841
AXPZ20 KNHC 262214 CCA
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 15.4N 106.1W, or about 240
nm SSW of Manzanillo, Mexico at 26/2100 UTC, moving west at 5
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are
currently around 23 ft or 7 m. Vance is continuing to be
inflicted by westerly vertical wind shear. Satellite imagery
shows numerous strong convection within 150 nm of the center in
the N semicircle and 30 nm of the center in the S semicircle.
Vance is forecast to make a turn to the northwest on Tue,
followed by a northward turn on Wed. Gradual weakening is
forecast during the next few days. Vance is expected to produce
2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches
possible, across southern Sinaloa, southwest Durango and coastal
sections of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and Michoacan. This rainfall
may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along
steep terrain. Swell generated by Vance will affect portions of
the coast of southern, southwestern and west-central Mexico during
the next few days. This swell is likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance
NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from along the coast of NW
Colombia to across central Panama, and continues to 08N82W to
06N90W and to 12N100W. It resumes well southwest of Vance
at 09.5N110W to 06N121W to low pressure near 07.5N133W 1012 mb
and to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is from 03S to 06N between 80W-86W, also from 02N to 07N between
96W-100W. Similar activity is within 120 nm south of trough
between 131W-135W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between
133W-135W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either
side of the trough between 120W-122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

Please see the Special Features section above for information on
Tropical Storm Vance.

Latest Ascat scatterometer data reveals that the Gulf of
Tehuantepec north to northeast gale-force gap winds have lowered
to just below gale-force maxing out to 30 kt. Seas with these
winds are 8 to 11 ft. Moderate or lighter winds are elsewhere
over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed
southeast and southwest long-priod swell. The exception is
offshore Baja California north of about Punta Eugenia, where
mostly moderate northwest to north fresh winds are present as
suggested in the latest Ascat scatterometer data pass. Fresh
northwest to north winds are just north of 29N. Seas over these
waters are 4 to 6 ft. Seas of 3 to 5 ft in southeast long-period
swell are out ahead of Vance are in the extreme southern Gulf of
California and southward from there to 23N, then increase to 6 to 8
ft toward Cabo Corrientes.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to gradually
weaken as it moves to near 15.6N 106.9W late tonight, to near
16.7N 107.9W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt
gusts 55 kt, to near 18.1N 108.4W late Tue night, to near 19.8N
108.6W Wed afternoon, to near 21.3N 108.4W late Wed night with
maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, then weaken to a
remnant low near 22.6N 108.2W Thu afternoon. Vance is forecast to
dissipate Fri afternoon. Otherwise, the north to northeast strong
to near gale-force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are
expected to hold steady through tonight, then diminish to fresh
to strong speeds early on Tue as the gradient over southeastern
Mexico just north of the Tehuantepec region continues to relax.
Seas in the Gulf are expected to subside to below 8 ft on Tue.
Winds there will then pulse at fresh to strong speeds through Thu
night, but over a smaller area downstream of the Gulf. Winds
offshore Baja California Norte will change little through late
Wed. Moderate, or lighter winds along with moderate seas will
prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California through late
Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The latest Ascat scatterometer data pass highlighted fresh
northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream from
there to near 09N89W. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft
as indicated by a couple of satellite altimeter data passes.
The latest Ascat scatterometer data pass also shows moderate
to fresh northwest to north winds in the Gulf of Panama.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate, or lighter along with mostly
moderate seas, except slight seas continue nearshore Colombia.

The very active convection that earlier was offshore Ecuador,
Colombia and Panama has shifted westward and weakened.

For the forecast, the fresh northeast winds in and downstream of
the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds
through the end of the week. The fresh northwest to north winds
in the Gulf of Panama will diminish early Tue, then start up late
Wed night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
will continue elsewhere, except mainly slight nearshore Colombia.
Looking ahead, seas may build to a rough state in southwest south of
the Equator by the end of the week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

See Special Features section above for information on Tropical
Storm Vance.

High pressure covers the area generally north of about 18N and
west of 110W. A recent Ascat scatterometer data pass indicates
moderate to fresh trades from 14N to 18N between 120W and 130W,
or rather between the high pressure and a trough that extends
northward along 133W to 13N from a weak low pressure of 1010 mb
along the monsoon trough. A warm front dips into the northwest
part of the area from 30N139W to 28N138W. The related gradient is
producing fresh to locally strong southeast to south winds and
rough seas just southeast of 30N140W. Winds are moderate, or
lighter along with moderate seas across the remainder of the open
waters away from Vance.

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance is forecast to gradually
weaken as it moves to near 15.6N 106.9W late tonight, to near
16.7N 107.9W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt
gusts 55 kt, to near 18.1N 108.4W late Tue night, to near 19.8N
108.6W Wed afternoon, to near 21.3N 108.4W late Wed night with
maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt, then weaken to a
remnant low near 22.6N 108.2W Thu afternoon Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist into at least late
Wed. The fresh to locally strong southeast to south winds over
the northwest part of the area will diminish to mostly fresh
speeds by early on Wed as the warm front pulls away from the
region. A new set of southerly swell will continue to spread into
a portion of the south- central waters through late Wed,
building seas to the range of 7 to 10 ft south of about 04N and
between 105W and 128W by late Wed night. These seas are expected
to linger through at least Fri night.

$$
Aguirre