495
AXPZ20 KNHC 052140
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Oct 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Priscilla, the tenth hurricane of the 2025 Eastern Pacific Season,
is centered near 16.4N 107.1W at 05/2100 UTC, moving north-
northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 135 NM SE
semicircle, and 90 nm NW semicircle. A cluster of moderate to
strong convection is W of Cabo Corrientes affecting the waters
from 19.5N to 21.5N between 106W and 109.5W. Peak seas are near
24 ft. On the forecast track, the center of the system is
expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico through the early part of this week.
Additional strengthening is expected during the next several
days, and Priscilla is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane
later this week. Outer bands from Priscilla will bring heavy rain
to portions of southwestern Mexico through Monday. Across
coastal portions of Michoacn and far western Guerrero,
additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with
local amounts up to 6 inches. Across Colima, western Jalisco, and
the rest of Guerrero along the coast, 1 to 3 inches of
additional rainfall are expected. This rainfall will bring a risk
of flash flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Swells
generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the coast of
southwestern Mexico and will reach portions of the coast of west-
central Mexico and the southern Baja California peninsula by
Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Octave strengthens and becomes the ninth hurricane of the 2025
East Pacific Hurricane Season. It is centered near 16.0N 123.3W
at 05/2100 UTC, moving northeast at 5 kt. A turn toward the east
and east-southeast is expected on Monday, followed by a gradual
increase in forward speed. Estimated minimum central pressure is
987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85
kt. Little change in strength is expected today, followed by a
gradual weakening trend beginning on Monday. Peak seas are near
20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 75
nm of center.

Please read the latest NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave and Priscilla NHC Forecasts/Advisories and Public
Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 12N97W, then resumes
SW of Octave from 11N127W to 08N135W. the ITCZ extends from
08N135W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated
with Octave and Priscilla, scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 80W and 98W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
recently upgraded Hurricane Priscilla. Scatterometer and
altimeter data indicate a very large area of winds and seas
associated with this hurricane.

The SW Mexican offshore waters from Jalisco to Guerrero are being
affected by Hurricane Priscilla. Heavy rainfall associated with
Priscilla will impact coastal sections of southwestern Mexico
through Monday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly
in areas of higher terrain. Farther north, the pressure gradient
between both hurricanes Priscilla and Octave, and a broad ridge
extending SE to near 22N115W is supporting moderate to locally
fresh NW winds and moderate to rough seas in NW swell N of Cabo
San Lucas. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are elsewhere in
the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, Priscilla will move to 16.8N 107.3W Mon morning,
17.7N 108.1W Mon afternoon, 18.6N 109.1W Tue morning, 19.5N
110.4W Tue afternoon, 20.4N 111.7W Wed morning, and 21.4N 113.0W
Wed afternoon. Priscilla will weaken to a tropical storm near
23.6N 115.4W Thu afternoon. Elsewhere, a ridge will continue to
dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through
Mon, supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San
Lucas.

Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form off
the southern coast of Mexico by midweek. Gradual development of
this system is likely thereafter, and a tropical depression could
form during the latter part of the week while moving slowly
west- northwestward, near or parallel to the coast of Mexico.
This system has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation
through 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms persist across the offshore
waters of Central America and Colombia. Winds and seas could b e
higher near thunderstorms. N of the monsoon trough, light to
gentle winds and moderate seas are noted while mainly moderate
southerly winds and moderate seas prevail S of it.

For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern
across most of the region this week under a weak pressure gradient.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected south of the monsoon
trough while light to gentle winds will prevail to the N of it.
Southerly swell will continue to propagate across the region bringing
moderate seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Looking ahead, winds may increase
to fresh speeds across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador
by the middle of the week as a low pressure develops along the monsoon
trough before shifting westward into the Tehuantepec region.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Hurricanes Octave and Priscilla.

Outside of Octave and Priscilla, a surface ridge dominates the
waters N of 20N and W of 115W. subtropical E Pacific waters to
the west of 115W. Mainly moderate winds and moderate seas are
observed under the influence of this system. Winds increase to
fresh speeds over the NW corner of the forecast area due to the
pressure gradient between a surface trough near 140W and the
ridge, and also NW of Octave due to the pressure gradient between
the ridge and the tropical cyclone.

For the forecast, Hurricane Octave will move to 16.2N 122.5W Mon
morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 16.3N 121.3W Mon afternoon,
16.1N 120.2W Tue morning, 15.7N 119.1W Tue afternoon, 15.5N 117.9W
Wed morning, and 15.8N 115.9W Wed afternoon. Octave will dissipate
Thu afternoon. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
forecast elsewhere this week.

$$
GR