971
FXUS66 KEKA 232238
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
238 PM PST Sun Nov 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Midlevel clouds and moisture will continue to build
overnight with light drizzle near the coast Monday morning.
Conditions will clear again Tuesday with light rain later in the
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Winds turning onshore today have pulled
moist but cool are all across NW California as evidenced by building
midlevel clouds and robust interior valley fog.

Over the next 24 hours, a weak trough passing to the north may help
lift moisture, brining light drizzle along the coast and in some
near coastal valleys. No precipitation (or even much cloud cover)
will be seen in Mendocino and Lake Counties, with drizzle focused
further north. There is little chance of any wetting rain at this
point with even Crescent City having only about a 10% chance.
Clearer skies will bring another chance (50% or so) of frost for
interior Valleys early Tuesday, but valley fog will continue to make
any frost patchy at best.

Ensembles have come into better agreement concerning a potential
system later in the week and now generally show the bulk of the
system staying further north of the area and weaker than early runs
suggested. Most deterministic models now have only a week cold front
crossing the area around Thursday or Friday. While such a front
would likely pull moisture and light drizzle onshore, ensemble spread
now shows only a 20 to 40% chance of light wetting rain along the
North Coast with less than a 10% chance of 0.5 inches of rain
anywhere. A moist and drizzly pattern will likely continue into the
weekend, but potential for meaningful wind or precipitation remains
low. Long range outlooks from the CPC show warmer and drier than
normal conditions are most likely to persist through the first week
of December. /JHW


&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...A frontal boundary will usher
in cloud cover and light rain by 02-03z at KCEC. Light precip will
start at KACV a few hours later, likely around 08-09z. The model
blend has cloud cover filling in by the early evening. Ceilings are
~50% probable to drop below 3000ft at KACV before midnight and ~65%
likely at KCEC for a similar time frame. Ceilings could even drop
lower as some guidance suggest, which could bring IFR/LIFR
conditions into the early morning hours Monday at KACV. KUKI could
also see a brief spell of low ceilings and low visibility by 10-12z.
/EYS


&&

.MARINE...The passage of a frontal boundary has shifted winds to a
southerly bearing in the northern waters and northerly winds being
reported by buoy 46014 in the southern waters. As of 22z this still
holds true and is likely due to the stalled nature of the front.
Models show the front drifting slowly to the south and offshore
overnight into Monday morning  and eventually meandering inland,
resulting in northerly winds prevailing all area waters by 12-14z.
Northerlies will fill in at a moderate to fresh breeze sustained by
the late morning after a few hours of mild conditions. A small craft
advisory is likely due to cover the conditions in the outer waters
initially and possibly the inner waters by Monday evening. The
highest velocities will be south of Cape Mendocino, with 23-28kt
gusts. Wave heights around 10ft with the westerly swell easing in
period from 16-17 seconds to around 12-13 by Tuesday evening.

Tuesday and Wednesday are generally expected to see fairly light
winds. Wednesday afternoon these are expected to start becoming
southerly again as a frontal boundary approaches the area.  There
are still some discrepancies in the models on how strong these winds
are expected to get on Wednesday night and early Thursday, but
generally they are expected to peak around 20 kt in the northern
outer waters with lighter winds farther south. Friday stronger
northerly winds are expected to return and models are in fairly good
agreement on this. Over the weekend the models start to diverge with
some bringing in another weak weather system and others bringing
stronger northerlies.

The swell is expected to continue to diminish Tuesday and Wednesday
with swell heights only around 4 to 6 feet at 10 seconds. The wind
driven waves are expected to diminish Tuesday night setting up a
very calm day on the water for Wednesday. Total wave heights look to
be around 4 feet with a dominant period of 12 seconds. The next
swell is expected to build in Thursday morning. /MKK /EYS


&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...The long-period WNW swells continue to move
through the waters today. Periods are around 15 seconds with
intervals of longer period swell being observed at the buoys around
17-18 seconds, enhancing the threat of sneaker waves as they run up
the coastline. This type of set behavior contrasts with the
predictable prevailing wave action which can catch beachgoers off
guard through the rest of the day and into the early evening.
Breaking wave heights may reach 17-19 ft. Be cautious visiting
beaches and jetties and remember to never turn your back to the
ocean! /EYS /MKK


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PST this evening for
     CAZ101-103-104-109.

NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Monday for PZZ450-455-
     470-475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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