495
FXUS63 KEAX 291120
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Patchy dense fog this morning.

* Rain chances gradually build south and east this weekend.

* Cooler than normal conditions expected next week, especially late
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Diffuse flow across the region this morning with broad area of
surface high pressure across eastern Missouri into western Illinois.
Return flow on the west side of the ridge drawing saturated air near
the surface northward leading to fog expanding northward into west
central Missouri.  CAMs suggest the potential for fog to build as far
north as the KC metro before dissipating.  Will be monitoring
observations closely for the potential for a short fused dense fog
advisory, but expect conditions to improve towards 15Z as shallow
fog mixes out.

Although the low level moisture mixes out today, could see a few
cumulus develop especially east of highway 65 where low level
moisture is a bit more abundant.  Low level lapse rates are near 8
C/km, so can`t entirely rule out a passing afternoon shower up
towards Kirksville, but think the bulk of any instability showers
will be focused a bit farther east where the conditional instability
is slightly greater. Sided with high temperatures in the low to mid
80s, just slightly below seasonal norms for this time of year.

Trough across western South Dakota this morning is expected to
become slightly better organized today as it gradually builds south
and east this weekend.  This will lead to expanding rain chances
from the northwest to the southeast late Saturday into Sunday,
though limited instability and wind shear will keep these storms
relatively benign. Dry air in the near surface layer will eat away
at precipitation totals Saturday, but as low level moisture
transport increases expect showers and thunderstorms to become a bit
more numerous with more meaningful rainfall totals (0.25-0.50")
across eastern Kansas into western Missouri.  This system drops
southeast making it difficult for moisture and precipitation to make
it into central Missouri.

While an upper level ridge builds across the western US, the slow
moving trough keeps the ridge bottled to the west.  A strong cold
front to the north builds south into the region on Wednesday with
much cooler conditions to follow. High temperatures next Thursday
could struggle to warm beyond the 60s with 850 hpa temperatures
tumbling into the single digits.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Areas of dense fog mainly south of I-35 south of the KC metro
this morning. Expect fog to discipate towards 15Z. Could see
cumulus develop east of highway 65 today, while higher clouds
prevail farther west. Light south winds expected through the
period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ037-
     043>045-053-054.
KS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ057-060-
     105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT