073
AXPZ20 KNHC 170307
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0305 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1011 mb low pres near
09N102W to 09N122W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N122W to beyond
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 12N
and east of 107W. Similar convection is found from 07N to 11N and
between 127W and 135W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery depict a weak 1014 mb low pressure SW of
Guadalupe Islands and a cold front that extends to the north-
central eastern Pacific waters. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate to
locally fresh NW-N winds in the northern and southern portions of
the Gulf of California, extending to the waters off Cabo
Corrientes and off Baja California Sur. Slight to moderate seas
are found in the Gulf of California and off Cabo Corrientes,
while seas of 6-8 ft are noted off Baja California Sur.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are
evident across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will move across
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California tonight and Mon
with little change in winds and seas while dissipating. Another
cold front will reach the same area Mon night into Tue followed
by fresh NW winds and rough seas in long period NW swell. Winds
are forecast to increase again to fresh to strong speeds across
the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Mon night into
Tue, with seas building to 5 or 6 ft. The cold front will move
SE reaching Punta Eugenia by Tue night while gradually weakening.
The front is forecast to dissipate between Punta Eugenia and
Cabo San Lazaro by Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the front will
propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro
through midweek.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure gradient persists across the offshore waters of
Central America and Colombia, supporting moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas. A few showers and isolated
thunderstorms are occurring in the nearshore and offshore waters
from Costa Rica to Colombia and also off El Salvador.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across the region as a weak pressure gradient prevails. This will
support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas
through at least midweek. In the Gulf of Papagayo, mainly gentle
to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas are expected
through the forecast period.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A weak cold front extends from a 1014 mb low pres centered SW of
Guadalupe Island to 23N133W. A few light showers are noted near
this boundary. A 1021 mb high pressure system located near
31N145W extends a weak ridge into our waters, resulting in
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds from the ITCZ to 20N and
west of 115W. In the eastern waters, a weak low pressure along
the monsoon trough is sustaining moderate to locally fresh winds
and seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas are present.

For the forecast, a new cold front will reach the NW waters tonight
followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas in additional
pulses of long period NW swell. This swell event will propagate across
much of the waters N of 25N by Mon night, and N of 23N and E of 130W
by Tue night. High pressure in the wake of the front will support
moderate to fresh winds in the trade wind zone toward midweek. At
that time, the high pressure center is forecast to be located over
the NW corner of the forecast area. Looking ahead, another cold
front is expected to reach the NW waters Wed night into Thu.

$$
Delgado