017
FXUS63 KEAX 171124
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
624 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures again today with highs 15-20
  degrees warmer than usual for this time of year.

- A broken line of storms expected to move through the area from this
  afternoon into the overnight. The strongest storms may
  produce gusty winds and small hail.

- Much cooler temperatures move in for the weekend, though this just
  gets the area back to more seasonal levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Upper-level ridging that has been dominating the middle of the
country is finally being pushed east as a strong upper-level system
tracks into the northern Plains and troughing in the western
Atlantic becomes more progressive. The northern Plains upper trough
will help to push a cold front southeastward into the area
today-tonight. Modestly strong southerly to southwesterly winds
ahead of the surface front will help push high temperatures into
the low to middle 80s. With normal highs across the area in the
middle 60s, today`s highs are shaping up to be 15-20 degrees
above normal. Additionally, the modestly strong surface flow
will allow dewpoints to climb into the mid to upper 50s this
afternoon. If the area mixes deeper, these could be lower, which
would limit instability further and then limit storm development.
Dewpoints creep into the lower 60s during the evening and
overnight hours ahead of the front as diurnal mixing weakens.
The unseasonably warm and moist surface conditions, combined
with relatively weak mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to
only modest and mainly elevated MUCAPE of around 500-750 J/kg.
While increasing mid to upper-level flow will support stronger
shear, the overall weak instability keeps the potential for
severe storms relatively low. But frontal forcing will likely
lead to a broken line of showers and storms from this afternoon
into the overnight. The strongest storms may produces some gusty
winds and small hail. However, given the timing of these
storms, through prime Friday evening outdoor activities,
lightning will be the a bigger impact.

For Saturday, as the main upper trough digs into the middle of the
country, a stronger cold front will push through the area.
Additional showers and storms are possible along this front,
especially for our eastern zones and into eastern Missouri. There
will be a better combination of CAPE and shear, depending on the
frontal timing, Saturday with the eastern portion of the forecast
area in the right entrance region of the upper-jet. While the
convective outlook places the greatest risk for severe storms east
of the area, if the system slows down, this risk could creep west
into our forecast area. As it stands now, the more probable outcome
is for our eastern zones to be close to storm initiation with the
severe risk increasing east and south of the area into the
overnight hours.

Mush cooler air will move into the region behind the Saturday front.
That will knock temperatures back to more seasonal levels highs in
the middle 60s expected for Sunday. The upper pattern becomes more
progressive next week with low-level flow returning Monday, allowing
for warmer temperatures, followed by another front and return to
more seasonal levels through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

VFR conditions expected today with increasing southerly winds.
A broken line of showers and storms is expected to move through
the area from this afternoon into the overnight hours. Timing
remains consistent with precipitation affecting the terminals
from around 23Z to 04Z from north to south as the line moves
through. Given the anticipated broken nature, have maintained
the PROB30 mention.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB