334
FXUS63 KEAX 032046
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
246 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated sprinkles and snow flurries linger through the
  afternoon. Most will probably not see anything. Accumulations
  are not likely sans the Truman Lake region where a tenth or
  two-tenths is possible.

- Coldest temperatures of the season are upon us with overnight
  lows in the teens and single digits. Temperatures are
  expected to be below 0F across far northern and northeast MO.

- Several uncertainties remain with Saturday`s system. There
  have been significant fluctuations in the track and snow
  amounts depending on the scenarios presented by various model
  guidance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A quite cold air mass continues to make its way through the region.
Fortunately a push of warm air advection ahead of the front keeps
the bitterly cold temperatures at bay until this evening and
overnight. As the front moves across the region, some lift from a
passing shortwave aloft as well as the front itself looks to
generate some sporadic snow flurries around the region through the
day. The outlook for flurries has become a bit more pessimistic as
warm air advection with a little boost from pre-frontal solar
heating has expanded the dew point depressions at low level. Still
there remains enough saturation in the DGZ that sprinkles/flurries
are possible. No accumulations are expected with the exception of
the Lake of the Ozarks and the Truman Lake areas where moisture is a
little more favorable. Even with that, accumulations look to be
limited to around 0.1-0.2 inches.

Temperatures continue to cool behind the front. After the sun sets,
temperatures are expected to cascade downward. Lows range from the
teens south of the MO River, to single digits between the MO River
and US-36, and below zero across far northern and northeastern MO
tantalizingly close to Cold Weather Advisory criteria. Some places
may make a run at record cold minimum temperatures for 12/4.
Persistent cold air advection through Thursday keeps maximum
temperatures at their coldest of the season with highs ranging from
15 across far NE MO to 30 toward far east central KS. The broad
surface high combined with a shift in mid and upper level wind turns
flow back southerly resuming regularly scheduled early December
programming. Highs quickly rebound into the upper 30s and low 40s to
close out the week.

Forecast guidance for the weekend remains variable. Depending on
which model you consult, the track of the storm has shifted north or
south of the area. Most ensemble members favor the northern track
taking the core of the storm through central IA; however, this does
keep chances for accumulating snowfall Saturday over much of the
area along and north of I-70. However, these deviations have not
added much certainty or confidence to the forecast. Similar to
yesterday, the primary reason for this uncertainty is how the upper
wave will manifest itself across the central CONUS. Unlike a more
traditional closed cyclone off the Pacific or a deep digging trough
from interior Canada. This storm looks to be the product of a more
subtle perturbation in the flow. Across many model members, this
perturbation is being represented as a layered wave with a northern
and southern component of which the cores bypass the area north and
south; hence the significant snowfall shift. This contrasts the more
concentrated single wave representation models suggested yesterday.
I anticipate continued changes in this wave structure thus continued
fluctuations in where the core of the snow will fall. It would not
be surprising for these fluctuations to be fairly stark in terms of
location and amounts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1155 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Main concerns this TAF period are sub-VFR ceilings this
afternoon and any precipitation potential. Regarding the latter,
precipitation has been very light/brief upstream, so removed
mention of RASN in the TAFs with this update, as no impacts are
expected at the terminals. MVFR conditions expected (>80
percent chance) through 00z or so, with improvement to VFR
expected this evening and continuing through Thursday. End
timing of MVFR is a little uncertain, so a couple of TAF
amendments may be required for this. Regarding winds, expect
north winds through tonight around 8 to 15 kt, diminishing
slowly after sunset. By Thursday morning, winds may become more
northeasterly around 5 kt.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...CMS