


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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017 FXUS63 KEAX 171124 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 624 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above normal temperatures again today with highs 15-20 degrees warmer than usual for this time of year. - A broken line of storms expected to move through the area from this afternoon into the overnight. The strongest storms may produce gusty winds and small hail. - Much cooler temperatures move in for the weekend, though this just gets the area back to more seasonal levels. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 238 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 Upper-level ridging that has been dominating the middle of the country is finally being pushed east as a strong upper-level system tracks into the northern Plains and troughing in the western Atlantic becomes more progressive. The northern Plains upper trough will help to push a cold front southeastward into the area today-tonight. Modestly strong southerly to southwesterly winds ahead of the surface front will help push high temperatures into the low to middle 80s. With normal highs across the area in the middle 60s, today`s highs are shaping up to be 15-20 degrees above normal. Additionally, the modestly strong surface flow will allow dewpoints to climb into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. If the area mixes deeper, these could be lower, which would limit instability further and then limit storm development. Dewpoints creep into the lower 60s during the evening and overnight hours ahead of the front as diurnal mixing weakens. The unseasonably warm and moist surface conditions, combined with relatively weak mid-level lapse rates, will contribute to only modest and mainly elevated MUCAPE of around 500-750 J/kg. While increasing mid to upper-level flow will support stronger shear, the overall weak instability keeps the potential for severe storms relatively low. But frontal forcing will likely lead to a broken line of showers and storms from this afternoon into the overnight. The strongest storms may produces some gusty winds and small hail. However, given the timing of these storms, through prime Friday evening outdoor activities, lightning will be the a bigger impact. For Saturday, as the main upper trough digs into the middle of the country, a stronger cold front will push through the area. Additional showers and storms are possible along this front, especially for our eastern zones and into eastern Missouri. There will be a better combination of CAPE and shear, depending on the frontal timing, Saturday with the eastern portion of the forecast area in the right entrance region of the upper-jet. While the convective outlook places the greatest risk for severe storms east of the area, if the system slows down, this risk could creep west into our forecast area. As it stands now, the more probable outcome is for our eastern zones to be close to storm initiation with the severe risk increasing east and south of the area into the overnight hours. Mush cooler air will move into the region behind the Saturday front. That will knock temperatures back to more seasonal levels highs in the middle 60s expected for Sunday. The upper pattern becomes more progressive next week with low-level flow returning Monday, allowing for warmer temperatures, followed by another front and return to more seasonal levels through the end of the week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions expected today with increasing southerly winds. A broken line of showers and storms is expected to move through the area from this afternoon into the overnight hours. Timing remains consistent with precipitation affecting the terminals from around 23Z to 04Z from north to south as the line moves through. Given the anticipated broken nature, have maintained the PROB30 mention. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CDB AVIATION...CDB