid-lvl clouds becmg sct around 20Z are
expected thru the pd. Winds will be out of the south btn 5-10kts
thru 20Z when they will back to the SE and remain btn 5-10kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73