058
AXPZ20 KNHC 271538
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Sep 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 21.3N 113.9W at 27/1500 UTC,
moving north-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with
gusts to 135 kt. Satellite imagery indicates a faint eye
feature, with numerous strong convection within 90 nm of center.
Peak seas are near 39 ft (12 M). A turn toward the north is
expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on
Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the
west coast of Baja California Sur on Mon, move across the
peninsula Mon night and then approach northwestern mainland
Mexico by early Tue. Additional weakening is expected during the
next few days, but Polo is forecast to remain a hurricane when it
approaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to
produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of
10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall
may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially
in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast
rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf

Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur
during the next couple of days. These swells will spread northward
along the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through the
remainder of the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 22.6N 123.4W at 27/1500
UTC, moving north at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60
kt. Peak seas are around 27 ft (7.5 M). Odalys`s overall
convective structure has degenerated into an irregularly shaped
central dense overcast. Numerous moderate convection is within 90
nm of the center. Odalys will maintain its present motion
through this evening, followed by a sharp turn to the south-
southeast by early next week. Rapid weakening is forecast over
the next few days, and Odalys is anticipated to become a post-
tropical cyclone by Mon.

Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is centered near 12.7N 98.6W at
27/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30
kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft (3.5 M).
Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center.
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E is forecast to move parallel to
and offshore of the coast of Mexico. Some gradual strengthening
is forecast during the next few days, and the depression could
become a tropical storm by tonight.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
  NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov
  for more details on Polo, Odalys and Tropical Depression
  Eighteen-E.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop around a broad area of
low pressure, currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in
the next several days. The system is expected to move generally
northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation
within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next week.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from central Panama to 08N82W to
06N90W and to 12N96W. It continues to the west of Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E at 12N101W to 14N107W. It resumes south of
Odalys at 17N124W and to 11N130W to low pressure near 11N140W
1008 mb. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 07N
to 14N west of 136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 08N to 11N between 94W-97W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo, Tropical Storm Odalys, and on Tropical
Depression Eighteen-E.

The impacts from these features encompass much of the basin.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are
offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds
elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle
winds are in the Gulf of California per latest scatterometer
data. Moderate seas remain over the offshore waters and the
southern Gulf of California, with slight
seas in the central and northern gulf sections.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 21.6N
114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to
25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N 111.6W late Mon night,
weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and
move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W
late Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Tropical Storm Odalys
will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon,
become post- tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning,
to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near
21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue
afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and dissipate early
on Thu. Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will move to near 12.7N
99.6W this afternoon, strengthen to a tropical storm near 13.2N
100.8W late tonight with maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45
kt, move to near 13.8N 102.2W Mon afternoon, to near 14.7N 104.1W
late Mon night, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.7N 105.9W Tue
afternoon with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, and
move to near 16.9N 107.7W late Tue night Wed morning. Eighteen-E
will move to near 18.7N 109.6W late Wed night with maximum
sustained winds 80 kt gusts 100 kt. The forecast waters will be
impacted by very hazardous conditions, for the most part, during
the forecast period.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala
Tropical Depression Eighteen-E located about 285 nm south of
Acapulco, Mexico continues to organize. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in
southwest swell over the western part of the Guatemala offshore
waters. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin.
Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near
the Gulf of Panama.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Eighteen-E will continue to
pull away from the offshore waters going into the early part of the
week allowing for fresh southeast to south winds over the western
portion of the Guatemala offshore waters to diminish, however, west
to northwest swell will linger over those waters through the next
few days. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail
across the offshore waters well into the upcoming week along with
mostly moderate seas.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Major Hurricane Polo, Tropical Storm Odalys, and on low pressure
developing in the far western portion of the waters.

Away from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure
over the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh
northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about
30N120W to 20N131W to 11N140W. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft
in long-period east to southeast swell.  Mostly gentle to moderate
winds are elsewhere, although a swath of fresh southwest winds have
developed from 05N to 10N and west of about 120W. The tropical
cyclones have generated a broad area of rough seas from 08N to 29N
and east of about 137W.

For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 21.6N
114.0W this afternoon, to near 23.4N 114.0W late tonight, to
25.1N 113.1W Mon afternoon, to near 26.8N 111.6W late Mon night,
weaken to a tropical storm near 28.9N 109.3W Tue afternoon, and
move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.3N 106.8W
late Tue night and dissipate early Thu. Tropical Storm Odalys
will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.4N 123.2W this afternoon,
become post- tropical and move to near 22.6N 122.9W Mon morning,
to near 22.0N 122.6W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near
21.0N 122.4W Tue morning, move to near 19.9N 122.2W Tue
afternoon, to near 19.1N 122.1W Wed morning and dissipate early
on Thu.

Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop around a broad area of
low pressure, currently located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form in
the next several days. The system is expected to move generally
northeastward, and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian
Islands.

$$
Konarik