457
AXPZ20 KNHC 111606
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Oct 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Raymond is centered near 21.5N 109.2W, or about 90
nm south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California at
11/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35
kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are to 12 ft just north of
the center. First visible satellite imagery shows that the
cyclone continues to quickly weaken as it is under moderate
easterly shear. Its remaining convection, consisting of moderate
to strong intensity, is seen well to the northeast of the system
from 23N to 26N between 108W and 109W. Raymond is forecast to
turn toward the north later today, with this motion then
continuing through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of
Raymond is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja
California Sur later today. Additional weakening is forecast
during the next day or so, with Raymond expected to weaken into
a post-tropical remnant low on Sun. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6
inches with local amounts of 8 or more inches are expected across
northwestern Sinaloa, Sonora and northern Chihuahua. This
rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas
of higher terrain. Swells generated by Raymond are affecting the
coasts of southwest and west-central Mexico, and southern Baja
California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from
your local weather office. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Tropical Storm Raymond NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public
Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 93W from 05N to 17N moving westward at
10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 08N to 15N west of the wave to 98W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia, westward
to across the northern part of Costa Rica, and continues westward
to 13N96W to 11N110W to 09N120W and to 09N129W, where it transitions
to the ITCZ to 09N130W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is seen from 07N to 09N between 98W-105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Raymond.

Moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft encompass waters
W of Baja California. Mainly gentle winds and slight seas
dominate the Gulf of California, although winds and seas are
increasing near the entrance to the Gulf where the impacts from
Raymond are commencing. South of 18N, mainly gentle W winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell prevail. The exception is near
and south of the the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending to about 13N,
where fresh to locally strong N winds are pulsing early this
morning.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Raymond is near 21.5N 109.2W,
or about 90 nm south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja
California at 8 AM PDT, and is moving north-northwest at 13 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Raymond will move inland and
weaken to a tropical depression near 23.6N 110.3W this evening,
become post- tropical and move to 26.8N 111.1W Sun morning, and
dissipate Sun evening. Fresh to locally strong northwest winds
and moderate to locally rough seas will impact waters offshore
Baja California through this weekend due to the pressure
gradient between high pressure building southward offshore
California and Raymond. Otherwise, fresh to strong gap winds in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish to Sun afternoon. A
weakening cold front will move southward over the waters west of
Baja California, followed by moderate to fresh northerly winds
and seas to around 8 or 9 ft in NW swell.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Deep atmospheric moisture continues to result in scattered
showers and thunderstorms over most of the Central American
offshore waters. Moderate to fresh southwest winds are
south of the monsoon trough, and mostly gentle west to northwest
winds are north of the monsoon trough. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over
these waters.

For the forecast, generally moderate to fresh southwest winds
and seas will remain south of the monsoon through the forecast
period. A very moist and unstable atmospheric environment will be
favorable for showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop
over the regional waters well into next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The 12 UTC surface analysis shows broad ridging north of about
16N and west of 125W while broad low pressure is east of 125W.
The associated pressure gradient between the ridge and
relatively lower pressures in the low-latitide tropical region
is allowing for moderate to fresh north to northeast winds
north of 09N and west of 120W. Latest altimeter satellite data
passes show seas of 5 to 7 ft over this part of the area. Gentle
to moderate southerly winds are south of the monsoon trough along
with similar seas of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will build across the area
into the early portion of the upcoming week.

$$
Aguirre