953
FXUS63 KEAX 071710
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1110 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Roller coaster temperatures this week with below normal
  temperatures today/tonight, a brief warm up on Tuesday ahead of
  potentially the coldest air of the season thus far late week.

* Light snow event possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Surface low pressure has moved into the Mississippi River Valley
with north- northeast flow developing behind the cold front sweeping
through the region.  This fetch will advect low lying stratus into
the region leading to a fairly gray day today.  The cloud cover
combined with cold air advection will keep temperatures 10-15
degrees below normal today and tonight across eastern Kansas into
western Missouri and through tomorrow afternoon as the cold dense
air lingers across central and eastern portions of the state on
Monday.  The low lying clouds will thin and develop some breaks on
Monday as southwest flow draws warmer drier air into the region. The
effects of the sustained southwest flow will be more noticeable on
Tuesday as temperatures warm 5-10 degrees above normal; however,
these conditions are not expected to last as a trough deepens into
the Upper Midwest and the associated cold front swings through the
region on Wednesday.  A series of short waves are expected to build
southeast in northwest flow aloft and could lead to a light snow
event Wednesday night into Thursday. While the entire profile looks
to be below freezing for locations north of I-70, the dendritic
layer looks to be fairly high between 500-600 mb.  Saturation within
this layer looks limited in duration, and thus the LREF ensemble
only suggests ~10 percent chance of snow amounts over 1" near the
Iowa/Missouri border with lesser amount/probabilities farther south.

Outlook for next weekend is interesting in that models are hinting
that Hudson Bay Low drags air from the arctic circle south into the
central US as a wave moves from western Canada towards the Upper
Midwest.  Depending on how this wave evolves, interacts with the
thermal boundary and the trajectory the system takes,
additional snow would be possible. At this point, the ECMWF
solution is more of an outlier, so have kept the forecast dry
beyond Thursday for the time being. What is more certain at this
point is the cold air, which has a 30-40 percent chance of
remaining in the teens or colder for highs on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1106 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Ceilings are improving from north to south as drier air builds
southward. Have trended toward higher MVFR and eventually VFR
conditions. Latest ensemble guidance still suggest ~20%
probabilities for low MVFR ceilings though. So with that in
mind, have some mention scattered wording in since it`s more
probable the area will trend to higher ceilings. Northerly winds
early in the period will become light/variable overnight and
then trend light from the south tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...CDB