


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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881 FXUS63 KEAX 160744 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 244 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Well above normal temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s continue through Saturday - At this point in the season, to around 15 deg above normal * Next chance for thunderstorms arrives late Friday afternoon into Friday night and may continue into Saturday - A few strong to isolated severe storms will be possible - Main Threats: Strong wind 50 to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size - Where: Primarily eastern KS and western MO && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Today a mid-level trough over the Great Basin region will move into the eastern Rockies. This will shift the upper level ridge, that has resided over the area the past couple days, just east of the area. This may result in subtle height falls, however a surface front associated with the upper level trough will move into the western Plains acting to tighten the pressure gradient across the forecast area. So, despite the subtle height falls, strengthening WAA will still allow highs to rise into the low to mid 80s. Tomorrow the mid- level trough will move into the northern Plains. This will force a weak cold front into the area during the late afternoon and evening. Continued WAA out ahead of this front will allow highs to rise into the low to mid 80s. Thunderstorms are expected to develop out of this front in an area that will be conducive for a few strong to perhaps isolated severe storm. Instability, off the more unstable NAM suggests MUCAPE values between 1000-1500J/Kg with effective shear in the 35-40kt range however, limiting factors are modest moisture with dewpoints in the upper 50s as well as mushy lapse rates. All that being said, storms capable of gusty winds to 50-60 mph and hail up to the size of a quarter would be the main threat with any stronger storm. Storms will continue to press slowly east Friday night as the cold front slowly moves across the area before exiting Saturday morning. Shower and storm chances will continue on Saturday (with the best chances across the eastern CWA with PoPs of 50-70%) as a secondary broad upper level trough digs from the Plains into the Midwest. Highs Saturday, will still reach the mid 70s to lower 80s as CAA lags well behind the front. CAA will eventually filter into the area Saturday night with surface high pressure building into the area on Sunday which will bring a very normal mid- October day with highs in the low to mid 60s. The begin of next work week will feature a rapid and brief warmup as a upper level trough moves from the eastern Rockies into the Plains states. This will force a cold front through the Plains with local area wedged between the departing surface high and front. Modest WAA ahead of the front will aid in highs rising into the low to mid 70s. The cold front moves through the area Monday night however, how much moisture will be available for this system is uncertain. The GFS depicts mainly a dry frontal passage whereas the EC does produce showers consequently the NBM has left us with spurious slight to chance PoPs (15-30% chance) through the Monday night/Tuesday period. Behind the front on Tuesday, highs will fall back into the mid 60s to near 70. Surface high pressure looks to build into the region midweek with highs on Wednesday in the 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1054 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period. Winds will remain out of the south/southeast. Winds will increase, occasionally gusting to to around 18-20 kts, starting late tomorrow morning with diurnal mixing. Winds will weaken during the evening as mixing diminishes. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...73 AVIATION...Collier