365
FXUS63 KEAX 072023
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
223 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very cold tonight/tomorrow morning with lows ranging from the
single digits in far northern MO to the low 20s south of I-70.

- Low probability for accumulating snow Wednesday night into
Thursday. Highest probabilities for >0.1" of snow is across far
north central into northeastern MO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

A weak mid-level shortwave trough may provide just enough
forcing to wring out the little bit of moisture in the
atmosphere, leading to a few flurries across far northern MO.
Probabilities look less than 10% in northern MO, and are higher
into IA, so have not added any mention at this time. Otherwise,
it looks dry and cold. As high pressure settles into the Upper
Midwest to Great Lakes, inverted surface ridging trails
southwestward into northern MO. This will lead to light winds.
What may limit how cold lows get tonight, is southwesterly flow
on the western side of the inverted surface ridge. This will
lead to some WAA but may also support cloud cover moving back
into the area. Overall, northern to northeastern MO is more
likely to see clear skies, at least for a portion of the night,
and light winds and temperatures in that part of the forecast
area could fall into the single digits. It`s a little more
uncertain further south and west as cloud cover may linger
longer or not erode at all. So lows for those areas will be
warmer, though still very cold, with temperatures in the 20s.

Temperatures rebound during the day Monday but will be much warmer
by Tuesday as we see highs climb into the 50s across the
southwestern half of the forecast area. The next decent chance for
precipitation comes Wednesday night into Thursday. With the area
remaining under broad northwesterly flow, there is subtle shortwave
troughing and an associated elongated jet streak. There may be some
weak/subtle frontogenesis underneath the left front quadrant of
that elongated jet streak. Within this subtly dynamic
environment, snow may develop with minor accumulations possible
for the northeastern half of the forecast area. Overall, there
is roughly a 35-45% chance for any accumulating snow (0.1" or
more) for far northern into northeastern MO. Probabilities
diminish with southwestward extent and just clip the
northeastern portions of the KC metro.

There are several other opportunities for precipitation as the
northwesterly flow regime persists through the weekend. But
given the large variability in the models, the probability for
any accumulating for any other 24-hr period late in the week is
generally less than 20%. There are also increasing probabilities
for frigid temperatures to settle into the region this weekend.
For Saturday, forecast lows are in the single digits above and
below zero. For northern MO, there is a greater than 33% chance
for subzero lows north of a Maryville to near Moberly line.
Deterministic guidance shows a strong 1030+mb high pressure
center dropping into the middle of the country. Origins of this
airmass are from the Yukon and the Northwest Territories of
Canada, and the interior of AK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1106 AM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Ceilings are improving from north to south as drier air builds
southward. Have trended toward higher MVFR and eventually VFR
conditions. Latest ensemble guidance still suggest ~20%
probabilities for low MVFR ceilings though. So with that in
mind, have some mention scattered wording in since it`s more
probable the area will trend to higher ceilings. Northerly winds
early in the period will become light/variable overnight and
then trend light from the south tomorrow.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB