479
FXUS63 KEAX 281709
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1209 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Showers This Morning, Mainly West and Southwest of Kansas City

- Temperatures in Upper 70s to Lower 80s Next Few Days

- Isolated to Scattered Shower Chances Over the Weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

The H5 ridge axis while sliding eastward has experienced moderate
deamplification over the past 12-18 hours from troughing over the
western CONUS. As a result, the vort max ejecting out of western
Kansas has been pulled back even further west, moving the stronger
dCVA and large scale lift. This has set up a stronger isallobaric
gradient primarily west of the Interstate 135 corridor, and has also
kept the warm front further southwest from southwest Kansas into
western Oklahoma. Weak isentropic ascent has managed to push its way
into the southern Flint Hills. Upper-level cloud cover has expanded
further to the northeast, with its leading edge oriented just west
of Lincoln NE to southeast of Kansas City as of 08z this morning.
Overnight CAMs gradually advance this to areas west and southwest of
Kansas City between 10-12z this morning, and may clip portions of
the Kansas City metro between 12z-14z. However heaviest QPF axis has
shifted further west, and the HREF mean QPF depicts this from near
Wichita KS toward Joplin MO, though is important to note that the
northeast extent of this line is not as far as it was in last
night`s HREF cycle. While the warm front may still reach past the
Kansas City metro, it may not advance much past Central Missouri.
Kansas City may only see a few hundredths of an inch rain to maybe
one-tenth of an inch of rain. The current trend is for much of
central and northern Missouri to miss out on the rainfall outside of
a few isolated sprinkles. The stronger instability axis so far has
been well behind the warm front, and not sure if our southwest
counties will see any kind of instability while the mid-level lift
is available. Therefore, our southwest counties may only see a
stratiform storm mode, and not much in the way of true convection.
Stronger H5 and H3 height gradients will provide somewhat strong
flow, resulting in shear values around 30 kts, but due to the lack
instability, it does not appear that any kind of shower would be
able to fully realize this. After 15z this late morning into early
afternoon, that mid-level vort max that has provided the extra lift
for activity over western and central Kansas heads southward. H5
ridge axis continues to shift eastward as troughing over the western
CONUS forces the pattern to progress. By the afternoon hours today,
expecting to see subtle H5 height rises that will bring an end to
precipitation development, and may clear out a decent amount of the
cloud cover. There are some subtle hints in model soundings that
show lingering moisture may be possible with a weak inversion that
could hang onto some scattered cloud cover. This shift west of the
precipitation will have an impact on the temperature forecast for
Thursday afternoon. Central Missouri and eastward should be able to
reach the lower 80s, perhaps even mid 80s. The NBM seems to have
caught onto a westward shift in the rain potential allowing for warm
conditions further east, as the inner-quartile spread for highs
today is in the lower 80s. For areas closer to the KS-MO state line,
a bit more spread is noticeable in temperatures, as this is where
the edge of the precipitation and dense cloud cover from late
morning will position. For areas in Linn [KS], Miami [KS], Bates
[MO] Counties, temperatures may only be in the lower to mid 70s.
Inner-quartile range is between 71F and and 80F, but based on
current cloud trends on satellite, would lean more toward values in
the 25th-50th percentile, unless strong subsidence quickly occurs
before noon today. By the evening, surface anticyclone continues to
push across the Ohio River Valley,and weak surface cyclone over
western Kansas tracks more southeast following the mid-level vort
max.

Heading into the weekend, we may experience a minor to moderate
blocking pattern. Deterministic solutions are suggesting a deep
closed-low system stalling over the eastern Great Lakes Region, with
another closed-low just off the west coast that may force the H5
ridge axis to remain fairly stagnant across the central CONUS. This
ridge axis may try to amplify if southwesterly flow from the desert
southwest provides WAA which could try to force some height rises
eastward. This may end up in competition from disturbances emanating
from the eastern Pacific PV anomaly. Temperatures may climb back
into the lower and mid 80s across most of the forecast area. The
inner-quartile spreads amongst NBM guidance generally sit in this
range, though the 10th-90th spreads are a bit wider. Some ensemble
members do depict a few disturbances moving across the central
Plains into the lower Missouri River Valley over the weekend that
could present isolated to scattered shower activity. The limiting
factor could be available moisture. If our flow remains more
southwesterly and we are able to mix drier air, our dewpoint
depressions could be substantial which would eat into the QPF.
Ensemble probabilities have expanded 15-25% chances for measurable
rain primarily west of Hwy. 65. Will continue to monitor where extra
mid-level lift could help generate some activity. With broad surface
anticyclone sitting over the western Great Lakes and middle
Mississippi River Valley, there is not much surface support to get
robust activity going at this time, and most solutions show better
destabilization west of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Very quiet TAF period expected this afternoon and tonight.
Winds will be light and out of the southeast with VFR conditions
expected though the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...WFO EAX