628
AXPZ20 KNHC 072235 AAA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Updated
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2335 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026

Updated Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 24.8N 125.3W, or about 580
nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico at 07/2100 UTC, moving
west-northwest at 07 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure has
risen to 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts
to 60 kt. Peak seas have lowered to near 21 ft. Latest satellite
imagery shows that Marie is a sheared system, with its center
having become exposed to the northwest of numerous moderate
convection that reach within 120 nm of the center in the SE and
S quadrants. Marie is forecast to turn to the northwest over the
next couple of days, and is forecast to become a post-tropical
remnant low on Wed. Swells generated by Marie will continue to
affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and
southern California during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 86W north of 04N. It is
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is from 07N to 14N between 82W and 86W.

A tropical wave has its axis along 108W from 04N to 19N. It is
moving westward at about 10 kt. This wave is depicted on visible
imagery. The imagery shows increasing numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection from 07N to 15N between 105W and 108W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the northwest portion of
Colombia westward across northern Costa Rica to 10N85W to
08.5N98W to 12N111W to 11N124W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between
134W-140W, and from 05N to 09N between 110W-118W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between
100W AND 104W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Updated

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Marie located about 580 nm west-southwest of
Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

A ridge axis noses southeastward behind Marie from 30N120W to
near 26N117W. The related pressure gradient is generally allowing
for light to gentle winds over the Baja California offshore
waters. Southwest to west swell from Marie are producing seas of
7 to 10 ft over the outer offshore waters from 30N to Punta
Eugenia to the northwest corner of the offshore waters from Punta
Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate or weaker winds and mostly
moderate seas are over the rest of the Baja California offshore
waters. Moderate or lighter winds along with moderate seas are
over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over some sections of
the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will gradually weaken as
it moves to near 25.2N 126.2W late tonight with maximum
sustained winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt, to near 26.3N 127.4W Tue
afternoon, become post-tropical and move to near 28.0N 128.4W
late Tue night, weaken to a remnant low near 30.0N 129.6W Wed
afternoon, then move to near 32.2N 131.1W Thu morning and
dissipate north of 30N Fri afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore
waters of Baja California and over some sections of the Gulf of
California tonight into Tue as Marie moves farther away from the
forecast waters. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is expected to begin late Tue night into early Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh northeast to east winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo
region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell.
Light to gentle winds along with moderate seas are elsewhere
over these waters.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over some portions of
the offshore waters, primarily south of northern Nicaragua.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support
moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the
Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. High
pressure building north of the area by Wed will lead to
strong gap winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly
reaching near gale speeds Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to
fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed night, then
diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are
expected elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information
on Tropical Storm Marie located about 580 nm west-southwest of
Punta Eugenia, Mexico.

Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the
northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh northeast
to east winds along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in east swell are
over the far western waters north of 20N and west of about 135W.
These conditions are forecast to merge with those associated to
Tropical Storm Marie in about 24 hours. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder
of the tropical eastern Pacific, with the exception of higher
seas of 6 to 9 ft in north to northeast swell generated by
Tropical Storm Marie over the waters north of 13N between 118W
and 135W.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will gradually weaken as
it moves to near 25.2N 126.2W late tonight with maximum sustained
winds 40 kt gusts to 50 kt, to near 26.3N 127.4W Tue afternoon,
become post-tropical and move to near 28.0N 128.4W late Tue
night, weaken to a remnant low near 30.0N 129.6W Wed afternoon,
then move to near 32.2N 131.1W Thu morning and dissipate north of
30N Fri afternoon.

Long-period northwest to north swell is merging with cross-
equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell south of about 2N and
between 110W and 125W. This swell area is forecast to expand
eastward through Wed as the primary swell direction becomes
northwest to north, Seas from this swell are expected to
be 7 to 9 ft. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is located
several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of southwestern
Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a
tropical depression could form later this week while the system
generally west-northwestward.

$$
Aguirre