537
FXUS66 KEKA 030930
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
130 AM PST Tue Mar 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Cloud cover near the coast Tuesday will be persistent
as a weak short wave pushes in, bringing rain late Tuesday through
early Thursday. High pressure just off the coast will dominate
the flow, bringing northerlies near Gale force by Wednesday
afternoon.


&&

.DISCUSSION...After a seasonal precursor of fair weather days to
come, Tuesday will prove to be mild as well with the exception of
lingering coastal clouds. A short wave perturbation near the surface
will push through late Tuesday, lasting into early Thursday. Most of
the accumulation will be in Del Norte 0.7 to 1.05 inches, while
Humboldt could range 0.3 to 0.6 inches. The higher yields in
Humboldt will be closer to the northern border with Del Norte. This
weak forcing does have a colder air mass with it but not very much
in the way of integrated water vapor. PWATS are high for Del
Norte/Crescent City early Wednesday which confirms what most
models are in agreement on, rain accumulation of 0.9 inches for
the mean. Light snow at elevations above 4000ft in the Trinity
horn and the Yolla Bollys is possible as the colder air and high
humidity encourages dendritic growth. It is likely 3 to 5 inches
at most for the Trinity horn, and maybe 2 to 3 inches for the
Yolla Bollys.

High pressure moves over the area Thursday into late week. This will
help clear skies and bring chilly overnight temperatures. Near
freezing temperatures are possible for most interior areas Thursday
and Friday nights. Coastal areas could see a drop into the 30s, but
coastal stratus could disrupt cooling.

Gusty north winds will also develop starting Wednesday afternoon. As
of now, the Mendocino Coast and Lake County are the most likely to
see the strongest winds, with NBM showing around a 30 to 50% chance
for peak gusts over 40 mph Wednesday and Thursday. Coastal Humboldt
and Del Norte have around a 50% chance to see gusts over 30 mph.
Locally higher gusts of over 50 mph are possible on the highest
ridges. Dry weather and breezy north winds are likely to continue at
least into early next week. JB /EYS


&&

.AVIATION...The satellite is showing widespread low clouds off the
coast this morning and in some of the river valleys. An approaching
frontal boundary is expected to change the wind flow and the clouds
will likely expand into much of the area this morning. This will
bring MVFR conditions to the TAF sites in the morning. Some
locations may briefly drop to IFR, but confidence is low on this. As
it goes through the day the clouds are expected to lift ahead of the
front and CIGS may become VFR. Tonight the is expected to bring some
rain to the area and possibly MVFR conditions late tonight at KACV
and KCEC. MKK


&&

.MARINE...Light winds are expected to gradually become south or
southwest Tuesday north of Cape Mendocino with light northwest to
west winds farther south. The southerly winds are expected to
continue to expand Tuesday night. Then early Wednesday when the
front moves through there is expected to be a fairly abrupt shift to
northwest. The winds are also expected to increase to around 15 to
20 kt by daylight on Wednesday or possibly earlier. These winds are
expected to gradually increase through Thursday night. Gale force
gusts are expected to start Thursday morning in the southern waters
and expand north into the northern waters Thursday afternoon.
Confidence is high that there will be gale force winds, although
some questions remain how far north they will make it and exactly
when they will start. These may continue into the weekend at least
in the southern waters. For now have held off on a gale watch, but
one will likely be need starting on Thursday for at least the
southern waters.

The seas are currently fairly low around 3 feet at 8 seconds and 2
feet at 12 seconds. These are expected to generally persist until
the wind driven waves start to pick up on Wednesday. These winds
driven waves are expected to quickly build to around 8 to 14 feet by
Thursday night and remain elevated and the dominant wave into the
weekend. MKK


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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