Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 282134

National Weather Service Eureka CA
234 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...Periods of mostly light precipitation are expected
across the region through early next week. Thereafter, warm and
dry weather will be likely by the middle of the week.


.DISCUSSION...An upper-level disturbance will continue to make its
way toward the California coast this afternoon, which will help
increase shower activity over Northwest California. Showers are
expected to mostly be on the lighter side, though some moderate
showers will be possible as the upper-level disturbance nears and
moves over the region tonight and early Sunday morning. The brunt of
the precipitation is forecast to fall between late tonight through
around midday on Sunday. Snow levels will be above 4,300 feet
through early next week and this will help to limit the need for
any winter headlines. A brief period of dry weather is expected
late on Sunday across much of the area as the disturbance exits
the region, though interior mountains will continue to see some
shower activity given the moist onshore flow. Another disturbance
is forecast to impact the area beginning early on Monday. Showers
will taper off by midday on Tuesday as high pressure builds into
the area. Warm and dry weather will then take hold for the
remainder of the week and into the weekend. Coastal areas are
forecast to mostly be in the upper 50s to low 60s and interior
valleys will climb into the low to upper 70s.


.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will continue through much of
tonight at the coastal terminals, with some MVFR ceilings at times
across the interior. Some occasional MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled
out at ACV or CEC though, especially toward Sunday morning. Rain
will continue to be light and spotty until a weak front moves
through Sunday morning, bringing a round of some heavier showers,
and brief/local MVFR visibilities. Mountain obscuration will tend to
increase inland as well into Sunday. Thinking we will mostly avoid
IFR conditions aside from any brief/local heavier shower Sunday
morning. Conditions may improve for awhile late Sunday. Another more
potent front will bring steadier rain and some locally gusty
southerly winds later Sunday night and Monday morning, especially
for areas north of Mendocino County. /AAD


.MARINE...Spotty light rain is preceding a weak front, which will
cross the waters early Sunday morning, accompanied by a brief round
of some heavier showers. Ahead of the front, southerly winds will
continue to increase a bit and expand across our southern waters
through midnight. Locally stronger winds will be found adjacent Pt
St George and Cape Mendocino, with some gusts 20-25 kt possible late
this evening through midnight, with lighter winds to the south.
Brief SCA conditions might occur in those aforementioned spots, but
do not think a Small Craft Advisory will be necessary. Winds will
shift to more westerly on Sunday, but will be generally on the light
side. Another somewhat more potent front will bring another round of
southerly winds Sunday Night into Monday morning, particularly near
and offshore of Pt St George. Have hoisted a Small Craft Advisory
for the northern outer waters. This will be for low-end advisory
conditions, with some gusts 25 to 30 kt. Coverage of those
conditions didn`t look widespread enough to include the entire
northern inner waters in the advisory, but the next forecast shift
or two will need to consider that. Easing westerly winds will follow
by Monday afternoon. We will then transition back to a northerly
wind regime on Tuesday, and continuing northerly through the end of
the week.

Seas stay 3 to 5 feet Sunday, comprised mainly of a mix of the
locally generated waves from the periods of southerly winds, along
with some decaying generally westerly swell. Some locally rougher 6
to 7 ft seas may be found Sunday night into Monday in and near the
Small Craft Advisory. Seas will rise Monday night into Tuesday, with
combined sea heights perhaps reaching 10 ft Tuesday into Tuesday
night. /AAD


     PM Sunday to 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470.



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