204
FXUS66 KEKA 230702
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1202 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry, cooler, and breezy conditions are expected today with frost
  or freezing temperatures possible tonight into Saturday morning.

* There is the potential for a pattern change to cooler and wetter
  weather early next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather arrives today and likely through the
weekend. Cool and breezier conditions are likely today with near to
below freezing temperatures possible tonight. Warm and dry
conditions are expected Saturday. The next chance for rain for
Humboldt and Del Norte is expected by late this weekend into early
next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The upper low that brought rainfall over northwestern
California over the last few days finally moves out of the area
today. A dry cold front brings in much drier and cooler air into the
area, and also breezy northwesterly winds. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are
possible along the coast this afternoon and evening. Breezy
northeast winds are possible in eastern Lake County and along the
exposed ridges.

Widespread valley fog and lingering high clouds from the upper low
will prevent a widespread frost early this morning. However,
clearing skies Friday and offshore flow building in the evening and
overnight will promote a much colder night across the area. Much of
the interior valleys could see low temperatures in the high 20s to
the mid 30s. Even the coast, especially a few miles inland, could
see temperatures in the mid to high 30s as well. Frost will be
possible for much of the interior valleys outside southern Mendocino
and Lake, where winds will keep temperatures slightly higher.

A relatively warm and dry day is expected Saturday across the area
with high pressure at least temporarily rebuilding. There is still a
lot of uncertainty on the pattern Sunday into early next week.
Around 25% of models still paint a troughing pattern with a weak
front arriving Sunday evening or night, bringing rain to Humboldt
and Del Norte. The remaining 75% of model solutions show high
pressure remaining at least into Monday. Interior high temperatures
Sunday may be in the high 60s or low 80s depending on which pattern
winds out and how much cloud cover we receive. The pattern remains
chaotic into early next week with a near 50/50 split between a
ridging or troughing pattern. In terms of potential precipitation,
on Sunday there is around a 20% chance of wetting rain (over 0.1")
in Del Norte and much lower chances elsewhere. On Monday, there is
around a 20 to 40% chance of wetting rain over Del Norte and
Humboldt Counties. Chances for wetting rain diminish mid next week,
but more wet weather is possible late next week, but model guidance
remains just as chaotic. Stay tuned! JB


&&

.AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...The upper low bringing rain over the area is
quickly moving out of the area. A dry cold front is expected to
gradually diminish cloud cover over the night. Still, lingering MVFR
ceilings are possible through the early morning. Areas of fog,
especially in the sheltered inland valleys, are possible from the
recent rains. Any lingering cloud cover or fog is expected to
diminish after sunrise. Breezy northwest winds are likely at the
coastal terminals and may near or exceed 30 kts, especially at
KCEC.


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds are quickly increasing behind a dry cold
frontal passage late Thursday evening. Gale force gusts are likely
in the outer waters into the evening today. The northern inner
waters are likely to see widespread gale force gusts early this
morning through late morning. While winds diminish below gales in
the inner waters, winds will remain breezy up to 30 kts through the
afternoon, with locally higher winds possible around Point St.
George. Steep seas of 9 to 13 ft are expected with these winds.
Winds and seas diminish Saturday into Sunday as a low pressure
system approaches north of the area. JB


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A much drier airmass arrives today into Saturday as
an upper low exits the region. More widespread breezy offshore winds
are expected over the higher terrain this evening and overnight.
Winds will be most widespread in the higher elevations of Lake
County and eastern Mendocino Counties. Overnight recoveries outside
the valley floors are likely to be poor given these offshore winds
with maximum RHs in the 20s and 30s. While elevated to locally
critical fire weather conditions are likely in the highest terrain,
recent rains may limit the impact of these conditions somewhat. JB


&&

.COASTAL FLOODING...High astronomical tides associated with the full
moon will bring chances for coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay
starting as early as Sunday with chances continuing through next
week. Astronomical tides at the North Spit tide gauge reaches 7.49
ft MLLW on 11:26 AM Sunday. With the tidal anomaly currently running
1.0 to 1.5 ft above forecast, minor coastal flooding is possible at
these levels. The highest astronomical tides, and highest chances
for coastal flooding, are forecast to be on Tuesday and Wednesday of
next week at 8.04 ft and 8.06 ft, respectively. JB


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday
     morning for CAZ108-110-111-114-116-117.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Friday for PZZ450.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ455.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ470.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Friday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png