231
FXUS66 KEKA 150812
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1212 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...The break in wet weather ends this evening or Sunday
morning. Rain is possible in Lake, Mendocino, and Trinity this
evening and overnight. More widespread rain and gusty south winds
is possible Sunday into Monday. Frost is possible Monday night and
Tuesday night.



&&

.DISCUSSION...A much cooler and drier airmass has moved over the
area as high pressure briefly builds in. Interior valley fog is
possible again early this morning with ample moisture. Temperatures
will likely be a little cooler, with low temperatures in the mid 30s
to low 40s. Frost potential is low in the coldest valleys, as ample
moisture and valley fog are likely to keep temperatures moderated.

A mostly dry day is expected until the evening today, when a cutoff
low in southern California moves northward. Light rain is possible
on the western edge of this low this evening and overnight. The
highest chances are in Lake, eastern Mendocino, and Trinity
Counties, but some CAMs are showing rain into eastern Humboldt
county. Rain amounts are fairly meager, with generally less than a
1/4 inch forecast.

A stronger frontal system arrives Sunday morning and afternoon,
bringing further rain to the area. Periods of moderate to heavy rain
are possible Sunday afternoon and into Sunday night, especially
along the coastal areas. Generally 0.75-1.50 inches of rain are
forecast, with locally higher amounts possible in the King Range and
the Mendocino coast. The low is forecast to follow the coast and
move southward, bringing slightly more precipitation to Mendocino
and Lake counties. Gusty south winds are likely with gusts of 30-40
mph possible Sunday night into Monday over the Mendocino coast and
channeled terrain in Lake County. Locally higher winds are possible
on exposed ridges and coastal headlands. Winds shift northerly as
the low moves south and may be breezy (20-30 mph gusts) through
Monday afternoon. Snow levels are likely to be high at 4500-5000
ft, but a dusting to an inch of snow is possible at Scott Mountain
Pass on Highway 3. Lingering showers may continue through the day
Monday before tapering off Monday night.

The upper-level trough behind the front will bring a much colder and
drier airmass. Widespread frost and possibly freezing temperatures
are possible Monday night and Tuesday night. NBM shows high chances
for temperatures below 36 in Trinity, eastern Mendocino, and Lake
counties. There are near or above 50% chances for freezing
temperatures in the coldest valleys of Trinity and Mendocino. High
temperatures will also be cooler, with even the warmest valleys
struggling to reach 60.

Most ensemble members are in agreement in an additional system
arriving late next week, returning wet weather to the area.
Confidence on impacts is low at this point, but rain, gusty winds,
and mountain snow are all possible. Stay tuned. JB


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at coastal
terminals (KCEC and KACV) on Sat. Fog and low clouds in the
interior valleys will most likely dissipate between 18Z and 20Z
Sat. Conditions will most likely deteriorate at coastal aerodromes
after 03Z to 06Z Sun as an upstream trough induces of push of
shallow moisture onto the coast. Winds are forecast to remain
light under 10kt or calm.


&&

.MARINE...Northerly winds will increase in the lee of Cape Mendo
with localized gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon and evening. Steep
waves up to 6 ft are expected to build in lee of Cape Mendo by this
evening. A small craft advisory has been hoisted for the southern
outer waters. These conditions may briefly extend into the inner
waters during the evening Sat. Otherwise calmer conditions with
lighter northerlies expected north of Cape Mendo. A mix of small
wave groups will also continue to subside today. Next frontal system
is forecast to rapidly approach on Sunday. A brief spat of gale
force gusts to 40 kt remains possible (25% chance by 4 PM Sun).
There continues to be considerable variability on the rate of
progression and strength of N-NW winds behind the front. Some models
indicate NW gale gusts on the backside of the front while others
indicate the low stalling near the coast with generally sub-gale
winds. General consensus is for northerlies to increase Sun night
into Mon. To what extent and to what magnitude remains uncertain. A
large mid to short period W-NW swell will also arrive by Mon and
seas will once again become hazardous. Seas could reach 18-20 ft by
early Monday, especially across the southern outer waters. Another
deep low will rapidly develop and approach on Wed and the risk for
southerly gales with large steep waves will once again increase and
may persist into Thu.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PST
     Sunday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png