963
AXPZ20 KNHC 150258
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Jul 15 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Five-E is centered near 14.7N 110.5W at
15/0300 UTC, moving west at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
occurring from 11N to 18N between 104W and 113W. The depression
is moving toward the west and this motion is expected to
continue through Wed. A turn toward the northwest at a slower
forward speed is expected by late Thu. Steady strengthening is
forecast during the next few days, and the cyclone is forecast to
become a hurricane by Thu night. Please read the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Five-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 91W, north of 03N to across portions of
Guatemala and far SE Mexico in the Yucatan Peninsula, moving
slowly westward at 5 kt. Any nearby convection is described in
the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section.

The tropical wave that was along 108W is no longer analyzed due
to developing Tropcial Depression Five-E.

A tropical wave is along 137W from 02N to 20N, moving westward at
15 to 20 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure area is noted along the wave
at 13N. Any nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/MONSOON
TROUGH section.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N85W to 08N87W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N87W to 06N91W, then resumes west of a
tropical wave from 04N93W to 11N107W, then resumes SW of Tropcial
Depression Five-E from 11N111W to 07N120W to 13N133W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm SSE of
the ITCZ between 108W and 118W, and within 360 nm either side of
the axis between 118W and 138W. Similar convection is noted
within 60 nm of the coast of western El Salvador and Guatemala
near the northern extend of a tropical wave. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 94W and 98W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Depression Five-E centered 495 nautical miles south of
the southern tip of Baja California.

Fresh to strong winds extend across portions of the waters south
of 20N and west 105W to the north and east of T.D. Five-E this
afternoon, and impacting the offshore waters of Colima and
Jalisco, and approaching Socorro Island. Seas across this area
are 6 to 13 ft. Elsewhere to the east, fresh to strong gap winds
are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. A
broad ridge prevails elsewhere offshore of Baja Baja California
and to the NW of T.D. Five-E. This pattern is supporting gentle
to moderate NW to N winds and 4 to 5 ft seas across the Baja
waters, and light breezes with 1 to 3 ft seas inside the Gulf of
California.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Five-E will strengthen to
a tropical storm near 14.9N 112.4W Wed morning, move to 15.0N
114.9W Wed evening, 15.3N 117.0W Thu morning, strengthen to a
hurricane near 15.8N 118.8W Thu evening, 16.7N 120.3W Fri
morning, and 17.8N 121.8W Fri evening. Five-E will change little
in intensity as it moves to 20.4N 124.5W late Sat. Otherwise, a
broad ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast
waters of Baja California through Thu, allowing for gentle to
moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in
mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds will
prevail through tonight, increasing to moderate to locally fresh
in the central and northern portions midweek. Fresh to strong
northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the
week and into the upcoming weekend, strongest during the late
night and early morning hours, with locally rough seas at times.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later
this week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the weekend while it
moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo
region to near 90W, with moderate to fresh easterly winds
elsewhere north of 10N to offshore northern Nicaragua. Seas are 5
to 8 ft downstream of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or weaker
across the remainder of the waters, locally fresh near the Azuero
Peninsula. Moderate seas dominate the waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across
the Papagayo region, peaking at night through at least Sun night,
producing moderate to locally rough seas. Moderate to fresh
northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama tonight
and again Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the
Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Depression Five-E centered 495 nautical miles south of
the southern tip of Baja California.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are near a tropical wave along
137W, from 06N to 26N between 130W and 140W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft
in this area. Similar winds are found from roughly 15N to 22N
between 114W and 130W, as well as south of 09N between 108W and
122W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the
waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mainly southerly swell south of 09N
between 102W and 120W, and 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell across the
reminder of the waters.

For the forecast, Tropical Depression Five-E will strengthen to
a tropical storm near 14.9N 112.4W Wed morning, move to 15.0N
114.9W Wed evening, 15.3N 117.0W Thu morning, strengthen to a
hurricane near 15.8N 118.8W Thu evening, 16.7N 120.3W Fri
morning, and 17.8N 121.8W Fri evening. Five-E will change little
in intensity as it moves to 20.4N 124.5W late Sat. Winds and
seas associated with the tropical wave near 137W will persist
through Wed night as the wave shifts west of 140W by Thu. NE
winds will freshen with seas 5 to 7 ft thereafter north of 15N
and west of 125W between broad low pressure along the monsoon
trough riding farther north.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later
this week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the weekend while it
moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico.

$$
Lewitsky