780
AXPZ20 KNHC 300340
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 17.0N 120.2W at 30/0300
UTC, moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with
gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 31 ft (9.5 m). Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of
the center. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest, followed
by a more westerly motion over the next day or two. Karina is
just below hurricane intensity. Strengthening is forecast during
the next several days. Karina is forecast to become a hurricane
within the next day and could become a major hurricane early next
week. Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions
of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California
Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 13.2N 138.1W at 30/0300
UTC, moving west at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1001 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55
kt. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft (4 m). Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is within 150 nm W
semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest. A
westward motion should resume during the next few hours and
continue for the next several days. Gradual strengthening is
expected during the weekend, and Lowell could become a hurricane
by Monday or Monday night.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is
located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is
expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15
mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely
to form in the next several of days. This system has a medium
chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high
chance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 82W north of 05N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from
05N to 07N between 80W and 87W.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 103W from 04N to 15N,
moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 10N to 13N between 100W AND
105W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N85W to 08N90W to
12N108W. No significant convection is observed other than what
has already been described near Karina, Lowell and the tropical
waves.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
Tropical Storm Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the
potential of tropical cyclone formation.

While the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican
offshore waters, strong to near gale force winds and rough to
very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are
reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated
with the cyclone`s circulation are also moving across the
islands. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to blow across
Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally
moderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of
California. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina is west of the Mexican
offshore waters near 17.0N 120.2W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving
west- northwest at 14 kt. Strong SE winds are impacting the
Revillagigedo Islands through Sun, on the far eastern periphery
of T.S. Karina. These winds will diminish through late Sun as the
storm moves farther west. Associated rough to very rough seas
will gradually subside from east to west across the islands
through Sun night and early Mon. Fresh to strong northerly gap
winds and occasional rough seas will continue to pulse in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun. Fresh to strong southerly
winds are expected across the northern and central Gulf of
California through Sun night into Mon. Looking ahead, an area of
disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located
well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected
to move west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.
Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development
of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in
the next several of days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo
and downwind to near 10N92W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate
winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to
pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into
early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated
moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer
offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds
may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early
next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with
mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the
monsoon trough.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for more information
about Tropical Storm Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, and an area
of disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone
formation.

A trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone
Iselle, extends from 26N135W to 22N136W. Fresh to strong NE
winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end
of the trough axis and mainly N of 25N W of 130W. Elsewhere,
mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the
open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from
the two tropical storms and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas
generated by Karina cover the waters from 09N to 20N between
111W and 122W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of
the open waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 121.6W Sun
morning, move to 17.6N 123.3W Sun evening, 17.8N 125.0W Mon
morning, 18.0N 126.5W Mon evening, 18.7N 128.3W Tue morning, and
19.3N 130.0W Tue evening. Karina will change little in intensity
as it moves to 20.7N 132.6W late Wed. Tropical Storm Lowell will
move to 13.1N 139.9W Sun morning, 13.0N 142.1W Sun evening,
13.0N 144.0W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.1N
145.9W Mon evening, 13.2N 147.9W Tue morning, and 13.4N 149.7W
Tue evening. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves
to 13.6N 152.2W late Wed. Seas 8 ft or greater generated by
Karina will cover a large area by Sun afternoon, particularly
from 08N to 28N between 110W and 130W.

$$
Christensen