754
FXUS66 KEKA 282141
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
241 PM PDT Fri Aug 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Interior areas continue to experience near or slightly below
  normal temperatures through this weekend.

* Coastal areas continue to see overnight stratus with occasional
  afternoon clearing.

* A troughing pattern continues next week to bring more below
  average temperatures and chances for precipitation.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...Generally mild, seasonable weather continues across
the area with slightly below normal interior temperatures and
coastal areas seeing overnight stratus. A troughing pattern
continues next week, brining below average temperatures and
chances for precipitation.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Midday radar showed shower activity spreading
northeast and into over portions of Lake County, though
precipitation was yet to be recorded at the surface. The tropical
moisture quickly departed going into the later afternoon hours.

Interior temperatures will be near or below average from the
troughing. The marine layer has also undergone deepening, allowing
for further intrusion inland. The low inversion strengthened Friday
with temperatures warming to the mid 70s to 500-600 ft. This cap and
light westerly flow held the coastal stratus in a little longer
Friday. There does seem to be some better shots of clearing through
the weekend for the coast.

A passing trough will increase northwesterly to westerly winds
Saturday. The interior ridges and channeled terrain have a high
chance from NBM of seeing gusts over 20 mph. There are more isolated
but still sold chances for gusts over 25 mph, and locally up to 30
mph for the described locations. This will create some fire weather
concerns, though the environment will be trending more moist in
time.

A cutoff low is modeled to form and sweep into Northern CA Tuesday.
very little precipitation is forecast from this system. Models have
been struggling will the latitudinal placement of this low along the
California coast, but there may be instability with it. NBM is
currently holding some 10-15 percent chance of thunderstorms
Tuesday, but much could change with this if the low tracks farther
south.

This does seem to mark the beginnings of a pattern change towards
more active troughing and additional chances for rainfall, and
perhaps more unstable type systems. In fact, dusting off the
seasonally dormant cluster analysis tool, there is strong support
for a stretch of troughing influence through at least next week. NBM
probabilities drop off pretty quickly for rainfall totals over 0.3
inches for the period Wednesday through Friday however. The main
concern would be how convective the various systems end up being.


&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFs.Areas of coastal stratus will undergo some
scattering through the afternoon Wednesday, but will generally
persist along the coast and coastal terminals. Winds will be light,
with some occasional afternoon northwesterly gusts. The stratus will
fill in quickly going into the evening. IFR to LIFR conditions are
forecast to return overnight. Troughing in the region should limit
the duration of any fog that develops through Saturday morning, and
may hold more consistently to IFR ceilings than LIFR if further
deepening occurs.


&&

.MARINE...Apart from areas around and south of Point St George,
winds in the inner waters north of Cape Mendocino remain generally
light. Otherwise, the northerly winds will strengthen across the
waters through the weekend. Gust up to 35 kts can be expected around
Cape Mendocino through the afternoons and evenings. An isolated area
of gale strength gusts will expand farther into the southern outer
waters late Saturday and into Sunday. Steep wind driven seas of 7 to
10 ft will develop as a result. The northerlies will begin to
quickly subside Monday as a troughing pattern returns. Seas and
winds look to be quite low for much of next week from the
troughing pattern. A stronger front with a round of increased
southerly winds will be possible around mid next week however. A
long period small southerly swell around 3 feet will also enter
the waters Saturday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Minimum relative humidity will begin trending
higher Saturday. The marine layer will remain deeper, allowing for
for further intrusion inland. A passing trough will increase
northwesterly to westerly winds Saturday, mainly through the
afternoon hours. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph and locally up to 30 mph
are likely for the interior ridges and channeled terrain. Relative
humidity values will continue trending higher through next week
with a continued troughing pattern, bringing some chances for
rainfall and below normal daytime highs. NBM is bringing some
slight chances (10-15 percent) of thunderstorms with the Tuesday
system, but models are very inconstant with available instability
and where the trough tracks in.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ455.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Sunday
     for PZZ470.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png