Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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330
FXUS66 KEKA 211226
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
426 AM PST Thu Nov 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Winds will continue to weaken across the higher
terrain and become much lighter for the rest of the week. Mostly
clear skies will continue through Friday, with freezing overnight
low temperatures in many of the interior valleys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Short Term (through Saturday): Winds have began to ease overnight
across Northwest California as the pressure gradient relaxes.
Overall, humidities have been a bit higher than forecast, and with
winds continuing to decrease, went ahead and canceled the Red
Flag Warning. Winds will continue to decrease this morning and
will become mostly light through Saturday. A cool and dry airmass
will persist across the area through most of the weekend.
Seasonable afternoon temperatures and mostly clear skies will
continue through Friday across most of the region. Some chilly
overnight lows will persist across interior valleys and along
portions of the coast. Patchy frost will be possible for pockets
of the coastal zones and this will continue to be monitored in
case an advisory may be needed.

Long Term (Sunday through Thursday): The overall weather pattern
across the Western United States looks like it will be undergoing
some changes heading into next week, as the longwave trough that
has been over the central and eastern part of the country
retrogrades. One shortwave projected to pass by on Sunday night
into Monday should be largely deflected to our north. The National
Blend keeps some slight or low chances of light precipitation
around northern Humboldt and Del Norte, but any rainfall should be
spotty and light, with odds much better to the north of the
Oregon border. However, moving into the middle of next week, most
of the model guidance has been consistently advertising a
stronger, wetter, colder system for our area. As opposed to the
weak fronts of the past couple of months, this system may actually
bring a widespread inch or two of rainfall. Given the pattern, it
will likely be a colder and progressive storm, so rainfall
amounts should not be terribly excessive, and the mountains may
see the first snowfall of the season in time for Thanksgiving.
Beware of any details though, since we still do not have a great
amount of trust in the model guidance 7 days in advance. /AAD

&&

.AVIATION...High pressure and offshore flow is bringing VFR
conditions and fairly light winds across the area this morning.
This is expected through tonight at the TAF sites, however there
could be a return of stratus to the Mendocino coast late night.
MKK

&&

.MARINE...The northerly winds and steep northerly waves have
diminished this morning and will continue to trend downward this
afternoon. Waves are currently around 8 to 10 feet at 11 to 12
seconds.

This afternoon through Friday winds will remain light and may
become southerly for a short period of time. High pressure builds
into the area for the weekend and northerly winds return.
Initially these winds will be fairly light, but will gradually
increase Sunday and into Monday. Tuesday through late in the week
there is the potential for some strong winds as a strong system
moves through, however there is a lot of uncertainty with it at
this point and. This leads to a wide potential of solutions.

Tonight into Thursday morning a moderate swell starts to move into
the waters. Initially it looks to be around 2 foot at 16 seconds
very early Thursday morning and will build to around 4 feet at 15
seconds THursday afternoon. There is also a 6 to 8 second swell
lingering in the waters. This should help to mitigate the sneaker
wave threat if they come in as expected.

The next swell is expected to move into the area on Thursday
evening. The forerunners will be around 1 to 2 feet at 22 seconds
quickly building to around 6 feet at 19 seconds Friday morning.
This will continue to build to around 9 feet at 17 seconds by late
Friday afternoon. There will be a sneaker wave threat through the
day, but it may be mitigated by the lingering swell that is around
13 seconds. Seas will remain elevated into early next week with
another swell building into the waters on Sunday. MKK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Winds have decreased overnight a little more than
forecast, so went ahead and cancelled the Red Flag Warning. That
being said, dry conditions will prevail through most of the
weekend. Attention then turns to a mostly dry cold front that will
transverse the area late on Sunday and into Monday. Breezy north
winds and mostly dry conditions will accompany this passing front.
Otherwise, a system will impact the area around the middle of
next week and bring potentially season ending widespread rain.

&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...None.
&&

$$

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