989
FXUS66 KEKA 312155
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
255 PM PDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Light rain this evening.

* Briefly warmer and drier conditions into Monday.

* Another round of light rain around Tuesday.

* Stronger storms with heavy rain possible starting late next week
  and into mid November


&&

.SYNOPSIS...Light drizzle will pass the area this evening. Warmer
and drier conditions briefly build into Monday with another weak
front and light rain Tuesday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak, elongated cold front is currently crossing
the area. Compared to previous forecasts, the front as stalled
offshore. While reflectivity indicating rain has been falling over
the coastal waters all day, no rain has hit shore as of early
afternoon. By the time the front crosses shore this evening, light
rain will most likely fall on the low end of forecast with only a
20% chance of 0.1 inches close to shore. There is little evidence of
meaningful wind along the front. At the very least, the front will
pull in clouds and moisture that makes frost early Sunday morning
much less likely than previous nights. That said, if skies manage to
clear before midnight, a late frost advisory could be needed for
some areas.

Drier air will quickly build in Sunday with skies quickly clearing
all across the area. High pressure briefly building into Monday will
allow some interior highs to return near 70 for at least one
afternoon. There is high confidence that a modest cutoff low and
cold front will quickly cross the area around early Tuesday. Like
the current system, this low shows uncertainty regarding rainfall,
but generally only low potential. Most likely rainfall is currently
0.05 to 0.15 inches pretty evenly spread across the area. NBM shows
only a 25% chance of any location over 0.25 inches and a 40% chance
of little more than drizzle. Moderate south wind is expected along
this front with some gusts near 20 mph most likely.

Behind this system, there is much greater forecast uncertainty
beyond Tuesday. Most (70%) of ensemble members show weak high
pressure through the end of the week with seasonably cool and mostly
dry conditions. That said, about 30% of member continue to show
potential for another cold front, though essentially none show any
rainfall potential over 0.5 inches. Long range models suggest the
next chance for heavier rainfall is around November 10th with a 45%
chance of rainfall over 1.0 inch in that period. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...A weak approaching cold front has stream ceilings around
10 kft across the area today with otherwise VFR conditions. The
front will cross shore this evening, generating light rain and most
likely ceilings between 2 and 4 kft. Such ceilings and rain will
most likely generate sporadic MVFR conditions, but true IFR is
unlikely (less than 20% chance). If upper clouds clear quick enough,
some lower ceilings are possible early Sunday, but most models show
VFR conditions quickly prevailing as dry air pushes over the area.
/JHW

&

.MARINE...Weak north winds have persisted throughout the waters
today. Some moderate winds will build int he southern waters behind
a cold front Sunday, but only isolated gusts are expected to reach
20 kts with short period seas below 5 feet. Nearly calm winds return
by Monday. A strong cold front is expected to pass around Tuesday
with some moderate south winds ahead of the front switching
northerly behind the front mid week. With little short period seas
in the short term, the sea state will be controlled by a series of
swells. Most notably a mild 3 foot, mid period swell from the
southwest through mid week. Of larger note, a long period swell will
build Monday up to 7 feet at 18 seconds, brining a risk of sneaker
waves near shore. /JHW



&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...A very long period northwest swell arrives Sunday
afternoon and into Monday. This will bring an extreme threat for
sneaker waves as winds remain light and other wave groups remain
limited. This swell starts at around 2 ft at 21 secs and builds to
around 6 ft at 17 secs by Monday morning. A Beach Hazard Statement
will be needed for this sneaker wave threat.

Sneaker waves are relatively large, unexpected waves with long
period between large sets. Up to 30 minutes may pass between waves.
Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without warning,
sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Avoid
jetties, steep beaches, and stay much farther back from the ocean!


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement from Sunday evening through Monday
     evening for CAZ101-103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png