205
FXUS63 KEAX 110428
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1128 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Potential for fog tonight- Saturday morning.

* Mild temperatures through the weekend with dry conditions.

* Scattered showers with a few rumbles of thunder possible Sunday
  night into Monday as next cold front moves through the region.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Have issued a dense fog advisory for the eastern half of the
forecast area. Satellite data from the nighttime microphysics
RGB combination, with observations, shows fog developing in an
area from about Putnam and Schuyler Counties to the east side of
the KC metro and southward. It seems very likely that dense fog
will become more widespread in this area given the rain that
area received and the calm winds. Took the advisory out to 15Z
tomorrow since it`s October and fog will linger longer and with
it already developing, it may be thicker and take longer to
burn/ lift. The western extent of fog development may be
hindered by higher clouds moving in and the lack of widespread
rainfall.

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

As of 19Z, cold front has roughly made it`s way to the I-35
corridor. Clouds ahead and along the front have kept temperatures in
the 60s, but with partial clearing, temperatures have quickly warmed
into the 70s.  Temperatures will be kept cooler across central
Missouri, while areas farther west have warmed into the upper 70s
and lower 80s. The clouds are expected to clear tonight as surface
cold front builds south of the region.  This will lead to good
radiational cooling; however, lingering surface moisture from
morning showers/storms will likely lead to fog development.  Both
the RAP and HRRR show fog developing in central Missouri towards
midnight, and expanding westward through the night in the easterly
winds.

Morning fog may be somewhat stubborn lifting into a stratus deck
before scattering in the afternoon hours.  As such, have kept
temperatures cooler in central Missouri once again.  Increasing
pressure gradient through the afternoon into the overnight hours
Saturday night will keep winds and temperatures mild.  Overnight
temperatures look to remain 10-15 F above normal.

Upper tough just off the Pacific NW coast is expected to become more
elongated as it builds east into the upper ridge. Cold front
associated with this system is expected to move through the region
late Sunday night into Monday. Limited instability and shear in the
low and mid levels of the troposphere should keep this activity to
showers with a few rumbles of thunder.

Upper ridge builds north from the southern plains midweek next week
with a few ridge riders potentially creating sporadic chances for
storms...especially across northern Missouri.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri Oct 10 2025

Have backed off on fog and stratus for the terminals as it looks
more likely to be just east of all sites. There is still a
chance (40-50%) that some stratus builds westward into the
terminals with timing after 12Z favored. So with it being later
and less probable, have kept all sites, except for KMCK, VFR.
Otherwise, light winds are expected through the forecast with
winds shifting from the east-northeast to the southeast
tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for MOZ006>008-
     015>017-023>025-030>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB