583
FXUS63 KEAX 152100
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
300 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler on Sunday, though highs will still peak above-normal for
  most locations.

- Precipitation chances return Monday with the best probabilities
  (30-50%) across eastern areas.

- Above-normal temperatures are expected through much of the
  upcoming week. A system is favored to return more widespread
  rain chances by Thursday, though details are still uncertain
  for now.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

A weak, dry cold front is pushing south through the area early this
afternoon. This is occurring as cyclonic flow returns to the
area, compressing the persistent ridge that has been over the
area this past week. Temperatures are only marginally cooler
than yesterday behind weak cold air advection, still about 20
degrees above normal for this time of year. While relative
humidity has dropped to the 30 percent range across western
areas this afternoon, fairly light wind will help mitigate fire
concerns today.

Sunday will be cooler behind the front, though with highs still
generally peaking 5 to 10 degrees above normal as the coldest air
misses the area well to the east. Dry air behind the front will
intrude as a surface high to our north brings in an easterly breeze.
Humidity will fall further, down to around 20 percent east of I-35.
Similar to today, however, wind will be light and fire concerns will
remain low.

The next chance of precipitation will come on Monday as the ridge
across the region finally relents to a compact, closed midlevel low.
A shortwave ahead of this feature will arrive first, bringing lower
PoPs (10-30%) Monday morning and afternoon, generally south of I-70.
The main trough will follow Monday evening as the midlevel low pulls
east over Nebraska. The timing of this system has it arriving
after the bulk of the moisture has already been advected past
the area, however, with the best upper level forcing displaced
to our north and east. This will likely mean the best rain
chances will similarly stay north and east of the area Monday
night. Accordingly, the best chances to see rain will generally
be along and east of Highway 65 Monday evening. A few
thunderstorms can be expected with CAPE values in the 200-300
J/kg range, though severe storms are not anticipated. Forecast
rain amounts remain low, generally only a tenth of an inch or
two.

Further out, ensemble guidance generally favors the more active
pattern to continue as a stronger trough moves onto the west coast
Tuesday and begins progressing east. This still appears most likely
to impact our area in the Wednesday to Thursday timeframe. While
certainty remains on the lower end, guidance suggests much stronger
gulf moisture advection which would lend to a more widespread rain
event, most likely on Thursday. Otherwise, temperatures will trend a
little cooler than they have been but generally remain above-normal
for much of the upcoming week. The potential late week system is
favored to bring cooler temperatures, but not cool enough for winter
impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1145 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR through the period with winds gusting up to 20 mph
especially over the northern sites. Winds diminish near sunset
this evening and start to turn northeasterly by Sunday morning.
Mid-level clouds also start to build in overnight but clear out
by Sunday morning.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Myers
AVIATION...Soria