078
FXUS66 KEKA 140820
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
1220 AM PST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Lingering showers continue into the afternoon, but
gradually are tapering off. Dry weather is expected Friday
afternoon through Saturday. Another system returns rain Saturday
into Sunday. Near freezing low temperatures are possible mid next
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...The area of low pressure off the coast has moved to
the south and winds and rain showers have ramped down. A few light
showers may continue through the night, with the highest chances in
Trinity, eastern Mendocino, and Lake Counties. Interior valleys may
see fog form tonight with ample moisture. Wrap-around moisture could
support an isolated rain shower or two this afternoon, with the
highest chances in Lake and eastern Mendocino counties. Otherwise, a
brief drying trend is likely for most of the area. A chilly night is
possible Friday night into Saturday morning, with temperatures
dropping into the 30s to low 40s. NBM shows high chances for
temperatures less than 36 degrees in Trinity County and around
Covelo. However, ample moisture from recent rains may support valley
fog and could keep temperatures high enough to prevent frost.

Saturday evening into Sunday, the low pressure system moves onshore
in southern California and moves northeast. These will mainly be
light to moderate rain showers with the highest chances in Lake
and southern Mendocino counties. If you`re outside these areas and
are feeling left out, don`t worry! Another frontal system is
likely to arrive from the northwest Sunday, returning rain across
the area. Confidence is low on how much rain we will receive,
mostly due to uncertainties with how these two low pressures will
interact. The NBM 25th percentile (the low end) shows a broad
0.25-0.50 inch across the area, while the NBM 75th percentile
(high end) shows 1.00-1.25 inches across the area. Breezy south
winds are likely, with gusts of 20-30 mph possible along the
Humboldt and Del Norte coasts. Locally higher winds are possible
on ridges and coastal headlands.

The upper-level trough behind the front will bring a much colder
airmass. Widespread frost and possibly freezing temperatures are
possible Monday night and Tuesday night. NBM shows moderate to high
probabilities for temperatures below 36 in Trinity, eastern
Mendocino, interior Humboldt, and Lake county. There are over 50%
probabilities for freezing temperatures in the coldest valleys of
Trinity and Mendocino. High temperatures will also be cooler, with
even the warmest valleys struggling to reach 60.

Ensembles are fairly confident in an additional storm arriving late
next week. Deterministic models show this taking a very similar path
to the one over the last few days, however there is significant
variability in ensembles this far out. JB


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected to prevail at coastal
forecast terminals (KACV and KCEC) through the period. MVFR cigs
and ocnl MVFR vsby are forecast for KUKI through 12Z-14Z Fri.
Cloud cover should counteract the longwave cooling and winds aloft
will create sufficient mixing to mitigate the risk for fog in the
interior valleys. If winds go calm and skies clear briefly around
KUKI, LIFR in fog will be possible. SE winds aloft from 30-40kt
above 1500 to 2000 AGL will continue to pose a risk for low level
wind shear or severe turbulence for coastal aerodromes,
particularly at KACV and KCEC til 14Z-18Z Fri.


&&

.MARINE...Very steep combined seas continue Thu night due to large
west swell and steeper shorter period waves. Models continue to
diverge on a track and rate of decay of an offshore low centered
over the outer waters on Fri. Consensus is for the low to slowly
fill on Fri and either meanders southward and dissipate through the
day or slowly burrow eastward toward the North Coast and filling.
Either way winds should ease up in comparison to the last day or
two. By Friday evening, winds and steep seas are forecast to ease up
and subside into Sat morning. Calmer conditions expected Fri night
and Sat, though northerly winds ramp up a bit in the lee of Cape
Mendo with localized gusts to 30 kt by afternoon. Next frontal
system rapidly approaches on Sunday and should blow through quickly
with perhaps a brief spat of gale force gusts to 40 kt. Considerable
variability on the rate of progression and strength of the N-NW
behind the front. Some models indicate NW gale gusts following
quickly behind the boundary while others indicate the low stalling
offshore with light and squirrelly winds. By Tue, consensus is for
northerlies to return before another potentially deep and power low
approaches Wed and Thu. This next storm could stay well offshore
leaving the waters in a relatively light wind field or it could come
barreling through Wed into Thu bringing another chance for gales.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for
     PZZ450.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until 3 AM PST early this morning
     for PZZ455-475.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PST early this morning for PZZ470.

&&

$$

NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.

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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png